At the moment, the indisputable logical fact is that with an increase in the temperature of the Earth's atmosphere by 2 ° C, inevitable catastrophic consequences await humanity. In order to prevent these events, various conventions were held and various agreements were adopted. Leading minds have repeatedly highlighted this problem, for example, the famous international non-governmental organization "Club of Rome" published in 2016 a report on climate change and the consequences for humanity.
It is also worth highlighting the well-known Paris Agreement and the Kyoto Protocol to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change, the purpose of which is to prevent climate warming on our planet.
The main idea promoted by the Paris Agreement adopted by the UN is to stabilize the temperature of the earth's atmosphere at a level that corresponds to a temperature two degrees below the pre-industrial period of human development. The pre-industrial period in the development of society was not chosen by chance. The thing is that at that moment in history, the development of industry, the indicators of urbanization, the development of agriculture were several times lower than the current one. At that time, there were no factories and cars that would pollute the atmosphere of our planet Earth at such a terrifying rate.
It is not by chance that the leading world organizations in this matter, such as the EU Council, the Group of Seven, the UN and many others, have singled out the threshold of exactly two degrees Celsius.
With the beginning of the formation of the first works related to forecasts of climate change, this figure appears, which was subsequently repeatedly confirmed by studies of the listed leading organizations and the greatest climatologists and other scientists of our time associated with this issue.
The first such work can be considered a work written in the mid-70s of the XX century by the American Doctor of Philosophy in Economics William Nordhaus, on the relationship between climate change and economic losses.
And it is not at all surprising that it was an economist by education that first "sounded the alarm." This is due, first of all, to the fact that in connection with the anthropocentric concept of consumption prevailing at that time, it became extremely important and relevant to take into account not only human abilities, but also positive and negative factors of the influence of nature on the economy. Nordhaus examined climate warming forecasts in terms of harm to the global economy and capital losses, which caused a public resonance and became the most important research topic for the coming decades. One of the questions that interested Nordhaus was the question: will we be able to control the amount of CO2 as the most dangerous identified greenhouse agent. With it, he turned to specialists in systems analysis and came to the conclusion that an increase of 2 ° C,provoked by the rapid development of economic growth, will lead to irreversible and dire consequences for the biosphere of the Earth.
Two degrees Celsius is calculated from the ratio of a possible increase in the amount of carbon dioxide, almost twice the current. According to the calculations, we will find ourselves in the "danger zone" already in the 30s of the XXI century. The "danger zone" means crossing the 2 ° C barrier.
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An important impetus in understanding this problem was the creation of the UN climate convention in the early 1990s. A few years later, the EU more categorically and unambiguously expressed itself about the need to tighten control over emissions caused by anthropogenic activities and establish a two-degree mark as the limit for a possible rise in temperature, which was later reflected in the Paris Agreement.
But why exactly 2 degrees? For most people, this figure is not at all impressive, because every day thermometer readings in temperate latitudes fluctuate significantly, sometimes within 20 degrees Celsius. Many people have a question that seems quite logical at first glance: is it possible that this is a planned exaggeration of the scale of the tragedy and another means of enriching the superpowers? But everything is not as simple as it seems, at first glance, the undeniable fact is that during the 20th century the average temperature was 14 degrees. It is noteworthy that approximately since the 80s of the 19th century, the temperature has increased by one mark of the mercury column, but the main increase in temperature occurred at the end of the 20th century, during a period of significant industrial development and colossal anthropogenic load. And the rate of temperature rise in the XXI century is absolutely amazing,proof is the fact that his first years broke records as the hottest in the last climatic cycle of the Earth. Even small fluctuations of tenths of a degree on a global scale affect the course of biogeochemical cycles, production of oxygen and carbon, change in currents, etc. For example, the influence of the Gulf Stream on the Earth's climate is widely known, and the opposite statement is equally legitimate; climatic changes can affect the cyclicity and nature of the processes of water mass transfer and thus aggravate the problem of global warming. According to many scientists, a climatic catastrophe associated with the disruption of the Gulf Stream is possible, which will affect the entire planet, but the most devastating consequences will still affect the European continent.as the hottest in the last climatic cycle of the Earth. Even small fluctuations of tenths of a degree on a global scale affect the course of biogeochemical cycles, production of oxygen and carbon, change in currents, etc. For example, the influence of the Gulf Stream on the Earth's climate is widely known, and the opposite statement is equally legitimate; climatic changes can affect the cyclicity and nature of the processes of water mass transfer and thus aggravate the problem of global warming. According to many scientists, a climatic catastrophe associated with the disruption of the Gulf Stream is