Predictions by investors, executives and entrepreneurs on how the lives of people and cities will change over the next decade.
Tatiana Danielyan, Deputy Director for Research and Development, ABBYY
It is necessary to be careful when making forecasts for 10 years ahead, because we still cannot even imagine much. But the general premise is that in the coming years, robotic process automation (RPA) and artificial intelligence will penetrate all areas of our life - from dating, medicine or trading on the stock exchange to oil production. And they will radically change each of them.
What will happen? According to McKinsey estimates, up to 50% of work processes in the world will be automated by 2036. Artificial intelligence will take over the processing and analysis of huge amounts of information in various industries: biotechnology, medicine, banks, retail, industry, energy, agriculture, and so on.
For example, he will be able to instantly find the necessary financial, legal or technical data in documents, monitor the company's reputation in the media, predict the growth of shares on the stock exchange, diagnose diseases, and so on.
So, 99% of financial services will go online, a person will no longer need to come to a bank office or wait for a field manager. Banking systems will remotely receive biometric information from customers, pull up personal data from the database, and analyze possible risks. Fingerprints or retinas may be used instead of a signature.
Smart technologies are already being used in scoring models. With their help, banks collect information about clients from open sources and decide on the issuance of loans. In the future, this analysis will become more complicated, it will be possible to evaluate even people without a credit history - by their behavior, comments and photos in social networks.
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All this means that companies will be able to make decisions tens of times faster, and the role of employees in the workflow will change. Instead of being a performer, the person will lead the smart algorithms. We will teach robots or solve problems with them - faster and more accurately.
Hazardous production and simple routine operations will be completely transferred to machines, and specialists will only control their work and generate new ideas.
Digital twins will become widespread - technologies that offer optimal operating modes for equipment, predict its failures, and recommend repair times.
Cities will become cleaner: aerial cables will go underground, and street cleaning vehicles will move without human assistance. They will be small, capacious, and instead of fuel they will be able to use garbage.
The Internet will be everywhere and will be free. The payment for its use will be data about our life, work and behavior: with their help, personal offers of goods and services will be created for us.
People won't need to read and process a lot of data. The machine itself will select documents, pictures, videos and offer a concise retelling of the processed information.
Medicine will make a huge leap forward in development. We will not only live longer, but also be born healthier, get sick less and age more slowly. Already today, using text analytics, doctors are able to quickly find scientific articles in the global knowledge base, diagnose, and prescribe treatment.
In addition, experiments are under way with editing the genetic code. For example, Deep Genomics promises to completely cure spinal muscular atrophy, a hereditary disease that damages the neurons of the spinal cord, in 11 years.
Mikhail Balabanov, Director of Digital Business at Home Credit Bank
In my opinion, we will observe several trends in retail banking over the next 10 years.
1. Fees will be charged, and rewards will be charged, only for the "useful" work of money: loans, deposits, investment programs, and so on.
Translations will no longer cost anything. In other words, wherever money creates added value, there will be a redistribution of this value. The movement of electronic cash will cease to bear the cost, and the most progressive financial companies will abolish the payment for it, at the same time losing part of the transaction income.
2. Banks will gradually begin to specialize in narrow consumer and product segments, leaving the service markets on which they would prefer not to focus.
Already now we see banks for mortgages or financial institutions for cross-border transfers. I think this specialization will become even more narrow in the most unexpected sections. How do you like a bank for travelers, for example?
3. The client will choose the interface (or even assemble it on his own) and connect the services to it, but will stop choosing the provider of the service itself. Services will also be the subject of public ratings, not banks or companies. Banks will strive to make each specific service as popular as possible (with a high rating) and to get into the interfaces with it to the maximum number of users.
By the way, apparently, the beginnings of this trend have already been determined by the PSD2 directive (the European Union directive on the provision of payment services - vc.ru). Of course, there will be much more trends, and much of what will become obvious in 10 years now seems not only controversial, but completely incredible.
Evgeny Kuznetsov, Ambassador of Singularity University
Technology, life and the appearance of cities in the next 10 years will change quite dramatically, because each technological breakthrough is associated with one or another stage of urbanization.
We are now on the cusp of a new global urbanization. Gigapolises associated with large distributed agglomerations will appear. This is due to the fact that thanks to digital technology, it is possible to more accurately describe and shape the social fabric.
There is no longer any need to concentrate urban services (eg educational) around city centers. Many centers and micro-cities will appear, united into a single space.
This is a very serious transformation. I expect that in 10 years Moscow will not be perceived as a single city within the Moscow Ring Road. Instead, it will be perceived as a collection of agglomerations.
On the technological side, our desire to make the most of the information environment will lead to the city becoming a single digital whole.
To do this, however, you will have to overcome many barriers associated with ensuring individual rights and information security. But over time, each person will have a permanent, predictable digital footprint that the city will work with. That is, the space will know where we are going, what we want, what plans we have, and so on.
Today we see this in contextual advertising: we open Facebook or Google, and the system shows us what we want to see. The same will happen offline: we will see an environment in front of us that offers active scenarios based on predicting our behavior.
Yuri Deigin, Vice President, Science for Life Extension Foundation
Within 10 years, big changes will take place in the field of health: thanks to the development of gene therapy, we will finally begin to fight the root cause of diseases, not their symptoms.
Already today, gene therapy for congenital blindness and lymphomas is approved in America. A number of diseases are on the way, and within 10 years - even aging itself.
