It is necessary to clearly distinguish between the firm ground of facts and the swamp of fiction, since it is precisely this uncertainty that makes it possible for conspiracyism to penetrate from the periphery into the center of public life.
Fortunately, we have the tools at our disposal to determine if we are talking about fiction or conspiracy theory. These tools include common sense, knowledge of history, and the ability to recognize stereotypes and clichés.
Painting by artist Vasya Lozhkin
Photo: kotosun.ru
Posted by Daniel Pipes, Research Fellow at the Hoover Institute, Stanford University, and Professor at Harvard University. The material is published in an abridged and adapted translation from English.
Distinguishing between real and imaginary conspiracies or conspiracies and conspiracy theories is an absolutely necessary process. You cannot put on the same board those sounded in the 1930s. Winston Churchill's warnings about the secret intentions of the Nazis and the delusional fabrications of his contemporary Hitler about a Jewish conspiracy. It is necessary to clearly distinguish between the firm ground of facts and the swamp of fiction, since it is precisely this uncertainty that makes it possible for conspiracyism to penetrate from the periphery into the center of public life.
Fortunately, we have the tools at our disposal to determine if we are talking about fiction or conspiracy theory. These tools include common sense, knowledge of history, and the ability to recognize stereotypes and clichés.
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1. Common sense
Not everything that is permissible from the point of view of logic is permissible from the point of view of common sense. Not all enemies seek power over the world; accidents happen by themselves; churches, underground tunnels and senatorial chairs are not the murder weapon; do not suspect Catholics, Jews or Democrats of using such methods. As a scientist-logician noted, “when we put forward a hypothesis to explain something, we are not operating in a vacuum. We have a wealth of knowledge at our disposal, consisting of beliefs, principles and theories, backed up from our side by numerous proofs."
Common sense accepts simple explanations. Conspiracy theories, on the other hand, are complex and confusing. They need an interweaving of cunning and deceit and such monstrous ingenuity of the mind that in the end they collapse at the root of their own improbability. Take, for example, the murder of J. F. Kennedy. It made no sense for some force to stop choosing Lee Harvey Oswald, for there would be too many participants in the conspiracy. For Oswald to be in the building of the Texas Book Store, from which he could fire an aimed shot at Kennedy's motorcade, it would take four people to work together, and hundreds of people would be involved in the whole operation. This contradicts the logical principle of simplicity: of two equally substantiated versions, the more convincing one should be recognized as the one that requires fewer new assumptions.
Two conclusions follow from this. First, conspiracies are realized only under certain circumstances (murders that had reason to take place in Moscow are meaningless in Washington). Second, the more effort it takes for an alleged conspiracy, the more dubious its reality. The version about the preparation of a palace coup makes sense; the version about the preparation of the Great French Revolution is madness.
2. Knowledge of history
Knowledge of the past easily reveals the impracticability of most conspiracies. Unforeseen accidents destroy the plans of the conspirators, comrades-in-arms betray, enemies recognize the threat in time. Generally, the more complex the plot, the less likely it is to work. Niccolo Machiavelli, a witness to many intrigues, notes that a conspiracy "is always fraught with innumerable difficulties and dangers," and points to widespread failure: "There have been many conspiracies, but history shows that only a few have been successful."
The philosopher Karl Popper continues this thought: “First, they do not happen very often and do not change the basic features of social life. Assuming that conspiracies stop, the problems we face will not change fundamentally. Second, I argue that conspiracies rarely work out. As a rule, the results achieved absolutely do not coincide with the intended goals (let us turn, for example, to the Nazi conspiracy)."
Large-scale collusion in the Middle East by European, Israeli and American leaders has been unsuccessful; moreover, they ricocheted against the conspirators themselves. The British and French governments secretly divided the Middle East under the Sykes-Picot agreement, but soon lost their dominance. In the case of the Lavon affair, Israeli intelligence tried to blame Gamal Abdel Nasser for the violence against the Americans in Egypt, but was exposed. In the case of the Iran-Contra scandal, the US authorities secretly sold weapons to Iran and were exposed. Similar cases occur all over the world.
