The outbreak of Zika fever, which continues to excite people around the world, once again made people think about the causes of viral infections. Only in the 21st century there were several of them (SARS, bird flu, MERS, Ebola). Apparently, the list will grow.
VIRAL "SURPRISES"
Agree, the current alarming reports about the Zika virus and the situation as a whole are somewhat reminiscent of the panic of previous years about bird flu, SARS, MERS (Middle East respiratory syndrome) and the recent outbreak of Ebola hemorrhagic fever.
Zika virus leads to the birth of mentally retarded children with reduced heads (microcephaly)
Remember how much noise there was then, what terrible predictions were given by "graduated" specialists? As a result, everything calmed down, and the number of victims was even stopped later - they turned out to be an order of magnitude less than predicted.
If we take medical statistics, then many more people die from common pneumonia (pneumonia) - a very common disease. Another thing is that if in this case the method of treatment is known and the drugs are at hand, then there are no funds to deal with every now and then emerging viral "surprises".
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If so, the World Health Organization (WHO) and wealthy states do not trade - scientific institutions and pharmaceutical manufacturers receive huge funds for the development and production of medicines. It doesn't matter that they are often thrown out in vain - the virus has disappeared.
But the money has been spent even regardless of the final result. It turns out that in this case, the higher the degree of panic, the faster the funds will be allocated and the more there will be, - whipping up fear in the press only plays into the hands …
Selfish interest on the part of certain unscrupulous doctors is not excluded. For example, in the UK, a well-known expert in a popular magazine article presented an authoritative opinion on the dangers of measles vaccination. It was replicated by other media.
However, the pharmaceutical company that manufactures the respective vaccines undertook a rigorous review to find out the reason for the expert opinion, which is so different from the generally accepted and proven practice.
It turned out that the author of the article is associated with a company that produces medicines for measles, and, of course, is interested in increasing the number of patients. Vaccinations are not given - more sick people! The publication had to print an article with an apology and a statement of the real state of affairs …
Nowhere to nowhere
Another thing is the very nature of the origin of viruses. Over the past 70 years, that is, over the average life span of a person, more than 25 large-scale epidemics of previously unknown diseases have occurred in the world.
Their "scenario" is the same: the epidemic starts in one or several provincial cities, but not in the capitals; the virus is unknown or modified, and it is very difficult to treat it. In addition, the causative agents of the disease disappear after a while.
So, in 1995, on the border between Ecuador and Peru, where an armed conflict broke out at that time (the war of Alto Senepa), a mysterious epidemic broke out - people quickly died from brain inflammation. As it turned out, under the influence of an unknown virus, the brain of the victims simply "boiled away".
Then the "alien" just as suddenly disappeared. But how did he get there? The versions are very different: from genetic modification of known viruses to the tricks of alien creatures.
Of course, there is always some official point of view: the birds have been smashed, the camels are to blame, a mutation of already known viruses has occurred … But every now and then another assumption slips in: another "byaka" was created in the laboratories of the special services. In particular, during the outbreak of SARS, this version was made by the representative of the organization "Doctors of the World" in Thailand, Spanish doctor Romeo Mendeles.
Then there were hints in the press about the mysterious Ebola virus, which, also appearing out of nowhere, killed over 5 thousand people in Congo and Uganda in a matter of days. True, there is one but: the scale of the lethal outcome (from 4 to 11% in different countries) did not in any way pull on biological weapons.
A DEMOGRAPHY VIRUS?
Despite the skepticism of official medicine, there is also a hypothesis of extraterrestrial origin. More precisely, the regulated "injection" of viruses into the human environment. In particular, even serious scientists attribute the plague to extraterrestrial forces during the Peloponnesian War in 431-404 BC. e., when the Athenian ruler Pericles also died of illness.
And the Byzantine emperor Justinian I is considered a kind of punishment for vanity and other vices, the bubonic plague, a pandemic of which lasted over 100 years - from 531 to 650.
Some astrologers also considered the great plague pandemic, which began in China in 1892 and lasted 15 years, as a brake on further population growth on the part of supernatural forces. Then the same fate befell neighboring India: an epidemic of the bubonic plague took place there in the period 1896-1907 and killed about 3 million people.
By the way, the reduction of the population by some supernatural forces through deadly diseases is one of the common prejudices. In part, its appearance is facilitated by the dynamics of the growth of the world's population. There is only one indicator: mankind has been going for a million years to the 3 billion mark, and it has doubled in just 40 years - now we are about 7 billion. What will happen next?
Although almost 50 years ago - in 1968 - a book by Stanford University professor Paul Ehrlich with the self-explanatory title "The Demographic Bomb" caused a real shock. In it, the scientist argued that for a prosperous life of mankind in all respects, the optimal population of the Earth is 1.5-2 billion people.
In this regard, the forecast contained in a recent Lloyds insurance market report is disappointing: by 2050, 9 billion people will live on Earth. The figure is not taken from the ceiling - the document was prepared by analysts at the Institute for Sustainable Development at the University of England Ruskin (Anglia Ruskin University).
