People quite often make predictions for the future, relying on their own observations and certain facts, but often their expectations are not justified. Philip Tetlock, a professor at the University of Pennsylvania, set out to prove that virtually anyone can predict the future.
Philip Tetlock and journalist Dan Gardner have released a new book titled Super Forecasting: The Art and Science of Foresight. In his work, the professor from Pensselwani provides materials that he has been collecting for 10 years. Early in his career, Tetlock conducted a study involving several thousand experts. They made their predictions about politics, the military situation, science and other areas. Years later, as the scientist noted, a small percentage of predictions came true and the ability of experts to predict the future turned out to be very mediocre. For 10 years, Tetlock and his colleague Barbara Mellers have invited volunteers to participate in a "forecasting" project to determine which forecasting methods are most effective. The subjects were divided into five groups and a competition was arranged for them. In the period from 2011 to 2015, volunteers had to provide their predictions, confirming them with substantiated facts and information. As a result, Tetlock found out that super-forecasting is not always the lot of mathematical geniuses or physicists, but such people are invariably literate and have a special type of thinking.
In his book, Tetlock discusses the techniques you need to use to successfully super-predict. In this case, you should take into account a number of factors, be able to sort information and rely on the power of probability. The ability to think sensibly can make any real seer. More detailed information about the professor's book is provided by The Independent.
Liza Morskaya