3. Explicit stereotypes and clichés
If you look at the main features, it becomes obvious how much in common conspiracy theories have in essence. They are distinguished from conventional thinking by two main features: the same evidence and versions. Here are the clear signs of conspiracy:
Mystery. By creating deceptive appearances, conspiracyists easily devalue generally known information and seek out bizarre and little-known facts. Due to the conspiracy's penchant for mysticism, the data they have selected are immediately striking.
Conspiracy. Usually, conspiracyists resort to impersonal constructions ("they were waiting for him"), but sometimes they use more open forms of communication, for example: "In order not to compromise persons who may be involved in this case, I prefer not to disclose the sources of my information yet."
Use of forged documents. Falsifications are strong evidence of conspiracy. Fear of the Templars grew as their story gradually became overgrown with fabricated facts. The pinnacle of the "posthumous glory" of the templars was the publication in 1877 of the "Latin Rule", which seemed to be compiled six centuries earlier. The publication exposed the Order to secret and obscene practices. In a treatise published in 1614, the apostate Jesuit exposed the dark deeds and intentions of the Society of Jesus. Napoleon in 1811 issued a forged Testament of Peter the Great, dated 1709.
In it, the tsar outlined the plans of Russian hegemony in Europe and predicted with incredible accuracy the events that happened in the century after his death. In the 90s. XIX century. The American Protective Association has issued many forged documents. The most important of these was the false encyclical of Leo XIII, addressed to American Catholics, in which the Pope urged his overseas flock to exterminate all heretics (i.e., non-Catholics).
However, the so-called "Protocols of the Elders of Zion", fabricated in France and Russia on the basis of several earlier writings, have become a fake for all times, and some of the primary sources are primitive slander.
Discrepancies. Conspiracyists repeat the same basic statements with minor variations and prominent inconsistencies. For half a century, American right-wing reactionary groups, one after another, raised the alarm, warning of enemy forces concentrated on the border of Mexico with the United States. During World War II, one extremist leader wrote: “200,000 Jewish communists are ready to cross the Mexican border.
If allowed, they will abuse all women and children left without protection.” In 1962, the Minutemen raised the alarm about Chinese Communist forces stationed on the Mexican border and preparing to launch an invasion. A year later, the John Birch Society outlined the threat more specifically: 35,000 Chinese troops are poised to invade San Diego.
In the 80s. The Posse Comitatus anti-government taxation movement turned the "Chinese threat" into thirty-five thousand Vietcong hiding in southern Texas. Subsequently, the Russian troops gathered in Mexico were mentioned. Jews, Chinese, Vietnamese, Russians - fears are unlikely to identify the face of the enemy. There is a "paranoid style".
Redundancy of factual material and overly pedantic references. It seems that conspiracy theorists are trying to overwhelm the reader with names, dates, and facts. In proving that the CIA was involved in the distribution of cocaine in Los Angeles, Gary Webb gives such dizzying details from the lives of a large number of people that the reader can hardly follow the thread of his evidence.
A pile of theories. The failure of one conspiracy theory (for example, no "extra" bullets were actually found in Kennedy's body) is immediately explained with the help of another (the bullets were secretly extracted by doctors).
Sweeping away any contradictions in evidence. Conspiracyists begin with a conclusion and look for justifications to reject all irrelevant facts. An aide to Jim Garrison, a leading "expert" on the Kennedy assassination, describes his boss's method: “We usually pick facts and then deduce a theory from them. Garrison, on the other hand, first deduced the theory and then picked the facts. If the fact does not fit, Garrison will say that this is a CIA rigging."
Independence from the change of times. Centuries go by, generations change, but in the world of conspiracy fantasies, little changes. The most striking example of this is the Templars, a Catholic military-monastic order that appeared around 1119 and destroyed by the French king in 1314. Almost seven hundred years have passed since no one has seen a living Templar, but the mystical veil of the oldest "secret society" continues to live … The Bavarian Illuminati have been gone for over two centuries, but they remain a powerful force in the conspiracy minds. The fascist faction of the Mothers of the United States of America accused the Sanhedrin, a council of rabbis that ceased to exist in 66 AD. e. - that he provoked Hitler to attack Poland (in order to discredit the Fuhrer).
