This will mean big changes in our daily life and it is important for us to start planning
The researchers' new report is full of gloomy predictions about the climate in Europe in the coming decades.
"Multi-hazard assessment in Europe under climate change" is the title of a report that predicts the occurrence and severity of natural disasters such as floods, wildfires and droughts in Europe in the next 70 years.
Southern Europe will be the worst hit, with the report arguing that countries like Portugal and Spain are facing such an unprecedented increase in extreme weather events that scientist Bjørn Samset believes it will have a significant impact on the economies of both countries.
“Southern and Western Europe will have the worst in the coming decades. They will experience a mixture of heatwaves and flooding in coastal areas. Climate problems there may become so great that they will affect the whole of Europe, since food production in these countries will become very difficult. It will also affect the economy,”Samset says.
The Hundred Years Flood - More
In the 2080s, Southern Europe will experience periods of drought and extreme heat every year, the authors of the report write. Heatwaves, which they call “centennial heatwaves,” are 70% likely to occur in Southern Europe every year. A “centennial drought” can be expected annually with a 60% probability. Many more wildfires, floods and storms are also expected in countries like Spain and Portugal in the 2080s.
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Samset acknowledges that the report may intimidate many:
“The report is a very sad reading. We know what happens when there is a lot of rainfall and it is very hot, and this shows how bad the climate in Europe can be,”he says.
The authors of the report used a variety of techniques to predict extreme weather events. Samset, a researcher at the CICERO Climate Research Center, Center for International Climate and Environmental Research, Oslo, assures that the report was prepared "in a serious and extremely competent research environment."
Scientists are trying to predict the frequency and severity of natural disasters in Europe in the 2020s, 2050s and 2080s. To facilitate the task, the continent was divided into five parts. Forecasts for the 2050s reflect the international community's goal of limiting the rise in global average temperatures to a maximum of two degrees above pre-industrial levels.
There will be more floods in the north and more heat
In northern Europe, we need to prepare for floods and heat waves. According to the authors of the report, the chance of surviving the "century flood" will increase by 20% annually by 2080. It is highly likely (35%) that what we in northern Europe today call the hottest period of the century will occur every year in the 2080s.
“In the north, the heat wave is expected to increase and the number of large forest fires will increase. The number of dry periods will also decrease significantly,”explains Samset.
Simply put, the trend is the same: Europe should, starting from 2020, and especially from 2050 and beyond, expect a significant increase in periods of heat, cold, droughts, forest fires, floods and storms. Natural phenomena will also increase in strength, and according to Samset, we should expect that due to climate change some parts of Europe will be "out of the game" from time to time.
However, he is not pessimistic about the future of the continent.
“A lot is going to change in our daily life and therefore it is important to start planning infrastructure in the north now. Local authorities, for example, should not build housing in areas that would be prone to flooding. I think we can cope with climate change, but it will require a lot of resources from the whole society.
Serious people
The situation in Norway and Northern Europe will be better than in the southern regions of the continent. But the report predicts significant climate changes in the north as well: we should expect heat waves, wildfires and floods every year. The chances that Northern Europe will have a “centennial heatwave” every year is 40%, according to information analyzed by scientists.
- The problem is that these climate changes will occur simultaneously with the fact that society will have to move away from fossil fuels. Together, these two challenges create a very difficult situation for the use of resources in Europe, - notes Samset in the end.
- Many are quite skeptical about climate research, claiming that there is a certain rationale.
- I have always wondered: what could be someone's personal interest when it is predicted what the climate will be like in 100 years. The research was carried out by serious people who took information from many other specialists. I think that we will all survive this, but only if now we do not close on these forecasts and pretend that nothing terrible will happen, - says Samset about climate change.
Western Europe, namely France, the Benelux countries and Germany, must prepare for floods and heat almost every year starting in the 2020s. By 2080, the probability of an annual “centennial flood” will increase by 30%, and the likelihood of a “centennial drought” will increase by 40%.
“Some of the things described in the report will happen no matter what. The goal is not to exceed the so-called "two-degree barrier", but even then we know for sure that there will be more natural disasters. When I give presentations to students in high school, I strive to convey to them the following: regardless of how they build their lives, the climate will be on the agenda for as long as they are destined to live.
