In the next 100-200 years, humanity will die: it will destroy itself with a nuclear explosion or die out from a deadly virus, or will not survive the collision with an asteroid. Astrophysicist Stephen Hawking warned about this, who urged people to seek salvation in space. Experts agree that sooner or later the Earth will have to leave.
Humanity has from 100 to 200 years to decide how to create living conditions in space. The world famous British astrophysicist Stephen Hawking is sure of this. He shared these considerations in an interview with BigThink. According to him, he has repeatedly expressed this idea, but every time he wants to convey the idea that time remains catastrophically short.
This time, he firmly stated: "Leave the Earth or face extinction." At the same time, the scientist does not call to simply take and abandon planet Earth. He shares the thought of science fiction writer Robert Heinlein, who said that the main mistake of humanity is that it "keeps eggs in one planetary basket."
“We are entering an increasingly dangerous period in our history. Our population and use of planet Earth's limited resources are growing exponentially along with our technical ability to change the environment for better or worse. But our genetic code still carries with it selfishness and aggressive instincts that have helped us survive in the past. It will be very difficult to avoid trouble in the next hundred, thousand, or a million years. Our only chance for long-term survival is not to look inside the planet Earth, but to expand into space,”says Stephen Hawking.
Developing the thought, the scientist added that over the past 100 years, humanity has made great progress, so if it wants to live on, then its future is in space. “That's why I am in favor of manned space flight,” he concluded.
Hawking divided the threats that worried the scientist into two categories. The first is the day of judgment, when humanity will destroy itself. This will happen from a biological or nuclear attack or irreparable climatic changes caused by human fault, when it will be impossible to withstand the elements.
Another category is a catastrophe, in which a person will not be involved. This is, first of all, the possibility of a collision of the Earth with a huge asteroid or a supernova explosion. Also, a great threat is posed by eruptions of supervolcanoes and the emergence of new pathogens, against which there will be no means of struggle.
With the first category of problems, humanity is in a position to do anything. Therefore Hawking calls for action to be taken to save the environment and human society. The second category concerns possible scenarios for the death of all living things, when humanity will be powerless to resist. Therefore, each category of catastrophe will require humanity to develop a plan "B" - the path of retreat into space.
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“Over the past 100 years, we have achieved outstanding success. But if we want humanity to continue to exist in another 100 years, then we need to understand that our future is in space,”Hawking said.
Note that Stephen Hawking is almost completely paralyzed due to a serious illness. He moves in a special wheelchair. Physical injury did not prevent him from becoming the author of several best-selling books on science. In a simple and understandable language, he talks about the Universe and the achievements of major astrologers.
Yuri Karash, Corresponding Member of the Tsiolkovsky Russian Academy of Cosmonautics, notes that Hawking did not say "anything fundamentally new" from what was said earlier. He recalled that Konstantin Tsiolkovsky, the first ideologist and theorist of human exploration of outer space, said: “The Earth is the cradle of mankind, but you cannot live in the cradle forever”.
“I don't know what criteria Hawking used when he said that the Earth has 100 years of resources. From time to time there are talks that hydrocarbon reserves are about to run out,”Karash told VZGLYAD newspaper.
The expert noted that in parallel, there are other theories, according to which there is a constant process of renewal of natural resources on Earth. “That is, if oil reserves are depleted, it will be much later than it can be imagined,” Karash notes.
However, he agrees with Hawking that sooner or later all resources on Earth, including fertile soil for agriculture, will be reduced, and then they will have to "look for other planets that could be mastered and create acceptable living conditions for humans."
At the end of the last century, the famous astrophysicist Karal Sagan said that “every planetary civilization will be under the threat of strikes from space, therefore every surviving civilization must learn to move in space - not because of research or romantic zeal, but for the practical reason of the imaginary: stay alive.
Science fiction writer Larry Niven also advised humanity to think about the colonization of other planets. “Dinosaurs died out because they didn't have a space program. And we, too, will become extinct, because we do not have a space program,”the science fiction writer once said.
Humanity is exploring outer space with varying success. The first artificial earth satellite was launched into USSR orbit on October 4, 1957. In April 1961, cosmonaut Yuri Gagarin made his first flight into space on board the Vostok 3KA # 3 Soviet spacecraft. And the first manned flight to the moon on December 21, 1968 was made by American astronauts on the Apollo 8 spacecraft.
Now humanity is struggling with the task of flying to Mars. According to the head of Roscosmos Anatoly Perminov, such a flight is possible no earlier than 2035 due to the lack of the necessary engines and energy carriers. At the same time, several countries should participate in the project, because "no country in the world" can do this. “Today there are no engines, energy carriers of this class, which could deliver a man to Mars in a period of no more than 2-3 months. This can only be afforded with the creation of a nuclear engine. Many countries are working on a new type of engine. This can reduce the flight time by 20 times. That is, instead of 1.5 years, reduce to two months,”said the head of Roscosmos.
Today Russia, Europe, USA, India and China are interested in Mars. In early June, the Mars-500 project was launched. Six volunteers intend to live 520 days in a simulated Martian spacecraft. The experiment consists of three main stages: a 250-day "flight" from Earth to Mars, a 30-day stay on its surface and a 240-day return. The international "expedition to Mars" is headed by Russian Alexei Site.
Andrey Rezchikov