A chivalrous attitude to facts. Sometimes the facts are rife. At first, the Rosicrucians "were so ubiquitous that their existence was called into question." The very idea of this organization appeared in three fantastic books, published in 1614, 1615 and 1616. Some readers (especially in Germany and England) took their existence on faith to such an extent that they began to look for opportunities to join the order and join the ancient secrets.
In the centuries that followed, charlatans and imaginary conspirators such as Filippo Buonarroti and Eliphas Levi used the mysterious name "rose and cross" for their own purposes. In 1915, the Ancient Mystical Order Rosae Crucis was founded in San Jose, California, transforming the ghost into a rigid organization with divisions and protocols. Cases with wholly made up testimonies are also remarkable in their own way.
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Finally, there are several basic considerations recurring in conspiracy theories.
Everyone is striving for power. The rest is ashes. In the views of conspiracyists, human interests are limited to the struggle for power, and the more influential a force, the less logic in its actions. Mercy is deception. Freemasons pretend to profess Christianity, seeking exclusively to "prepare for its overthrow." According to the anti-Semitic fake, "every person strives for power, everyone would become a dictator if he could, and there are few people who would not want to sacrifice the general welfare in order to secure their own." Wealth and sexual satisfaction are usually in the first place among the benefits of the attained power. "They worship no god but Mammon."
Charity is a hidden form of profit. If someone does good, it means that he is latently looking for benefits for himself. It would seem that the great powers after the Second World War gave independence to their colonies in order to benefit their peoples. In fact, the "international economic community" has only benefited from their immature independence and socialist fever.
The ensuing collapse of the economies in the newly independent states rid the former metropolises of competitors. Thus, the developed countries provided themselves with cheap raw materials. Foreign aid is a mechanism for deepening dependence, and loans to poor countries are a way of "domination and control." There is also a catch behind other forms of generosity: Jews helped black Americans fight for civil rights because it was commercially profitable.
The prize is given by the organizer. Whoever benefits from the event, he served as its cause. If it is known who won, it is clear who was plotting. Ask "cui bono?" (which in Italian means "who wins", "who benefits from it"), and the answer will point to the conspirators. The French Revolution gave Jews the right to vote, so the Jews were the cause. Or was Napoleon Jewish? The business community, which needed new markets, benefited most from imperialist policies - hence, they were the invisible mover of the British Empire.
Among those accused of assassinating Kennedy are representatives of nearly thirty different social groups, and each time the justification of guilt comes down to the benefits from the death of the president. If Saddam Hussein's invasion of Kuwait was financially beneficial to the Soviet Union, then Moscow inspired the Iraqi president to take this step. Others see these events as American benefit - hence the United States was the instigator. Boris Yeltsin won the most from the coup d'état attempt in 1991, hence it follows that he was supposed to be the director of the conspiracy (he must have orchestrated it).
Conspiracies rule history. Other forces are not counted. Whether it's a lost crop or the First World War, someone invisible is responsible for it all. Conventional explanations of history are completely useless. Ideological confusion, economic difficulties, victory in the war - all these are symptoms, not causes. True strength is the "great organization and powerful financial resources" used by the conspirators. From this point of view, historical giants such as Napoleon and Lenin become mere pawns, and in their place come people who actually did not have any power or did not exist at all. In this upside-down world, the strongest turn out to be the weakest: "The Pope is almost in the position of a prisoner in the Vatican, just like the President of the United States is imprisoned in the White House, the Queen of England is in Buckingham, and Putin is in the Kremlin."
To others, it seems that the entire course of history is directed by a Jewish conspiracy: Jews are many, they are everywhere and they are well organized. Others place all the blame on secret societies. As one American journalist put it, “The history of conspiracy theories is the history of secret societies. The history of secret societies is a history of conspiracies. That's the whole history of civilization."
