The supply of fresh water needed for drinking, growing food, producing energy and practically everything else is dramatically reduced. More than two billion of the world's 7.6 billion people already lack or have no access to clean water supplies. This is stated in a new UN report published in June, which also states that the world will not be able to achieve its previously set goal of providing all the world's population with clean water and an acceptable level of sanitation by 2030. The same report says that by 2050, half of the world's population will not have access to safe water supplies.
The experts who prepared the report note that two key factors bring the problem of global thirst closer: population growth and climate change. And the first issue to be solved is finding a balance between the ratio of the number of people living on the planet and the final volume of available water supplies.
Top 10 countries with a shortage of clean water. The ratio of the total number of inhabitants (dotted circle) to the number of people without easy access to clean water (filled circle).
India has recently increased access to clean water supplies in rural areas, but continues to top the list of countries in terms of the number of people experiencing water shortages. Here, more than 163 million people do not have free access to clean water. Ethiopia is in second place. There, 61 million people experience a lack of clean water. The situation here has improved significantly since the early 2000s, however, a large percentage of local residents still experience a shortage of fresh water.
Without the development of alternative methods and technologies that would make it possible to desalinate seawater in large volumes, humanity in the future will have to rely only on the reserves of fresh water that will remain on the planet by that time.
The main volume of fresh water is used in agriculture, mainly for irrigating crops, raising livestock, as well as in artificial marine farms for growing fish and crops used in the food industry. As the world population grows, so will the demand for agricultural production, the report says. Over the past decades, there has been a slowdown in the growth of the level of water withdrawal from fresh lakes and rivers to provide agriculture and industrial economies, as well as settlements, but this indicator is still ahead of the growth rate of the world's population, which was established in the 40s of the last century.
Water use is outpacing the global population growth rate.
This means that very soon every drop of fresh water will be worth its weight in gold. As a result, we all will have to make very difficult decisions on certain issues. We populate the fields with sugar cane to produce ethanol - we cannot grow food to feed the family. We will build a hydroelectric power plant on the river and people down the river will not be able to fish. Let's start pumping groundwater for our own needs, a very disgruntled neighbor who will not have enough water will come to visit us. These are just a few of the compromises that humanity will have to face. According to scientists, the shortage of fresh water is one of the biggest problems that humanity living in a world of high industrialization and globalization will face.
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The researchers concluded that a significant increase in water consumption by the energy sector is expected over the coming decades. At the same time, alternative energy sources will not solve the problem, as many might think. Yes, alternative energy will reduce carbon dioxide emissions into the atmosphere, but at the same time it can harm other areas. For example, growing biofuel crops may require more water than producing and consuming combustible fuels.
Expected volumes of water consumption by the energy sector for the production of various fuels. Consumable water supplies are understood as non-renewable sources. The forecast is based on the commitment declared by the world powers to phase out combustible fuels, as well as on the reduction of greenhouse gas emissions into the atmosphere.
As mentioned above, the second main factor affecting the reduction of fresh water supplies in the world is global climate change on the planet. The more greenhouse gases accumulate in our atmosphere, trapping heat near its surface, the more fresh water supplies will decrease. An increase in the average global temperature leads to a change in weather factors, which in turn results in a violation of the cyclical water cycle in nature. As a result, environmental disasters (floods, droughts and others) are becoming more frequent phenomena on our warming planet. The ecological balance is disrupted: in places where people do not need additional water supplies, water becomes even more, and where they need it, it becomes even less.
The map below shows water stress (imbalance between water use and water resources) which is expected by 2040. The map was built taking into account the "standard" scenario, with a steady increase in the volume of carbon dioxide emissions into the atmosphere. Higher water stress is expected in areas where the water supply is already vulnerable due to arid climate and population growth.
World water stress projected by 2040.
Large cities will feel the water scarcity the most. Earlier this year, 4 million residents of Cape Town, South Africa, already faced this problem. In January, the local government announced there would only be enough water for 90 days. According to forecasts, its reserves should have completely dried up in April. Only with the help of belated and desperate measures aimed at reducing water consumption in the agricultural sector were residents of the city able to “hold out” until May, when the long rainy season began. The problem of water shortage in the city has not been solved yet. And such cities, according to scientists, will be much more in the next 20-30 years.
By 2050, between 3.5 and 4.4 billion people in the world will have limited access to clean fresh water, with more than 1 billion of this number living in large cities. More than a quarter of the 482 cities and settlements included in the study will in the future face the problem of lack of fresh water to meet all needs. The main factor influencing the growth of fresh water deficit, which is logical, is the growth of the cities themselves and their population. For example, in the United States, Los Angeles is in the first place in terms of water shortages in the future, as its population is predicted to grow even despite climate change, which will also reduce its water reserves. In general, the situation with water in cities will become worse if one of the sectors of their economy receives priority on the use of existing reserves, the study notes.
Top 20 cities predicted to face the largest water crisis by 2050
It is very easy to get discouraged at the sight of such predictions. However, scientists remain hopeful and offer alternative options for the further development of events. For example, computer simulations from the Massachusetts Institute of Technology have shown that policy choices to tackle climate change, as was the case with the Paris Agreement in 2015, will mitigate the impact of future water shortages. If the world community continues to make such decisions in the future, then, for example, 60 million people in Asia will be able to avoid the catastrophic water shortages projected by 2050, scientists say.
The Paris Agreement alone will certainly not be enough. Scientists offer more specific solutions. For example, the experience of Cape Town has shown that governments and local city officials need to develop smarter strategies to conserve fresh water supplies. The same increase in water prices to the point where people would appreciate it more and spend it in moderation would reduce the pressure on its supply.
Nikolay Khizhnyak