possible, which will affect the entire planet, but the most devastating consequences will still affect the European continent.as the hottest in the last climatic cycle of the Earth. Even small fluctuations of tenths of a degree on a global scale affect the course of biogeochemical cycles, production of oxygen and carbon, change in currents, etc. For example, the influence of the Gulf Stream on the Earth's climate is widely known, and the opposite statement is equally legitimate; climatic changes can affect the cyclicity and nature of the processes of water mass transfer and thus aggravate the problem of global warming. According to many scientists, a climatic catastrophe associated with the disruption of the Gulf Stream is possible, which will affect the entire planet, but the most devastating consequences will still affect the European continent. Even small fluctuations of tenths of a degree on a global scale affect the course of biogeochemical cycles, production of oxygen and carbon, change in currents, etc. For example, the influence of the Gulf Stream on the Earth's climate is widely known, and the opposite statement is equally legitimate; climatic changes can affect the cyclical nature and nature of the processes of water mass transfer and thus aggravate the problem of global warming. According to many scientists, a climatic catastrophe associated with the disruption of the Gulf Stream is possible, which will affect the entire planet, but the most devastating consequences will still affect the European continent. Even small fluctuations of tenths of a degree on a global scale affect the course of biogeochemical cycles, production of oxygen and carbon, change in currents, etc. For example, the influence of the Gulf Stream on the Earth's climate is widely known, and the opposite statement is equally legitimate; climatic changes can affect the cyclical nature and nature of the processes of water mass transfer and thus aggravate the problem of global warming. According to many scientists, a climatic catastrophe associated with the disruption of the Gulf Stream is possible, which will affect the entire planet, but the most devastating consequences will still affect the European continent.climatic changes can affect the cyclical nature and nature of the processes of water mass transfer and thus exacerbate the problem of global warming. According to many scientists, a climatic catastrophe associated with the disruption of the Gulf Stream is possible, which will affect the entire planet, but the most devastating consequences will still affect the European continent.climatic changes can affect the cyclical nature and nature of the processes of water mass transfer and thus exacerbate the problem of global warming. According to many scientists, a climatic catastrophe associated with the disruption of the Gulf Stream is possible, which will affect the entire planet, but the most devastating consequences will still affect the European continent.
It is terrifying to imagine that the same temperatures were last recorded eleven thousand years ago. At first glance, insignificant temperature fluctuations seriously affect the delicate balance of the biosphere and the homeostasis of the geosystem as a whole.
The consequences of climate change are "visible". This is confirmed by both monitoring data and statistics on the number of such phenomena as hurricanes, tsunamis, cyclones, etc. For example, the anomalous cyclone "Maria", assigned to the highest, fifth category, raging in the Lesser Antilles and American Virgin Islands, as well as in Puerto Rico, caused the death of 93 people and caused terrible destruction in those cities that stood in its way … Also, climatic transformations in 2017 were reflected in the change in the strength and number of such unfavorable, and sometimes catastrophic, phenomena such as droughts, flooding, forest and peat fires.
The damage from the 2017 fires in the state of California is recognized as the most significant in the history of the United States. The fire, which formed in Portugal due to abnormally dry weather, killed 47 people on the first day of its occurrence.
Thus, the consequences of climate change already have catastrophic examples of their implementation, if the tendency to warming increases, then the climate will change significantly, which will be reflected in all spheres of human life and will lead to a significant transformation of the appearance and ecosystem of the Earth. Loss of biological diversity, including due to climate change, is still a pressing problem. The Convention on Biological Diversity, adopted in Rio de Janeiro in 1992, is an international agreement, the main goal of which is the conservation of biodiversity. Climate change will put many species at risk, primarily due to the fact that species will not be able to quickly adapt to changed conditions and the loss of habitats. Many ecological zones will simply disappear from the face of the earth. The species that inhabit the arctic and tundra zones will be under threat in the first place. Also extremely quickly, due to the specifics of the habitat, the inhabitants of marine ecosystems will react. To undergo complete destruction of such valuable biodiversity territories as the Cape region of South Africa, where the richest floristic kingdom of the planet is concentrated.
At the moment, the consequences of warming by two degrees are theoretically well studied and modeled, risks and vulnerable zones are identified. The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change is already actively studying the effects of warming by three or four degrees. Such changes will have devastating consequences for the environmental and national security of countries. As the analysis shows, due to the fact that many countries, primarily developing countries, will not be able to reduce greenhouse gas emissions to the detriment of the economy, the planet with a 95% chance will become warmer by 2 degrees by 2100.
We can only hope that time will allow us to develop a strategy that can, if not prevent terrible changes, then at least prepare for them as much as possible.