Painting by artist Vasya Lozhkin
Photo: fisha.ru
Important events take place exclusively behind closed doors, where only initiates are allowed. The rest can think as much as they want that it is they who make decisions, but "the real force that elects presidents and prime ministers is invisible to the public - it is behind the scenes." Take the French Revolution, for example. The conspiracy versions carefully trace the plans of secret societies and gatherings of various kinds of dark personalities. Elections and public politics generally exist as a diversion. According to the American racist, democracy is simply "a hubbub that is only raised to replace the American system of government with despotism."
The conspiratorial view of history is very different from academic science. Science draws conclusions about the causes of change only by analyzing numerous factors. Richard Hofstedter writes: “The characteristic feature of the 'paranoid style' is not that interpreters everywhere in history see treason and collusion, but that the 'colossal' conspiracy appears to them as the main force behind historical events. History becomes a conspiracy."
There is nothing random or ridiculous. There is no place for chance in the conspiracy worldview. As the philosopher Karl Popper explains, from this point of view, whatever happens in society, "is the result of a purposeful design developed by some powerful individuals or groups." William Guy Carr is more specific: “The better we get to know the techniques by which the Secret Powers operate behind the facade of international politics, the more obvious it becomes that murders are passed off as accidents or suicides, sabotage is passed off as negligence, miscarriages of justice and deadly stupidities are committed by excuse."
Cause and effect change places: "If there is an effect, there must always be a cause." There is no room for a person with his weaknesses, machines are operating all around. Conspiracyists are in awe of the incredible abilities of their enemies. E Pluribus Unum, a member of the American right-wing group, explains: “Nothing in government happens by accident. If something happens, know that it was intended."
Stalin's show trials and the "Great Terror" linked accidents in the Soviet national economy (and such accidents did occur in large numbers, because during the forced industrialization of human life little attention was paid) with someone's malicious intent: "there can be no talk of accidents." From this Stalin concluded that there were millions of saboteurs working for hostile imperialism, and almost all of them were punished by him. AIDS also could not appear by itself, but was created in the laboratory by evil forces that seek to destroy millions or even billions of people. Conspiracyists are looking for traces of the "invisible hand" interference even in such natural phenomena as earthquakes and hurricanes.
Appearances are deceiving. Life is a scripted game. To succeed, the conspiracy must be disguised and presented as something opposite. " Apparent gains are losses; losses are actually beneficial. The victims torture themselves, but the torturers are innocent. “Obvious means not real; and the present is certainly bad. " A kind family man, an honest entrepreneur, a patriot turns out to be a two-faced traitor. For a reasonable person, the absence of evidence against a conspiracy indicates the absence of a conspiracy, but for conspiracyists "the best evidence is the absence of any evidence." Serenity speaks of the secret actions of the enemy: Stalin believed that the "outwardly safe" situation was evidence of a "quiet war against Soviet power."
The belief that appearances are deceiving entails four main mistakes: the search for enemies, the existence of conspiracies, dictatorship and freedom (where none of this exists).
The visible enemies should actually be friends. The Jews themselves have created anti-Semitism and are using it successfully. The Elders of Zion made it clear: "We need anti-Semitism to rule our lesser brothers." Anti-Semites pour water on the mill of the Jewish conspiracy. A similar suspicion concerns secret societies. Jesuits and Illuminati are not enemies, but secret allies. Or: the core of the Masonic movement consists of members of the Society of Jesus (contrary to the papal condemnation of Freemasonry).
Many on the right believe that Marx was not at all an outstanding fighter against capitalism, but its agent. Nesta Webster, the most famous spokesman for British fascism, insisted that Marx "was not sincere in denouncing the capitalist system." Famed historian Oswald Spengler went even further, arguing that Western bankers created and run the communist movement.
“Any proletarian movement, even a communist one,” he argued, “acts (although its idealist leaders do not fully realize this) in the interests of Money, moves in the direction that is desirable for Money; and as long as Money wants it. Alfred Rosenberg, a Nazi theorist, added this opinion to the ideology of the Third Reich. Spengler's statement is still repeated by the right.
