The Arctic may lose sea ice in the summer as early as 2040. This opinion was expressed by the Doctor of Physical and Mathematical Sciences, Leading Researcher of the Laboratory of Climate Theory of the Institute of Atmospheric Physics. A. M. Obukhov RAS and Vladimir Semenov, head of the Laboratory of climatology at the Institute of Geography, RAS.
The future of the climate in the Arctic, according to the expert, still remains a mystery to world scientists, who cannot say whether the current warming in the Arctic will continue, or if this is another cycle, followed by a cold snap.
According to the climatologist, global climate changes that are taking place in the world are most pronounced in the Arctic.
“The Arctic is warming 2.5-3 times warmer than the average on our planet, this phenomenon has been noted in the last 20-30 years. If in the middle hemisphere the temperature has increased by half a degree over the past 30 years, then in the Arctic - by 1.5, Semenov explained.
The scientist notes that the Arctic climate poses two big problems for scientists: the fastest warming and the greatest uncertainty in forecasting climate change.
“We are between two rather diametric points of view - either the warming will continue and will soon lead to the complete melting of sea ice in the summer, or it will be replaced by a cooling snap, albeit not strong,” the scientist said.
More than 30 climate models, as Semenov adds, show further warming in the Arctic under anthropogenic impact.
“If the emissions of greenhouse gases into the atmosphere continue to increase, the warming in the Arctic will continue. My personal opinion that it will continue to warm up may not be as strong as it is now, but the warming will continue,”he said.
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If the climate in the Arctic is subject to cyclicity, as evidenced by observations of the 20th century, then the cycle of warming and cooling is now at its maximum, and the temperature in the Arctic should decline in the near future.
“If, hypothetically, such a cycle exists, and it continues, then in the next 10-20 years we will observe a cooling and an increase in the area of sea ice,” the agency's source said.
So far, it remains only to continue observations.
However, experts have the opinion that no cycles exist, and, according to the scientist, if you look further into the past, then this point of view is confirmed.
“There is a possibility that the changes taking place now have crossed a certain threshold, after which there will be no return to what it was, but the warming will continue. Therefore, there is a possibility that there will be no ice in the summer in the Arctic by 2030 or 2040,”Semenov said.
He also noted that since 1979 the area of sea ice in the Arctic has been decreasing by 10% every 10 years, that is, over the past 40 years it has decreased by 40%.