- Part 1 -
EVERYONE WHO SURVIVED IN CATACLISM …
With all the attention to the problems of Europe or China after the global issues of war and peace, we should be interested in the problems of the development of Russia itself. This, however, is also important for the fundamental possibility of world peace, since there are no other powers in the role of a stabilizing guarantor for various reasons. And Russia, due to its unique geopolitical geography, has this objective interest in armed peaceful good-neighborliness and mutual trade with practically all global regions and great powers.
Therefore, one should pay attention to the only main emphasis made by Putin at the final press conference. This is not only an urgent need to implement national projects worth tens of trillions of investments (not just budget spending!), But also a thick allusion to a quick cleanup of the government and regional elites from skeptics and pessimists who are not ready to carry out the May decree.
This inevitable purge, including with demonstrative plantings, will be a correct illustration of our theory of the "great cultural revolution" in Russia and the world. In contrast to the social revolution, when "the upper classes cannot, but the lower classes do not want" in the general distress, the cultural revolution takes place against the background of an improvement in the general situation, when the lower classes want to continue, while the upper classes can and have all the tools to maintain their power. However, due to radical changes in external political and economic conditions, this maintenance of the status quo becomes meaningless. In addition, the historical experience of the social revolution has been well absorbed by the upper elite, and there is an understanding that the status quo expected by the other elite and the population will ultimately lead to a fatal result, although not so quickly, in the next generation. Putin's thesis in his August "pension" televised address with care for "our children" confirms this understanding.
At the same time, the key domestic political event of the year should be considered not only and not so much the "pension reform" as a lever of pressure on the elites of the second or third level, which proved its effectiveness in the autumn series of elections. The second part of the political message became even more important, and therefore not promoted in the mass media. First, the Kremlin issued a provocative "letter from Belousov" about the need to withdraw from large export companies the excess profits from the low ruble exchange rate by half a trillion rubles a year. After that, the trade union of the oligarchs of the Russian Union of Industrialists and Entrepreneurs urgently held a conciliatory round table, where exporters agreed to voluntarily invest (!) In national projects, bypassing the stages of taxes, budgets and government procurement competitions. This is in itself an application for an element of the cultural revolution against the bureaucratic bureaucracy of the highest level. Finally,the packaging of this second application was completed in the form of Putin's public announcement of more than twenty trillion rubles that will go to national projects, not counting another six and a half trillion in a special infrastructure fund.
That is, after the demonstration of the stick, the oligarchs were shown the carrot both for them and for the officials. Just as if this gingerbread did not taste sweet, but bitter when trying to eat it. Firstly, why is the apparent bowing of the oligarchy towards national projects in fact a "carrot" for them. It is strange that they have not yet run around the Kremlin and shouted - "Just don't throw me into this thorny bush." Although it may be - they ran and shouted, but they asked not to tell anyone. I can quite imagine the Rotenbergs, Kovalchuk, Sparrow, Golikov and others complaining to Putin, Lavrov or Shoigu about the impossibility of investing in the West the money saved on government orders and exports, and therefore saving for children and grandchildren in the form of capital, and not just cash deposits in conditions of imminent inflation. They are not so simple and trusting,these rich buratinas.
However, departmental officials for the most part perceived the news of twenty trillion precisely as a "carrot" intended for the usual cut on government orders. Perhaps only in the leadership of the Ministry of Finance there is already an idea that even the budgetary half of the expenditures on national projects is necessarily due to the presence of investment plans and programs that are recouped even over decades. In all other departments, deputy ministers and heads of departments are urgently trusting now and must submit the necessary applications for national projects, but, alas, according to old templates.
