Researchers have made a forecast based on the study of epidemics "Spanish flu", SARS and swine flu.
To paraphrase Gleb Zheglov from “The Meeting Place Cannot Be Changed”, there are no unheard-of epidemics, just like unheard-of crimes. Something like that somewhere, sometime before. According to epidemiologist and evolutionary biologist Sarah Cobe of the University of Chicago, the answer to the question is when will it all end? - can give the experience of three previous pandemics that happened over the past 100 years.
Scenario # 1: The virus mutates and becomes less dangerous
Example: The Spanish flu epidemic of 1918-1919.
Description:The pandemic was caused by the N1H1 influenza virus, and rapidly spread throughout the world: on the one hand, this was facilitated by the First World War with its movement of huge masses of people, on the other hand, by the development of rail transport, the appearance of airships and high-speed ships. A total of 500 million people have been ill with "Spanish flu" - a third of the world's population. At the same time, according to various estimates, from 50 to 100 million people died. Three waves of the pandemic swept the world, with the second wave being the deadliest. The pandemic ended in March 1919. This is due to the fact that a huge number of people who have had the “Spanish flu” have acquired immunity to the virus. In addition, pathogenic influenza viruses become less lethal over time,since carriers of the most dangerous strains die more often and, accordingly, spread the infection less.
Nevertheless, the H1N1 strain did not disappear anywhere and continued to circulate as a banal seasonal influenza virus, which no longer caused serious consequences. And 40 years later, during the 1957 epidemic, the Spanish flu was driven out of the population by the more successful H2N2 flu strain.
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Scenario # 2: Virus is stifled by effective restrictive measures
Example: 2002-2003 SARS outbreak.
Description: The cause of the epidemic was the SARS-CoV coronavirus, a close relative of the current SARS-CoV-2 killer virus. The outbreak affected 29 countries around the world, SARS-CoV proved to be a very aggressive virus, every tenth patient diagnosed with SARS died, and in the age group over 50, the mortality rate was close to 50 percent. The spread of the disease was stopped by effective epidemiological control measures. Then it was easier to do for a number of reasons. While many Covid-19 patients (this is a disease caused by the SARS-CoV-2 virus) are asymptomatic, the SARS virus immediately gave itself out as serious manifestations: almost all patients complained of high fever and shortness of breath. Therefore, it was easier to identify such patients.
“Plus, SARS-CoV wasn’t as contagious,” says epidemiologist Benjamin Cowling of the University of Hong Kong. - Patients with atypical pneumonia could transmit the virus to other people only about a week after the first symptoms appeared. If such patients were isolated within a week in a hospital with good infection control, further spread of the virus was impossible.
Containment and control tactics worked so well that only 8,098 SARS cases were reported worldwide, of which 774 were fatal. After 2004, the virus did not make itself felt.
Scenario # 3: A vaccine as a magic wand
Example: The 2009 swine flu pandemic.
Description: The epidemic was caused by a strain of the virus of the N1H1 family (another member of this family was the culprit of the Spanish flu). In total, according to the World Health Organization, swine flu killed 18 449 people. However, the worst predictions (and there was no shortage of them) did not come true. First, the virus was not as pathogenic as expected. Secondly, scientists managed to find effective drugs - oseltamivir and zanamevir. But most importantly, six months after the appearance of the virus, a vaccine has already been developed. Thanks to the vaccine company, the second wave of the disease was not particularly dangerous. As a result, the swine flu strain repeated the life cycle of the “Spanish flu” and turned into an ordinary seasonal influenza virus from which people are protected either by vaccinations or by immunity.
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According to experts, in the present case, one recipe is clearly not enough. A combination of three factors that have neutralized previous pandemics can stop a pandemic.
“50 percent of success in the fight against coronavirus depends on how effectively the authorities respond and how conscientiously people comply with the restrictions,” says Sarah Kobe. - Science should give another 50 percent of success. We expect that effective antiviral drugs and vaccines will be created; they are being developed now in different countries of the world.
Well, if an effective method of vaccination cannot be invented, one must hope that the virus will soon mutate and become less dangerous. It will continue to circulate among us, but it will only be able to cause a runny nose and mild colds, as 4 of the 7 known human coronaviruses do now.
YAROSLAV KOROBATOV