I am more than sure that many of you have heard about the doomsday clock - the ominous name of some incomprehensible clock, which is constantly translated closer to midnight. In fact, this is a more interesting phenomenon than the occasional mention in news reports. In addition, the clock is not only shifted forward, there have been corrections in the opposite direction. What does it depend on, what kind of watch is it, when did they appear and why should you not be afraid of them? We will answer all the questions in this article.
What is Doomsday Clock?
You might think that the doomsday clock is a real clock that stands or hangs somewhere. In reality, they exist only on the cover of a magazine that is a project of the University of Chicago. In fact, they carry not even time, but mathematical probability. Midnight on the watch signifies a nuclear cataclysm and, in fact, the end of the world. The closer the watch is to this mark, the more likely a sad outcome is. Sometimes the clock is set back. The fact that the movement of the arrows is not one-sided is another confirmation that their position indicates precisely the probability of an end, and not an imminent inevitable end. The clock does not count down, but makes it clear when the probability of the end of the world is highest.
Oddly enough, the clock was invented by the people who invented the atomic bomb. It was then, in 1947, that they were set at 23:53, but very quickly changed to 23:57, when in 1949 the Soviet Union tested its first atomic bomb.
The question arises why the clock at the very beginning was set exactly at 23:53. You won't like the answer … It was done just like that. Someone just decided that exactly 7 minutes before a nuclear disaster - it looks beautiful. That is why on the cover of the Bulletin there was a watch with this time on the dial. No hidden meaning.
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In the early years of the watch's existence, the decision to transfer them was made solely by the editor-in-chief of the magazine. After his death in 1973, the decision is made by the Science and Security Council. This council includes experts and scientists from completely different fields of science. We can say that this is how the watch became more accurate.
What time does the doomsday clock show
Moving the hands forward 4 minutes in 1949 did not bring the watch to the closest point from the end of the world. Just 4 years later, the USA and the USSR tested thermonuclear bombs at about the same time. Then the clock was set to 23:58. True, later, they were twice translated five minutes ago. It happened in 1960 and 1963.
In the first case, this was due to the awareness of the world community of the danger of the uncontrolled use of atomic weapons. Awareness was expressed in a large number of statements by various politicians on this topic. In the second case, the USA and the USSR signed a treaty banning nuclear weapons testing. The Cuban Missile Crisis did not even prevent the clock from being set back. The tension rose quickly, but also quickly subsided. The publication simply did not have time to respond to the threat.
A visual example of how scientists translate the doomsday clock.
In the future, the clash of interests in Vietnam, and India's testing of its first nuclear bomb, and much more affected the translation of watches. The safest year was 1991, when the United States and the USSR signed a strategic arms reduction treaty. This marked the end of the Cold War and allowed the clock to be reset to 23:43.
It should be noted that in addition to the threat of a nuclear strike by one of the parties, the hours of the doomsday were influenced, albeit to a lesser extent, by the ability to repel these strikes. The development of air defense systems eased tensions a little.
The doomsday clock is now set at 23:58. This is due to the great tension in the world caused by clashes in the Middle East, the DPRK's tests of its nuclear weapons and the trade wars of some countries, the largest of which is the conflict between the United States and China. In addition, now the doomsday clock is influenced not only by the situation on the arms market, but also by other factors.
What affects the doomsday clock
As conceived by the authors of the watch, the main factor influencing the position of the hands was precisely the nuclear threat. In 2007, the approach changed slightly. According to the authors of the Bulletin, humanity is slowly but surely moving towards catastrophic climate change. Now they have begun to influence the clock. Later, the position in society of different countries and some other factors were also taken into account.
Against the background of relative stability in the field of strategic weapons, changes in the time remaining until midnight can be changed just by including new variables in the calculation.
Since 1991, the watch has been set 9 times, of which the hands have swung back only once. This happened in 2010, when the United States promised to reduce greenhouse gas emissions and began negotiating with Russia to sign a new Strategic Offensive Arms Treaty (START).
Since 2017, a new tradition has emerged to translate hours by 30 seconds. The gap until midnight is getting smaller, and the step must be reduced. It is possible that soon they will be translated for 10 seconds, or even one at a time.
Should you be afraid of doomsday hours
Not so long ago, an article was published on our site in which I gave examples of the promised ends of the world. Then, as an epilogue, I said that the end of the world is inevitable, but one should not be afraid of it. At the very least, you shouldn't be afraid of him on a specific date. The probability of its occurrence in the infinite future, even according to the theory of probability, is one hundred percent. Is it easier for you to realize that in many billions of years the Sun, like all stars, will explode and the Earth will end?
This is what an underwater atomic explosion looks like.
Likewise, do not be afraid that the clock is moving closer and closer to midnight. The closer they get to it, the more resistance their arrows will meet. It is one thing to wave nuclear fists when the collision is still far away, and quite another thing when the finger is raised above the button. At the helm of the nuclear powers are people who understand that after a strike on other members of this club, a response will follow and everything will end. It won't matter what happens next. That is why, they will not allow such a collision. There are no winners in a nuclear war.
In this scenario, it is more likely, I believe, the mistake of someone in charge of air defense systems. Although, in this age of technology, there are certainly systems that will not allow one conventional sergeant to make a mistake in a game with such high stakes.
Let’s discard this option, too, and continue to live in peace. We have enough other problems to worry about what we cannot change.
Artem Sutyagin
