Five years ago, in August 2011, under exactly the same circumstances, almost at the same moment of entering orbit, there was an accident with exactly the same Soyuz U rocket.
This Thursday, the Soyuz U rocket was used during the launch of the Progress space truck, which crashed into orbit. And there are many questions about this incident. And not without even mysticism. Or hoaxes. Five years ago, in August 2011, under exactly the same circumstances, almost at the same moment of entering orbit, there was an accident with exactly the same Soyuz U rocket. Moreover, the wreckage of the current Soyuz with the Progress space truck fell not so far from the place where the wreckage of that rocket fell. Then, five years ago, the commission decided that the manufacturing defect found in the engine was accidental. It was decided to test all such rocket engines and install video surveillance systems in the final assembly shops. And now, five years later, the picture of the accident is almost repeated.
Of course, the reasons for the missile hit this Thursday have not yet been investigated. Maybe they are different than in 2011. Another question: is there any need to conduct such a study? The fact is that there was no accident, and the whole world knows about this except Russia. According to the broadcast, the third stage of the rocket successfully separated and the Progress space truck entered orbit.
The video with the successful launch of Soyuz U with Progress on board was watched in real time by the whole world. Astronautics lovers even arrange whole broadcasts, where they comment on both the launch process and the flight itself for everyone.
When the voice of the commentator off-screen uttered beautiful words, this fragment was already falling to the ground over the Tyva Republic. That is, the official broadcast assured: the flight is normal, there are no problems. Moreover, all news agencies reported a successful start from the MCC.
18:02. “The Russian cargo spacecraft Progress MS-04 entered orbit and headed for the International Space Station,” the Mission Control Center said.
18:02. Progress MS-04, launched to the International Space Station (ISS), separated from the third stage of the Soyuz U launch vehicle … - said a representative of Roscosmos.
18:03. Progress MS-04 separated from the third stage of the Soyuz U launch vehicle and headed for the International Space Station, an announcer at the Mission Control Center announced over the speakerphone.
Promotional video:
The same picture was broadcast to NASA. True, already with comments in English. And there they already knew about some problems with telemetry. And they even wondered why there was no commotion in the MCC.
Tellingly, the very first reports of problems came from Houston. In Roskosmos, when asked why the broadcast continued as if nothing had happened, they answered very simply: the video is fake. By the way, the broadcast disappeared from the agency's website. Only the short version remains. But the record remained on the NASA website.
Obviously, the person who is commenting on the flight was not informed of the problem, but at the same time it means that the entire broadcast is actually a staging. However, against the background of other problems in the space industry, this is the most insignificant. Soyuz U, which was unable to put the Progress spacecraft into low-earth orbit, is already a real veteran of the space industry.
The Soyuz U launch vehicle, that is, unified, like all Soyuz, including the most modern ones, is essentially a modernization of the Vostoks and Voskhod, created by Sergei Pavlovich Korolev in the late 1950s. Since then, the engines have changed, and, accordingly, the carrying capacity, and the appearance of the head fairing. But only on the most recent "Soyuz" versions 2.1a and later, the digital control system began to be used. Prior to that, analog was used.
The first launch of Soyuz U took place back in 1973. He has hundreds of satellites successfully delivered into space and dozens of cosmonauts. Although Soyuz U is considered the most reliable launch vehicle in the world - 97.3% of successful launches - accidents have also happened to it. But the launch, which took place on August 24, 2011, is especially interesting. Then the same Soyuz U, as now, was launched from Baikonur and also with cargo for the ISS. At the 342nd second of the flight, the third stage engine turned off. Together with the Progress M-12M spacecraft, the stage fell along a ballistic trajectory in the Altai Mountains. The places where the fragments of the damaged missiles were found are located only a few hundred kilometers from each other - on a global scale, they are practically close.
Then, in 2011, the commission came to the conclusion: the fall is the result of an accident. The operation of the RD-0110 third stage engine was found to be disrupted. Clogged fuel path. The need to introduce a quality control system was discussed. The fate of this system has since been unknown. But after 5 years - an almost identical accident.
“If the same reason is revealed that was five years ago, then it turns out that the work on the mistakes was done poorly, and the system of operation, production, development, creation of space vehicles is a system with many parameters. Therefore, if something happens in the industry, it can also indirectly influence,”said Konstantin Kreidenko, editor-in-chief of the GLONASS Vestnik magazine in an interview with REN TV.
It is not known how the investigation will be conducted. The telemetry disappeared while the rocket was still all right. Only small debris fell to the ground, by which much cannot be understood. This means that the causes of the accident, apparently, will forever remain a mystery.
“It's just a guessing game. It's interesting enough for tech-minded comrades who know the details. But it is still a guessing game, no matter how much you know, it is never possible to say for sure about the accident,”says Ivan Moiseyev, scientific director of the Moscow Space Club.
As an irony of fate: in 1975, the crew of the Soyuz-18A spacecraft only miraculously survived a similar accident. And in the same place. The capsule with the astronauts landed in the Altai Mountains. But then these missiles were new, little-developed technology. For Soyuz U, the number of launches of which has already exceeded eight hundred, the current flight - in December 2016 - should have been the penultimate one.
“There remains one more rocket on Earth, Soyuz U. And, apparently, it will not fly any more: they will fly on Soyuz-2. It is a more reliable rocket. Equipped with our own, domestic instruments,”says Oleg Mukhin, Vice President of the Russian Cosmonautics Federation.
It is possible that for the sake of safety a decision will indeed be made to cancel the last flight of the Soyuz U. Only with new modifications, not everything is smooth either. Soyuz 2.1a is one of the most modern - a year and a half ago it was also unable to bring the Progress M-27M spacecraft to the ISS.
In all these cases, all kinds of commissions almost always come to the same conclusion: marriage. But this is a consequence. The reason is both the lack of qualified personnel and the lack of control over such a delicate and complex industry.
And against this background - a large-scale investigation of multimillion-dollar embezzlements during the construction of the Vostochny cosmodrome. Periodic detention of space officials. Just 3 days ago, the court arrested for 2 months the executive director for control and quality of Roscosmos, Vladimir Evdokimov. Although the matter is not related to the current job, the symptom itself is frightening.
With this approach, we run the risk of turning from a supplier of space technology into an outsider. There have been accidents with all the modifications of the Soyuz in recent years. Freight "Protons" have already fallen 7 times since 2010. Nobody can say what to do with those stubbornly unwilling to fly missiles. Moreover, 2 days before the launch, the government reported: "The Russian cosmonautics, breaking free from this veil of defeats, offensive accidents and catastrophes, stabilizing quality issues, made a qualitative leap forward in creating the latest technologies." But the short phrase “500 seconds - normal flight” sounds less and less. However, sometimes, and hearing it, you should not rejoice.