Answering the main questions about the spread of Chinese pneumonia COVID-2019.
As of February 25, a total of 375 cases of coronavirus were recorded in European countries (most of them in Italy - 322 people). It seems to be a drop in the ocean, but what will happen in a month or two? Will there be a need to introduce draconian measures to combat the epidemic on the Chinese model, when large enterprises are shut down, freedom of movement inside and outside the country is limited, and violators of quarantine measures face the death penalty?
We all will die?
The worst pandemic in modern human history - the Spanish flu raged for 18 months in 1918-19. Approximately every third inhabitant of the planet fell ill with them, and according to various estimates, approximately 50-100 million people died. This is more than the death toll in the First World War itself, but the military conflict directly affected the scale of the epidemic. The spread of the disease was facilitated by the satellites of hostilities: unsanitary conditions, lack of food, refugees, crowding in military camps. Is it possible today to repeat the events of a century ago?
Experts say this is unlikely. There are several circumstances that will not allow the epidemic to grow to a global scale, says Artem Gil, professor at the Graduate School of Healthcare Management at Sechenov University. First of all, these are strict quarantine measures, restriction of passenger traffic and movement of people. In addition, the COVID-2019 virus itself is not very aggressive. In most cases (more than 80 percent), the disease is mild or even asymptomatic. Dangerous forms of viral pneumonia usually develop in older people with a bunch of concomitant diseases. Moreover, the mortality rate does not exceed 2 percent. For comparison, during the Spanish flu pandemic, the mortality rate reached 10-20 percent.
A WHO expert during a press conference on the spread of the Chinese coronavirus.
Promotional video:
The virus has crossed the borders of China, is Europe next?
Most experts are inclined to believe that the spread of COVID-2019 will fade away by summer due to natural reasons. Respiratory viral infections are seasonal. The spread of the virus is greatly influenced by the temperature and humidity of the air, the intensity of ultraviolet radiation and other natural factors. For example, the SARS epidemic that broke out in China in November 2002 ended on its own after 8 months, in June 2003. Now in China itself, they say that the peak of the coronavirus epidemic has already passed. Epidemiologists are very cautious about the fact that the virus is new and has not yet been properly studied.
- Judging by the behavior of other coronaviruses, the incidence in countries with a temperate climate, such as Russia, will grow in autumn and winter and will come to naught by the summer, - said the director of the Institute of Medical Parasitology, Tropical and Vector-borne Diseases of Sechenov University, Doctor of Medical Sciences, Member RAS Correspondent Alexander Lukashev. - But it cannot be ruled out that in the fall the virus may return again.
Can the infection spread around the world using parcels from online stores?
China is a world factory for the production of electronics and cheap consumer goods. Millions of people in different countries order Chinese goods from online stores. Is it dangerous to receive parcels from China? Doctors consider such fears unfounded. COVID-2019 does not live long on the surface of objects. Outside of a living organism, even in favorable conditions, the virus can exist for no more than 48 hours. Despite all the customer focus, no postal delivery service sends goods at such a speed.
Measuring the temperature on the streets of Beijing.
Can't be saved from COVID-2019?
In fact, the Wuhan coronavirus turned out to be not so contagious, it is not so easily transmitted from person to person. Scientists compared the degree of its infectiousness in comparison with other infections, it was not too high. This indicator is determined based on how many healthy people one patient can infect.
- Seasonal flu: infectiousness 1.5 (10 people can infect 15 people)
- Coronavirus COVID-2019: the degree of infectiousness 2.2 (10 cases can infect 22 people)
- Rhinoviruses (causative agents of colds): infectious degree 6 (10 cases can infect 60)
- Measles: the degree of infectiousness is 12-18 (10 cases can infect 120-180 people).
YAROSLAV KOROBATOV