In order to look into the future of Russia, it is necessary to read into its past, says Russian researcher A. Parkhomenko.
Russia cannot be understood with the mind … Many will agree with these winged words, as our ancestors would probably agree. The idea that we in Russia live according to some special rules or laws (which, however, we cannot comprehend in any way) has long occupied idle minds. And for good reason. In the history of the Fatherland, certain cycles of equal duration can be clearly traced, having studied which one can fairly accurately predict what awaits the country in the 21st century.
So, we draw the axis of time, going from the beginning of the Rurik dynasty to the present day. Then we count from Prince Rurik (862) to 375.5 years. We get the years 1238,1613,1989 and 2365th. These are the years of catastrophes: the invasion of the Tatars, the interregnum and turmoil, the collapse of the USSR … And yet an unknown future event of an equally destructive nature.
The periods between catastrophes will be called cycles. In each cycle we can confidently find four “peaks of power” of the state, as well as “hollows of powerlessness” full of civil strife, wars and reactions. Some unknown reasons make the country periodically fall into abyss and climb up, collapse and recreate again. I warn you right away! I don't know yet what these forces are, I only know what they are.
It can be seen from the diagram that our time at the beginning of the fourth cycle is the trough time. It is clearly expressed everywhere: it was so under Rurik, Yaroslav II Vsevolodovich, Mikhail Romanov, after the death of Brezhnev. In the first troughs of each cycle, the rulers and initiators appear. The acute need for change and the accumulation of efforts in this direction call to the pinnacle of power the rulers of the centralizers who take the helm somewhere between the 17th and 32nd years of the cycle. With decisive action, they end years of powerlessness. In the first cycle, Prince Oleg organizes a grandiose campaign against Byzantium to improve trade relations; in the second, Alexander Nevsky unites the country by the need for protection and trade; in the third, Aleksey Mikhailovich introduced the Cathedral Code of 1649, which “collected” the fractional elements of the nation into large estates.
To understand the logic of further events, you will have to immediately "jump" to the end of the cycle. I was able to notice that the rulers appearing in 195-304 bear signs of the future. History has proven this twice already. For the role of soothsayers, Fate has chosen rebellious rulers who are easy to distinguish from others. They, figuratively speaking, show a fig to the ruling class in this cycle.
In the first cycle, princes dominated, and Andrei Bogolyubsky became the ruler who said “no” to them, and the oprichnina hit the boyars' heads with a cudgel, and nobles appeared to the country, but they had to wait for the third cycle until their “finest hour” arrived. Take a look at the diagram: they appear in their cycles at the same time. And this is the time when Destiny reveals its cards and shows the coming changes in the upper strata of society.
It is characteristic of rebels that they fail to carry out their plans. If princes or boyars rule in the cycle, then to the end. They bring the old ship to the harbor. Only the rulers of the next cycle can change the elite class. As you can see, new figures appear before us. They are always very strong and invincible.
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The Incarnators appear in the years 83-90 of the cycle. There is a connection between them and the rebels. The boyar, shown to Russia by Andrei Bogolyubsky, was put to power by the Prince-Incarnator Ivan Kalita; nobles, shown by Ivan the Terrible - Emperor Peter 1. The rulers in these pairs are in many ways similar to each other. For example, Peter continues the undertakings of Ivan the Terrible: the conquest of the Baltics in order to open up sea routes to the country, the construction of a fleet, a radical reform of the state structure, the weakening and removal of the boyars from power. This couple is similar in the depth of thought about the state, in enlightenment, in decisiveness and firmness in the struggle for the power and glory of the Fatherland.
Under the incarnators, the backbone of the state is formed: Princess Olga, the incarnator of the first cycle, bypassing Russia, establishes judicial and administrative districts and determines the amount of taxes collected. Prince Ivan Kalita establishes general laws binding on princes subject to him in their own lands. Peter I establishes a system of colleges, building a state mechanism like a clock mechanism.