Best friends really should be enemies. This statement is less common than the previous one, but it also finds widespread support. The United States did not enter world wars of its own free will, but due to the machinations of British agents, especially those on Wall Street. The two pro-Israel writers take all the American and European aid to Israel at odds and claim that "the secret prejudices that Western governments have against Jews have been and remain the only significant obstacle to peace in the Middle East."
Together, these two illusions became the cause of an almost surreal conversation that took place in November 1940 between Hitler and Stalin's People's Commissar for Foreign Affairs Vyacheslav Molotov. The German dictator argued that the Americans were simply eager to take over the British colonies, and this at a time when America was already beginning to help Britain. Hitler wanted to convince the Soviets that "Roosevelt is struggling to maintain the semblance of order in his long-bankrupt state."
But since the Anglo-American alliance did not intend to fall apart, it itself chose to attack its recent ally. Hitler's predictions that "England and America will soon begin fighting each other with the greatest fury imaginable" fully reflect the nature of the war he himself waged against Russia.
Freedom is compulsion. For nearly two millennia (from AD 70 to 1948), the Jews had no centralized authority. However, conspiracy theorists claim that the wise men of Zion ruled over the Jews for centuries and led it to world domination. Conspiracyists ignore the proverbial Jewish disunity (“where there are two Jews, there are three synagogues”).
In the Jews, the conspiracyists see the drilled soldiers who unquestioningly carry out the orders of the all-powerful Jewish Politburo. Dissimilarities and contradictions are nothing more than a Jewish ploy designed to fool dull-witted observers. Atheist Jews and anti-Semitic Jews are as much conspirators as the faithful. Such "non-Jewish Jews" as Trotsky can deny their Jewishness in word and deed as much as they want, but by doing so they only confirm their loyalty to the Jewish authorities.
Capitalism is not a competitive system, but a hierarchy obedient to the top. Entrepreneurs are only given the opportunity to carry out the orders of politicians. The UN, despite its apparent weakness, almost completely controls the representatives of the American government elected by the people. Then there is the Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA), a completely harmless government organization that gets involved in cases of natural disasters. Under her guise, in their opinion, a structure is hidden, which in the future will become the executor of the laws of wartime. In each of these examples, the conspiracyists endow civil institutions with dictatorial powers.
Compulsion is freedom. In contrast, when it comes to dictatorship, conspiracyists cannot discern a monolithic system in former totalitarian regimes such as Nazi, Soviet, Chinese, Vietnamese, or Iraqi. In such cases, referring to the general line of the party, they see conflicts ("moderate" and "extreme") where there is no struggle, and downplay the number of victims remaining on the conscience of these regimes, not noticing real attempts at conspiracies.
One author of the 50s. reached the point where he saw in Stalin "only an agent of international financial circles appointed to govern Russia." He also called Hitler a conductor of a "moderate fascist policy" who came under the control of a group of "Nazi military caste". The author of studies on the problems of mass culture spoke about the Vietnam war in this way: "If it were not for the prevalence of prejudice about conspiracies, we would never have been drawn into a war against which we have been so much warned and which is being waged in a region strategically of no interest to us." …
Curiously, conspiracyists downplay the power of governments, considering it incomparable with the influence of Jews or secret societies. The rightists were convinced that the Soviet Union was a manifestation of Jewish power. Both the right and the left continue to believe that hidden forces dominate Washington. Thus, the cliché “appearances is deceiving” is used over and over again: minor figures (Jewishness) or not at all insignificant (Freemasonry) are ascribed more importance than really powerful players like the American or Soviet government.
The extreme conviction that "appearances are deceiving" is itself a sign of lack of judgment. Conspiracy turns marginal groups (Jews, Freemasons) into the most powerful, and worthy governments turn out to be the embodiment of evil.
Fear of the harmless and well-meaning blinds the conspiracyists, hiding from them the real face of totalitarian regimes. They see despotism in New York free-thinking, not in Stalin's Russia. Conspirationism leads to a complete inability to make objective assessments.