I do not know about you, but my head is spinning from the news about the coronavirus. What is happening in the world today, with which doctors and patients are faced on a daily basis, is truly scary. But it becomes even worse from the mere thought that COVID-19 is with us forever. As is often the case, you will have to face fear - as the chief scientist of the World Health Organization (WHO), Sumya Swaminatan, said during the Financial Times conference, the coronavirus may not be eradicated. Swaminathan warned that the pandemic could “potentially get worse” before changing for the better. The new virus, which first entered the human body, is still poorly understood, and therefore it is not easy to predict when we will defeat it. Thus, the SARS-CoV-2 coronavirus could become another endemic virus, like HIV, which,as we all know perfectly well, it is still with us.
When will the coronavirus vaccine be invented?
Unfortunately, the situation is such that we have to be realistic. This means that hardly anyone can predict when and how we will defeat COVID-19. Even with the good news about the development and testing of a vaccine, WHO experts highlight the challenges scientists will face. Let me remind you that more than 100 potential vaccines are currently being developed, some of which are already undergoing clinical trials. And yet, the hope for the emergence of a vaccine against COVID-19 is justified - so, despite the fact that measles could not be eradicated, thanks to vaccination at some point the world almost forgot about its existence. But we won a real victory over smallpox.
Scientists around the world working on a vaccine are rapidly moving towards human trials. Eradicating the coronavirus as a threat to humanity is much more difficult than just developing a vaccine, experts say, since this vaccine must be developed and distributed on a massive scale. However, some viruses for which vaccines are available cannot be completely eradicated. Vaccines are available for measles, tuberculosis, and seasonal flu, but they are either not universal or not fully effective.
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Anthony Fauci, director of the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases, has repeatedly argued that despite the availability of candidates (a successful vaccine), there is also the possibility of negative consequences, when some vaccines may actually increase the negative effects of infection. The effectiveness of the vaccine is a big unknown and we must not forget about it.
Let me remind you that in January, Fauci predicted that a new coronavirus vaccine could be developed within 12-18 months. But it is important to understand that these are extremely ambitious numbers. The accumulated experience shows that the fastest time in which it was possible to develop a vaccine is four years. This is how long it took to develop a vaccine against mumps.
So even if a vaccine is developed and proven safe and effective, it will take at least several months to produce it in the right quantities. Stopping the spread of the virus requires not only producing billions of doses, but also distributing them.
Consequences of the pandemic
So, the vaccine, most likely, will not appear soon, and WHO experts, among other things, are seriously concerned about the threat of a second wave, which is expected in many countries in the fall. But what does this mean for you and me and for the economy? Governments around the world are looking for an answer to the question of how to help the economy while containing the virus. I note that at the time of this writing, the number of people infected with COVID-19 has exceeded four million, and the death toll is much more than 300,000.
According to Today, the European Union insists on the gradual opening of borders between the participating countries, which were closed due to the pandemic. Politicians believe it is not too late to save part of the summer tourist season while keeping people safe. But how exactly the safety will be implemented is unknown, which also worries public health experts, as extreme caution is needed to prevent new outbreaks. The only thing that does not raise questions today is the understanding that it will take time to get out of the pandemic.
Moreover, the coronavirus can become a permanent part of our lives. It is possible that we will have to learn to live with him. For example, in the case of HIV, we have found methods of treatment and prevention so that people do not feel as scared as they used to. Today, it is important to be realistic, so the option “coronavirus is with us forever” must be taken seriously.
The experts say the only solution is the rapid invention of the vaccine, in fact, admitting that this is our only hope. If scientists can truly find a highly effective vaccine that we can distribute to everyone in the world who needs it, we have a chance to eradicate the virus. As most countries around the world, including the United States and Russia, seek to reopen businesses and public spaces, WHO experts fear that this decision will lead to a vicious cycle of COVID-19 infections, which will ultimately lead to economic disaster.
Lyubov Sokovikova