So, starting from the time of Rurik, princes ruled throughout the first cycle, boyars in the second and nobles in the third. In this respect, the Soviet period is a time of transition. The rebel who said "no" to the noble class is well known to us. This is Lenin. But he, like his predecessors, failed to change the rules of the game. To replace the royal nobles. came the "red" nobles.
The above is only an attempt to penetrate the secrets of historical cycles. I noticed that too. often (so that it was a mere coincidence) the fate of some rulers repeat the fate of others. Take Ivan the Terrible and Vasily II. Many people remember the sufferings of young Ivan among the predatory and vicious boyars. For 108 years before him, the ten-year-old Vasily II was in the same position. There is an interval of 108 years between the deaths of their fathers. The same interval between the deaths of their mothers. Both lived in the second cycle and waged an armed struggle against the boyars.
Having adjusted the compass to 108 years, I found that there are similar twins in the third cycle too. At the time when Nicholas II ascended the throne, there was hope that he would be a progressive tsar, in contrast to the well-known reactionaries. Considered as follows: Catherine 11 is good, Paul 1 is bad, Alexander 1 is good, Nikolai 1 is bad; Alexander II is good, Alexander III is bad. Then Nicholas II must be good. However, if we apply the compass set by us for 108 years to the beginning of the reign of Nicholas II, then the second leg will point to the reign of Paul 1. This was a period of striving for despotism, a time of "delirium and chaos."
The simple account did not pay off. And then it can be assumed that the actions and plans of Paul (the war with France, preparation for the war with England and the campaign in India) are a rehearsal of the events of Nicholas's time - the Russian-Japanese and the First World War.
The number 108 comes up repeatedly and when studying the periods following the reign of Paul 1. The aspiration of Alexander 1 with the hands of "young friends" to split the high-ranking opposition of the Senate of "old enemies", and then with the help of these enemies to restrict "young friends" is very reminiscent of the struggle for power in the CPSU in the second quarter of the 20th century. There are also surprisingly similar wars (with Napoleon and Hitler), the Arakcheev and Yezhov terror, the reaction under Nicholas 1 and Brezhnev, its weakening under Alexander II and Gorbachev, etc.
No matter how exciting the study of history in itself, the hidden stimulus here is always the desire, having learned the past, to understand the present and foresee the future. So what lies ahead of us? In 1989, a new cycle began, which will end in 2364 with some regular crisis in the life of the Russian state. What will happen during these 375.5 years?
In the first period, which will last at least 17 years, and at most 32 years, the country will be in a “depression of powerlessness”. The initiating rulers will build a springboard for a certain centralizing ruler, who in 2000-2020 will begin a decisive struggle for the unification of the so-called subjects of the federation. The new ruling class will grow stronger. It is difficult to say what kind of class it will be. It is likely that representatives of all levels of government and new Russians will grow together in it. In 2070-2080, an outstanding ruler of the XXI century is expected to appear, according to the level of deeds corresponding to Princess Olga, Ivan Kalita, Peter 1. He will raise Russia to the heights of power, glory, prosperity.
It is possible to predict in general terms the relationship of Russia with its environment. When the cycles change, the country is fragmented into small parts: in the early periods - into clans and families, in later periods - into cities, principalities, etc. In our time, this pattern manifested itself in the collapse of the USSR and the growing popularity of ideas of independence in all regional levels. Moving along the axis of time, one can notice how Something governing the fate of the country, first creates a single state from small parts, and then mercilessly splits it, then again resuming construction. This has a side effect: parts falling away from the center fall into the sphere of interests of neighboring states.
In conclusion, I would like to say that for those who find the idea of the existence of repeating historical cycles and the possibility of foreseeing the future based on their study doubtful, it would be good to remember that cyclic development is one of the fundamental laws of the Universe. Our whole life is connected with cycles: the seasons of the year, birth and death, with the cycles that govern our well-being, mood, performance, physical, emotional and intellectual. Cycles in the economy are critical. Why shouldn't history obey them?
N. N. Nepomnyashchy