Climate change will lead to the disappearance of the most delicious variety - Arabica.
Buying buckwheat in bags in supermarkets is no longer relevant. It is time for thrifty people to make strategic coffee stocks. 2.2 billion cups of this drink are consumed worldwide every day. But the bad news for coffee lovers comes from research labs. The coffee we value so much may disappear by the end of this century. Our grandchildren may have to sip on a tasteless surrogate and wonder why half the world went crazy over this sludge at one time.
The cause of the coffee disaster will be global climate change. The fact is that from 80 to 90 percent of the world's coffee is grown in the so-called "coffee belt", which includes Guatemala, Brazil, Vietnam, Colombia, Ethiopia, Indonesia, etc. According to the Climate Institute (Australia), as a result of global warming by 2050, the area of land suitable for growing arabica coffee, the most common type of coffee, will decrease by 50%.
Arabica is a very capricious culture, coffee trees can only yield in the tropics on mountain plantations, at an altitude of at least 1200-1500 meters. At the same time, the climate should be humid, trees need at least 1300 mm of precipitation per year. What is happening with coffee plantations today can be traced to the example of Ethiopia - the largest producer of Arabica in Africa. A related study was published in the journal Nature. Climatic observation data indicate that in the period from 1960 to 2006 the average annual temperature in the country increased by 1.3 ° C. At the same time, the amount of precipitation decreased by 15-20%. By 2060, the average annual temperature in Ethiopia is projected to increase by another 1.1-3.1 ° C. This forces farmers to move their plantations even higher into the mountains, where the weather is cooler. But the land at this height is much less, in addition, any change in growing conditions can fatally affect the Arabica harvest. The problem is that centuries of cultivation have led to the fact that the genetic diversity of this variety is extremely small - within only 1.2 percent (for comparison, this figure for rice and soybeans is about 20%). As a result, Arabica is not well adapted to adapt to new conditions. And the biggest problem with a narrow genetic base is vulnerability to disease. Therefore, scientists fear that Arabica could repeat the fate of Gros Michel - the famous banana variety that fell victim to the Panama disease and is practically not cultivated today. The first bells have already sounded: in 2008, a coffee rust epidemic destroyed large plantations in Central America.any change in growing conditions can have a fatal impact on Arabica crops. The problem is that centuries of cultivation have led to the fact that the genetic diversity of this variety is extremely small - within only 1.2 percent (for comparison, this figure for rice and soybeans is about 20%). As a result, Arabica is not well adapted to adapt to new conditions. And the biggest problem with a narrow genetic base is vulnerability to disease. Therefore, scientists fear that Arabica could repeat the fate of Gros Michel - the famous banana variety that fell victim to the Panama disease and is practically not cultivated today. The first bells have already sounded: in 2008, a coffee rust epidemic destroyed large plantations in Central America.any change in growing conditions can have a fatal impact on Arabica crops. The problem is that centuries of cultivation have led to the fact that the genetic diversity of this variety is extremely small - within only 1.2 percent (for comparison, this figure for rice and soybeans is about 20%). As a result, Arabica is not well adapted to adapt to new conditions. And the biggest problem with a narrow genetic base is vulnerability to disease. Therefore, scientists fear that Arabica could repeat the fate of Gros Michel, the famous banana variety that fell victim to the Panama disease and is practically not cultivated today. The first bells have already sounded: in 2008, a coffee rust epidemic destroyed large plantations in Central America.that centuries of cultivation have led to the fact that the genetic diversity of this variety is extremely small - within only 1.2 percent (for comparison, this figure for rice and soybeans is about 20%). As a result, Arabica is not well adapted to adapt to new conditions. And the biggest problem with a narrow genetic base is vulnerability to disease. Therefore, scientists fear that Arabica could repeat the fate of Gros Michel - the famous banana variety that fell victim to the Panama disease and is practically not cultivated today. The first bells have already sounded: in 2008, a coffee rust epidemic destroyed large plantations in Central America.that centuries of cultivation have led to the fact that the genetic diversity of this variety is extremely small - within only 1.2 percent (for comparison, this figure for rice and soybeans is about 20%). As a result, Arabica is not well adapted to adapt to new conditions. And the biggest problem with a narrow genetic base is vulnerability to disease. Therefore, scientists fear that Arabica could repeat the fate of Gros Michel - the famous banana variety that fell victim to the Panama disease and is practically not cultivated today. The first bells have already sounded: in 2008, a coffee rust epidemic destroyed large plantations in Central America. As a result, Arabica is not well adapted to adapt to new conditions. And the biggest problem with a narrow genetic base is vulnerability to disease. Therefore, scientists fear that Arabica could repeat the fate of Gros Michel - the famous banana variety that fell victim to the Panama disease and is practically not cultivated today. The first bells have already sounded: in 2008, a coffee rust epidemic destroyed large plantations in Central America. As a result, Arabica is not well adapted to adapt to new conditions. And the biggest problem with a narrow genetic base is vulnerability to disease. Therefore, scientists fear that Arabica could repeat the fate of Gros Michel, the famous banana variety that fell victim to the Panama disease and is practically not cultivated today. The first bells have already sounded: in 2008, a coffee rust epidemic destroyed large plantations in Central America.in 2008, a coffee rust epidemic destroyed large plantations in Central America.in 2008, a coffee rust epidemic destroyed large plantations in Central America.
“Large companies like Starbucks and Lavazza, which own coffee shops around the world, have already publicly acknowledged the seriousness of climate risks,” said John Connor, director of the Australian Climate Institute. “Consumers are likely to face a shortage of coffee, a deterioration in aroma and flavor, and an increase in prices.
To save the coffee industry in 2012, manufacturers created the World Coffee Research (WCR) research organization. Its employees are looking for the wild relatives of Arabica in its homeland of Ethiopia, hoping to cross-breed to produce a disease-resistant variety. However, work is progressing slowly and the WCR science program is being criticized by genetic engineers.
“They are mainly trying to cross a running horse and a donkey,” Brand Wolfe, head of the crop genetics project at the John Innes Center in the UK, assures Chemical & Engineering News in an interview. “But it will take them many, many years for the noble trotter, obtained as a result of selection, to stop looking like a donkey. But there are tools of modern genetic engineering, with the help of which you can take the desired gene of a wild relative and edit the genetic code of an elite coffee variety without fundamentally changing anything in taste and aroma.
However, WCR Scientific Director Christophe Montagnon is categorical: "Genetically modified coffee is not compatible with the traditions of the coffee world!" Most likely, coffee tycoons believe that sales of "coffee GMO" will cause rejection from the consumer and, accordingly, losses.
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Large growers are hoping to solve the problem with advanced agricultural practices, new pesticides, chemicals and antifungal drugs. But geneticists believe that in fact, consumers have two options: either switch to bitter robusta - this type of coffee is more resistant to infection and climate change, although not so sophisticated. It accounts for 29% of world coffee production (Arabica makes 69% - ed.). Or, nevertheless, humble pride and taste genetically modified coffee.
YAROSLAV KOROBATOV