Trump's presidential campaign was based on promises to return jobs to the United States, although the main reason for their disappearance is the mechanization of many processes. The decline in the number of jobs has led to the emergence of populist movements in several other countries. However, economists have no optimistic forecasts. On the contrary, people will continue to lose jobs to artificial intelligence, robots and other advanced technologies that are constantly being introduced into use. The question is, how fast will the transition of jobs from humans to computers take place? What does the future hold? Which profession will disappear first and when will it happen?
Computerization
Experts around the world are already starting to sound the alarm. Art Bilger, a venture capitalist and member of the board of directors of business school, believes that all developed countries of the world will experience job losses of up to 47 percent over the next 25 years. No government is prepared for such a turn. First of all, losses will occur among blue and white collars, that is, in the class of workers and service personnel. To date, it was blue collars, in particular production workers, that have taken the greatest blow.
Fighting Coming Unemployment
To combat structural unemployment and the dire damage it threatens to inflict on the US population, Bilger formed a non-profit organization called Working Nation, whose mission is to alert the public and help plan ways to defend against this alarming trend. After all, it is irreversible - the whole concept of employment will be radically changed in the near future. The venture capitalist has called on corporations, academies, government and other nonprofits to work together to modernize the workforce.
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Job loss history
You need to understand that mechanization has always taken jobs from people. The mechanical loom, for example, took the work of the weavers. But he also created new jobs. Mechanics had to keep the device working, locksmiths had to create spare parts for it, workers had to monitor the device, and so on. In many cases, representatives of one profession could go directly to another. In the early twentieth century, for example, cars were completely removed from the business of blacksmiths. Who needed horseshoes now? But soon blacksmiths became mechanics - and who would be better suited for such a job?
The difference of the new trend
However, this is not the case with the new trend. At the moment, the unemployment rate is high in all developed countries - and it will only get worse. By 2034, mid-level jobs will disappear, completely obsolete. At the moment, only the richest strata of the population, that is, less than one percent of people, are experiencing a positive impact. And the coming technological revolution will virtually destroy the middle class as such. Computers will not only be able to perform all the same tasks as humans - they will also be more effective at it.
A threat to specialists
Accountants, doctors, lawyers, teachers, bureaucrats and financial analysts, get ready: your jobs are at stake! Computers will be able to analyze and compare vast amounts of data to make both financial and medical decisions. It will be much less likely that financial fraud or misdiagnosis will occur, and the process will be much more efficient. However, not only these specialists themselves are at risk - this trend is likely to freeze the wages for those people who keep their jobs, while the income gap will constantly grow. One can only guess what effect this will have on politics and social stability.
A process that cannot be stopped
Mechanization and computerization cannot be stopped. You can't put the genie back in the bottle. Everyone must come to terms with the inevitable. The situation is this: other countries will use new technologies to gain an advantage, so each country will want to first of all introduce the latest technologies on its own. As a result, new leading companies and already existing enterprises will absorb those that have proved to be obsolete. However, the speed of change is such that it is almost impossible to avoid a global catastrophe.
Problems to Fight
The problem has been around for quite some time, Bilger said. Pay attention to the longevity people are enjoying now, add to that the declining education system and the problem gets worse. One proposed solution is a “universal basic income” that will be issued by the government, a kind of minimum that everyone will receive to survive. Further, it is necessary to introduce re-education programs that will allow people to find a new profession. Other people may start their own businesses or join creative ventures. This period may even be the heyday of humanity, when people can truly follow their dreams, and not chase the almighty dollar.
Solutions
Recently, Bilger spoke on the radio about a complete retooling of the education system, in particular - the introduction of classes that must give students the skills necessary to get a job that will only appear in the future. He also talked about the need to retrain middle-aged workers so that they can take part in the development of the economy, and not be left behind. Bilger said that certain projects are now being developed for this. He admits, however, that many middle-aged workers are reluctant to retrain, but Bilger says this is simply necessary. Moreover, work is now underway to make learning more dynamic, which includes the use of augmented reality for retraining purposes, as well as re-introduction of a twelve-year training system. However, all these plans are at an early stage.
Marina Ilyushenko