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Does anyone believe that cadres of officials who have grown up and raised in the paradigm of the sawing state order are capable of completely changing their thinking in six months? That they will be able to give out real, and not purely formal and obviously unprofitable projects ?!) Personally, I did not doubt the answer, but just in case I found out how the officials were doing there: So far, neither sleep nor spirit, even the best and competent in bureaucratic work they simply do not understand what it is about. Even the best do not know how new markets are actually created and expanded for new technologies based on the introduction of new business standards, but not stifling business bureaucratic reporting. Ordinary shots, of whom the majority, just stupidly typeset familiar schemes and, the funny thing, out of habit, do not show their work to anyone. Despite the explicit demands from above from the vice-premiers, openly discuss applications with experts and the business community. But the figurines, we ourselves with a mustache and will not show anyone, as usual.
However, where will the applications for national projects prepared by the departments go now? No, not only to the government office to Prikhodko, where the same officials and colleagues on budget cuts sit. At the same time, through the presidential council headed by Belousov, these applications will go to the management and business analysts of those very large export and state corporations. Where from these applications, just as naturally, there will be no stone unturned after well-reasoned criticism. Top managers of corporations will not invest in failed investment projects, if only because stock prices and even the current multimillion-dollar annual premiums depend on their assessment. Not to mention capitalization for future periods. Thus, the Kremlin has already set up a tunnel under the cohesive corporation of officials with a not-so-loud glance. So it is possible to evaluate in this context Putin's irony about the “eternal,but necessary bureaucracy.
On the other hand, large corporations, although they are more advanced in investment matters, are also unlikely to be able to present fundamentally new programs and projects to the Kremlin, in addition to those that have already been developed by them. Again, their submitted applications for participation in national projects will also be sent to their now opponents in the face of departmental and government officials. In the conditions of total wiretapping by the special services, it is unlikely that these two parties will dare to conspire bash for bash just to push their projects through. Moreover, corporations do not need such a conspiracy if the investment project is economically justified. And it is easier to prove its validity in the Kremlin, and not to offended officials from the White House. But in any case, and for many state corporations this deliberate bumping of their heads with curators from departments will seem like a stick, not a carrot.
This is the general disposition on the main domestic political issue - the absence of a sovereign investment mechanism, not mediated by Western unipolar authorities. It may, in our country, would continue to habitually roll downhill and decay, however, the highest globalist authorities have forced themselves to respect themselves, and they cannot invent better. Accordingly, the current internal situation in terms of economic policy is largely a projection of the global situation. Likewise, all previous methods of politics have been exhausted, and the system has slowed down badly on the threshold of unknown changes in direction. Hence all this obvious despondency in bureaucratic, business and expert circles, who suddenly lost a very important part of their competence, or competence, or both, I also got confused. What an expert you areif the subject of your knowledge is already strictly in the past? Now you are just a memoirist or a modern historian. Nobody knows what and how it will be.
As at the global level, there is a pause in domestic economic policy until spring, which is necessary at least for the formal consideration of the deliberately dull applications from our pessimists. After that, it will be time for the first demonstrative analysis of the departure, or even right through, horseradish radish is not sweeter. However, politics in general cannot take a pause, the power as a whole must rely on something. Such support now, as the peace in Syria and the exhaustion of violent fantasies in Kiev, when the government is bogged down in national projects - there is only one, the special services. Therefore, the longer officials will pause and not restructure their work on national projects, the more likely it is not just personnel and organizational, but investigative actions and court decisions. This is not even a threat, but an objective political reality. So it is better to voluntarily jump out of office yourself, without waiting for the funnel. Although it is unlikely that they will succeed - to take and abandon the already almost swallowed "trillion" bait.
As for the pension reform, it has already partly begun to clean up politics in the fall elections, knocking out equally mossy regional elites. The further and closer to the Duma elections, the more the gloomy mood of the voters will influence the party of unity of officials and big business. So this is also an important incentive to search for non-standard economic solutions and investments in the regions. For the Kremlin, the already almost programmed defeat of United Russia in the 2021 elections is not a big problem, unlike the prime minister, ministers and governors, as well as many business deputies who already needed immunity. So if you want to live well and in freedom, start spinning, wiggling your brains and thinking about the real, and not the formal, bureaucratic and saw-cut implementation of national projects in your region, industry. In short,become an optimist as said.
Continued: Part 3