Bloomberg New Energy Finance recently released its Electric Vehicle Outlook 2018 report, which provides forecasts for the prevalence of electric vehicles. An interesting part of the report is the forecast for the use of oil by mankind during the years of the complete victory of electric motors over internal combustion engines.
According to BNEF, it takes 15 years for electric vehicles to become more affordable than combustion-powered cars. At the same time, by 2020, electric buses will completely dominate public transport. Electric vehicle sales are expected to exceed 1.6 million units in 2018. In 2014, their sales were measured in hundreds of thousands.
Indeed, we can see a significant increase in sales of electric vehicles, which is associated with reductions in battery production costs and government support. China was the third important factor. This country imposes restrictions on the purchase of cars with gasoline and diesel engines. It is estimated that by 2025, half of the electric vehicle market will be in China.
The number of models offered by car manufacturers is also growing. At the end of 2017, 155 models were offered. 289 EV models are expected to be available by 2022. All of this should translate into 11 million units sold by 2025, 30 million by 2030 and 60 million by 2040. Collectively, about 559 million electric vehicles will be on the road by 2040.
It goes without saying that such a growth in the electric vehicle market cannot but affect the use of oil in the future. The BNEF believes that by 2040 high oil prices will come to an end, and its use will be reduced to 7.3 million barrels per day. The demand will be huge in 10 years and in 20 years, but its destruction is inevitable.
Ernest Vasilevsky