2014 was the hottest year in history. And this is only good for Russia, our climatologists and Western economists are sure.
“For a thousand years there hasn't been such warmth!” - we are reacting to weather anomalies just like that, in a philistine way. The first month of the year is not over yet, and weather records have already been broken. In Moscow on the Old New Year +3 (which has never happened in the entire history of meteorological observations), instead of Epiphany frosts - a flimsy zero … It's just now it's freezing!
But about a thousand years - not an emotional exaggeration at all, but a scientific fact. “The last decade is the warmest in a millennium, according to paleoclimatologists,” said Roman Vilfand, director of the Hydrometeorological Center of Russia (paleoclimatologists are scientists who study the history of climate in ancient times).
RECORD WITHOUT DOPING
And 2014 became the warmest year in history - more precisely, for 125 years that accurate weather observations are being conducted. Experts from the NOAA Climate Center (US National Atmosphere and Oceans Service) reported on the new achievement of global warming. The temperature on the planet turned out to be 0.69 degrees higher than the average for the twentieth century.
Until now, 2005 and 2010 had the hottest record. The past year "surpassed" them by four hundredths of a degree.
And one more point proving that global warming has not stalled at all (in recent years, many scientists have been talking about a “climatic pause”: the temperature seems to have stopped rising sharply). In 2005 and 2010, records were set with doping, in sports terms.
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Why? Because El Niño also threw firewood into the furnace. Recall: this is a phenomenon in which the water in the Pacific Ocean near the equator becomes warmer than usual. El Niño affects the weather around the globe, including raising the average temperature. There was no El Niño in 2014 - but the year still became unusually warm! Honest record.
However, the average temperature on the planet is the same as the average temperature in a hospital. While some countries are in fever with heat, others are chilled. If we take the data only from the Northern Hemisphere, 2014 will take only second place, the Hydrometeorological Center of Russia specified. The record remained for 2010.
However, the temperature in our hemisphere went off scale for the indicators of the last century, even stronger than the average for the planet - by 0.75 degrees. And the most serious anomalies were recorded in the Russian sector of the Arctic, China and Mongolia. Last year there was already 3 - 4 degrees warmer than the norm! Even in the most apocalyptic forecasts of global warming, such figures were predicted only by the end of the 21st century. But in the Arctic, the future has already arrived …
And what about Russia? 2014 was only in 6th place in terms of heat, exactly repeating the average temperature of 2013. 2007 remained out of competition in terms of heat. By the way, Russians lived through nine of the ten warmest years in the 21st century. The only exception is 1995.
SCIENCE STEALS DEGREE?
And now - about the pleasant. Is it getting warmer? Well, good! Both climatologists and economists are becoming increasingly optimistic. Earlier, remember, more and more horror stories were told about global warming: we will all be flooded, dried, roasted … They broke spears around the Kyoto Protocol, spent incredible billions on the fight against greenhouse gases …
Not the fact that in vain. But economists have calculated: even if the whole world strains to the full, global warming will only be able to win back a degree by the end of the century! There are different predictions about the exact figures, but schematically as follows: if you do nothing at all, it will get 4 degrees warmer. And if you take everything that humanity is only capable of, then on 3.
That is, the consequences of climate change will remain, perhaps a little softer. So maybe you should direct your efforts and money not to fight for the degree, but to adapt to the new climate? Not only that - to benefit from it and heal in the warmth of the song?
This is especially true for the northern countries. And first of all - for Russia.
- We live in the coldest country in the world. And global warming is generally positive for us. It all depends on the tasks, the ability to calculate the risks and benefits. Even ordinary rain can be both harmful and useful: if you have planted cucumbers, you need it, if you dry hay - no. So it is with global changes, - reasonably says the head of Roshydromet Alexander Frolov.
LET'S EAT, TAN, SAVE
In order to understand what are the benefits and where are the risks, Roshydromet prepared a report “On Climate Changes and Their Consequences on the Territory of the Russian Federation”.
The main advantages are:
● less fuel and electricity (and hence money) will have to be spent on heating - by the middle of the 21st century, savings will amount to 20 percent. In the north of the European part of Russia, batteries are already heating 5-10 days less than before. On the other hand, we will spend more on air conditioning in the summer.
● There will be more productive areas - primarily due to Siberia and the Urals. By the way, due to warming, wheat harvests on the planet have already increased by 40 percent. However, insect pests will feel more at ease. Colorado potato beetle, malaria mosquito and encephalitis mite will appear in places where it used to be too cold for them. And in the south, locusts are harmful to agriculture.
● Shipping routes in the Arctic are cleared of ice. In 15 - 20 years, the Arctic ice may disappear completely for one summer month. The Northern Sea Route will develop. It is easier to develop the Arctic shelf rich in minerals.
● It will become more comfortable to live in the northern regions. New resorts will appear on the shores of the Baltic. On the Black and Azov Seas, the beach season will become longer. Of course, there is also a minus: the permafrost is melting (and under it - 60 percent of the Russian territory!). It is dangerous for buildings, roads, pipelines.
RUSSIA BETWEEN NORWAY AND CHAD
Their foreign colleagues agree with Russian scientists, which only adds credibility. The international company The Eco Experts recently released a rating: they compared the probability of weather anomalies in different countries and their readiness to adapt to the new climate. Change the economy, agriculture, urban life, protect against natural disasters, and so on. Experts combined all this into a kind of index called the ND-Gain Index. The rating has been published annually since 1995.
Scientists have colored the map of the world in accordance with the results of the rating (see the map): the "greener" the country, the more comfortable it is, and the "redder", the more unbearable. The most "green" - Norway, New Zealand, Sweden, Finland, Denmark.
Note: Our northern neighbors will benefit the most from the warming climate! It is understandable - as in Russia, winters will become softer, summers are more gentle, you will need less money for heating, and southern plants will grow in the fields of Scandinavia … Technologies, scientific developments and the economy are in perfect order, so the inhabitants of Northern Europe will not miss their benefits. New Zealanders have the same story, only in the Southern Hemisphere.
The most "red" - Congo, Central African Republic, Eritrea, Burundi, Chad. In hot yellow Africa it is already sultry and dry, and it will get even hotter. And there is no money, what kind of adaptation is there …
Russia is somewhere in the middle of the "green" zone - 32nd out of 192 countries. That is, global warming will not stress us much, but rather make life more comfortable. It will be very pleasant in Europe as a whole. But Ukraine, Romania, Serbia and Georgia will have to sweat a lot. But, of course, not like in the "burning" African countries.