Experts emphasize that the particular danger due to such population growth is not a single factor, but a combination of unfavorable climate change, shortages of food and drinking water, lack of energy capacity and political instability. A decrease in population growth rates due to incurable diseases is, albeit cynical, but nevertheless one of the options for solving the problem.
HIDDEN AND WAIT …
A time bomb is the ability of viruses to mutate.
In other words, hiding and eventually showing oneself in a more complex and less curable form.
The same Ebola virus, which causes hemorrhagic fever, was first recorded in Congo 40 years ago - in 1976. Then 6 thousand people died.
But in 2014 it appeared again and has already crossed the borders and penetrated into neighboring countries - this is already a different level of threat. Fortunately, Russian infectious disease specialists managed to develop and use a vaccine against the Ebola virus.
The growing mobility of the population also adds to the problem. Previously, infections, by virtue of the instinct of self-preservation, maintained a certain balance. After all, people lived in small communities, and the complete destruction from the provoked disease threatened the loss of "habitat".
For example, the tribe was completely dying out, and there was nowhere to spread further. Now this problem in pathogens has been removed: from Africa, you can easily get over by plane or ship to South or North America, Europe or Asia.
Fortunately, people-carriers often do not even suspect that they are dangerous virus carriers for others. In other words, today the rules of natural selection that have been in effect for millions of years have been violated, and, as you know, you have to pay for violations.
VACCINATION FOR OSTAP BENDER
According to WHO experts, the second no less danger is the ability of viruses to overcome the interspecies barrier, that is, to be transmitted to humans from birds and animals. So, at first it was believed that the raging last year's MERS coronavirus was brought by bats, and then camels were recognized as the culprits. Attention to this disease has been drawn since May 20, 2015, when an outbreak of the disease occurred in South Korea - 186 people became infected, of whom 36 died.
But, as the name itself suggests, MERS - Middle East Respiratory Syndrome - the emergence of coronavirus is associated with this region, and not with Southeast Asia. In Saudi Arabia, since 2012 - it was then that the disease started in the fall - 1,147 people were infected with MERS, while 487 of them died.
Reducing the population by some supernatural forces through deadly diseases is one of the common prejudices.
But the Zika virus, which is now heard, poses no threat to Russia. And in the New World, by no means in all countries it is possible to spread it: Canada and Chile are out of danger. After all, the new virus is spread by mosquitoes of the Aedes family, which live only in hot climates.
These insects are not found in Europe. And fortunately, the disease is not spread from person to person. However, the creation of a vaccine that protects against infection with the Zika virus is an urgent task. If only because the Olympic Games will take place in Brazil in the summer.
By the way, not all those eager to visit exotic countries with the appropriate climate know that they need to be vaccinated before traveling. If the great strategist Ostap Bender now decided to fulfill his blue dream - to leave for Rio de Janeiro to walk there in white pants on sandy beaches, then, in addition to having a passport, he would certainly need to be vaccinated against yellow fever.
By the way, this viral disease is also spread by local mosquitoes. It has a permanent residence in almost all of Africa (with the exception of the Mediterranean coast and South Africa) and in South America (except for Argentina and Chile).
If you do not take action, then 60% of cases are fatal. Therefore, doctors strongly recommend getting vaccinated against yellow fever. Moreover, no later than 10 days before departure - only then the body will develop immunity.
STATISTICAL OPTIMISM
Alas, the forecasts are disappointing. Recently, a group of virologists calculated that more than 300 thousand new viruses that threaten humanity are now known to science.
They are mainly distributed in the wild among mammals, but over 70% of them can be transmitted to humans.
So, after examining flying foxes (or fruit bats) living in Bangladesh, scientists discovered 55 (!) Viruses in their bodies. At the same time, only five turned out to be known, and what threatens the other 50, one can only guess. In particular, the Nipah virus widespread there causes such a serious infectious disease as encephalitis, as well as respiratory diseases.
According to WHO, over the past 20 years, more than 30 new pathogens have been identified that are causative agents of previously unknown ailments. They are usually called emerging (unexpectedly appeared) infections that cause epidemic emergencies that are unforeseen in their consequences. In a word, it's too early to calm down.
… When in 2003 passions were in full swing around the threat of SARS and many were somehow uncomfortable, a medical professor I knew inoculated me with optimism. When I asked about the likelihood of dying from SARS, he just gave statistics.
It turns out that the chances of dying in a car accident are 1,500 times higher, the probability of being killed by a criminal is 700 times, and of drowning is 500 times higher. The only thing comparable to SARS is death in a plane crash, since an airplane is the safest mode of transport.
By the way, the statistics for swine flu in 2016 are expected to be about the same. Indeed, in 2009 we survived its invasion, and around the world from this type of flu, a little more than 2.5 thousand people died. Although optimism is optimistic, one should not forget the “prophylactic” proverb: “God protects those who are safe”.
Oleg NIKOLAEV