A kilometer-long asteroid is rushing towards us. NASA experts have reduced the chances of it hitting the Earth. But the threat was not canceled at all.
Ben Rozitis and his colleagues at the University of Tennessee reminded mankind of the threat posed by the asteroid 1950 DA. A block with a diameter of one kilometer 300 meters flies so that March 16, 2880 will be at the minimum distance from the Earth. A collision is not excluded. That is, Armageddon.
In the journal Nature, scientists published an article in which they explained: do not try to blow up an asteroid that promises the end of the world - this will only increase the chances of its collision with our planet. Calculations show that the safest and most effective way of protection would be to launch a certain vehicle to the celestial body, which would fly nearby and by its gravity would knock the asteroid out of the way, deflecting it away from the Earth. Such an apparatus is called a "gravity tractor".
Asteroid 1950 DA is believed to be double asteroid at the University of Tennessee. And its parts are held next to each other by insignificant forces equivalent to the weight of a 25-cent coin. Therefore, the explosion - even a very powerful, thermonuclear one - first of all scatters the currently combined blocks to the sides. Their trajectories will become unpredictable.
This is how scientists schematically depicted the insignificant forces that hold together the parts of the asteroid.
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After 8 centuries
Asteroid 1950 DA was discovered a long time ago - more than 60 years ago. He was seen on the Day of the Soviet Army - February 23, 1950. On the eve of the new year - 2000 - they noticed it again. And in 2001 - even photographed from the Arecibo Observatory in Puerto Rico. The pictures, however, came out bad. They didn't even show the entire shape of the asteroid. But they were allowed to determine the trajectory.
This is what part of the asteroid 1950 AD looks like
Then NASA experts determined: the chances of colliding with the Earth for this block are 1 in 300 - two times higher than that of any other celestial body known today. A catastrophic convergence will occur on March 16, 2880.
In 2014, NASA recalculated the probability based on radar data obtained in 2012. And they reduced it to 1 in 4000. But even this result cannot be considered final. It will not be possible to determine the fate of our planet more precisely until 2032, when 1950 DA will again fall into the field of radar.
America will simply be washed away
If you believe the scientists, then on March 16, 2880, the earthlings will have a little time to pray for salvation, to hide somewhere. Or say goodbye to loved ones. On this day, a kind of window will appear - 20 minutes, when the asteroid either crashes into the Earth or sweeps past at a minimum distance.
Of course, experts are wondering what will happen if the asteroid does fall. This will most likely happen in the Atlantic Ocean off the east coast of the United States. And it looks like the Americans will be washed away: the height of the rising wave will be 174 meters. Such a wall of water will collapse on the shore. And this despite the fact that the speed with which the asteroid will fall will not be the highest - 15 kilometers per second. After all, the lump will not hit with direct fire, but will touch our planet, catching up with it in orbit.
The power of the explosion will be almost 45 thousand megatons in TNT equivalent, which is tens of thousands of times more than the atomic bomb that fell on Hiroshima.
Although, perhaps not even a tsunami will be the worst test for coastal areas. Not so long ago, the situation was outlined by Norwegian scientists led by Galen Gisler from the University of Oslo. They used the latest program, which was originally designed to computer simulate nuclear explosions. And it turned out that the air shock wave and spray, lifted by the asteroid into the atmosphere, will bring down hurricane winds of unprecedented strength.
“Billions of tons of water will shoot up at a speed of 300 meters per second,” Giesler frightens. - Climb 20 kilometers. And spreading in the transverse direction, they will sweep away everything in their path.
Again, the United States will be the first on the path of a merciless soul.
The fall of an asteroid will cause a tsunami of monstrous height
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Still not ends
The end of the world, coming in 8 centuries, is far from the only one. After all, our Earth is under the gun of several asteroids that can cause trouble. The most nasty until recently was considered the "God of darkness" Apophis (2004 NM4), a collision with which was expected on April 13, 2029. The probability that this asteroid with a diameter of about 400 meters will crash into the Earth was, according to preliminary estimates, 3 to 100. Then the experts reduced it, eliminating such a possibility altogether.
That is, in 2029, humanity is not threatened with a blow from space. But it is possible later - in 2036 and in 2068 during the subsequent approaches of Apophis with the Earth. The odds are 1 in 250,000 and 1 in 400,000, respectively. Small. And since there is at least some possibility of an apocalypse, then in principle it is not excluded.
In the XXII century, asteroid 101955, aka 1999 RQ36, will keep humanity at bay. Will threaten from 2169 to 2199. In these 30 years, the chances of a collision are on average 1 in 1000. The most probable date for approaching the Earth is 2182.
By the way, asteroid 1999 RQ36 looks very strange - like an alien probe. Read more about this A black pyramid has been discovered on an asteroid flying towards Earth.