The most revolutionary changes in society will happen thanks to artificial intelligence. Within five to ten years, an ultra-intelligent AI will be developed: it will begin to oust people from almost all professions. To compensate for these processes, an unconditional basic income will be introduced in many countries.
Sergey Alimbekov, director of technological development, IIDF
The technologies that could take off in the next 10 years are likely to have already appeared and are working in some form today. They need to be looked for among already known samples and prototypes.
Innovation is effective only when it solves user problems. For example, they allow us to reduce the amount of spent resources, help to save time, and provide us with greater comfort.
Uber is a classic example of this kind of innovation. In all cities with a population of over one million people were annoyed by the taxi service in the "old" form: with negotiations on the phone, catching taxi drivers "by hand", risks and uncertain tariffs.
Uber's proposal solved these problems, showed a model and approach, as a result, the taxi industry has radically transformed almost everywhere. Although Uber itself is not as successful as its proposed path to transform the taxi industry.
The areas that are most annoying are the first on the update list. These are the market segments where communication between consumers and market players is most complicated, conflicting and not optimized.
In the near future, the system of communication between a citizen and the state will be greatly simplified. This applies to document circulation, accounting of statuses and conditions, tax reporting, legal proceedings.
In the same row and housing and communal services: in terms of accounting for consumed resources and technologies for the provision of services. In addition, healthcare: in this area, telemedicine can fundamentally improve the quality of services and open access to them for citizens in hard-to-reach regions.
The education sector is also developing dynamically: people have more requests for vocational education and the development of their skills. Changes in all these areas will take place simultaneously, and, most likely, we will not even notice these processes at once.
Alexey Ohienko, head of Deus
The next 10 years will be marked by the era of robotics: robots will replace humans in many industries and services. Robots will drive the streets, pick up trash, regulate traffic, deliver packages, and so on.
In 10 years, self-driving electric cars will become the standard, more likely people will rent them than buy them. Electricity should become several times cheaper, which I really hope for.
Undoubtedly, all this will be very closely correlated with the development of artificial intelligence. Neurotechnology will take a leap forward. Advanced diagnosis of diseases will help prevent their development.
This will automate and optimize many processes of human activity, speed up and simplify them. The flip side of the coin is that not all countries will be able to master and introduce new technologies. The gap in the level of infrastructures of developed and underdeveloped countries will widen even more, which will affect the world economy.
Maxim Zyabkin, founder and CEO of Maxitube
The main trend of the next 10 years is the transition to "smart" cities. They will definitely get bigger and taller, and it will become more difficult to live in them. Technologies (the Internet of Things, big data, self-driving transport, pipeline delivery of goods and goods) will develop, but still will not be able to keep up with the growth rates of the cities themselves.
In the future, there will be a new unit for measuring value - the cost of human attention. It will be something in between the number of impressions and the amount of attention a person has spent on the content.
Production will be transferred to autobotic systems. And AI will follow them. This optimizes production processes and minimizes the human factor.
People will be freed from routine processes (cooking, self-parking, and so on). Already now, the main human value is time. It is stupid to waste it on mundane processes like cooking. And in the future, the price of human time will grow many times over.
The world will move away from the use of non-renewable energy sources - the future belongs to electricity. It will be produced, among other things, from the "green" sources - the sun, wind, water, and so on.
Medicine will take a technological step forward. Scientists will be able to grow new artificial tissues and organs, including bones and teeth.
Entertainment will become interactive gameplay with a high level of human involvement and participation.
Dmitry Dyrmovsky, General Director of the "Center for Speech Technologies"
It is known that Bill Gates recently invested in the creation of a "smart" city in Arizona from scratch - it is planned to launch unmanned vehicles, modern automated production facilities, use of solar energy, create a comfortable friendly environment, minimize emissions, and so on.
Google has a similar project - the company plans to create an innovative city in the suburbs of Toronto, Canada.
If it is possible to build something from scratch in 10 years, then it is another matter to transform such a complex system as a large settlement that has already been built. We will not get a completely “smart” city so soon - the elements will change gradually.
Due to the development of wireless networks, as well as machine vision, machine hearing and artificial intelligence, the transport sector will change - unmanned vehicles will enter public roads, smart car sharing systems, and traffic control optimization will be developed.
Security systems will change dramatically: access control, border control, law enforcement. Document verification and identity verification in the traditional sense will move away in favor of biometric authentication.
The combination of video analytics with biometrics will generate new predictive security mechanisms based on the results of behavioral analytics and event recognition.
All these technologies will allow machines to understand people much better - mechanisms for recognizing emotions will be added to the analysis of buying and search activity, and speech recognition will not be inferior in accuracy to a human.
Until neurointerfaces are invented, we will talk with smart home systems, cars, computers. Everything will be maximally personalized - there will be "smart" showcases with contextual advertising in stores, personal offers in banks, services, at gas stations. Personal virtual assistants will surely come into use, with whom it will be easy to communicate - as in the movie "She".
Vlad Tislenko, Head of Concepter
I think one of the strongest influences on the future will have artificial intelligence and machine learning. I think that in 10 years most of the routine work in developed countries will no longer be done by people, but by software.
Electric transport and self-driving cars will become the norm, and some countries are likely to impose a ban on combustible vehicles. Given the interests of the new generation, there will be a dramatic shift in the behavioral character of humankind.
Many more people will be working in the creative industry and tech companies. The norms in society, consumption and our attitude to things will change. The word “bought” can replace the word “rented”, patriotism can be greatly weakened, since the availability of travel will lead people to the concept of “earthling”. It is likely that religiosity and the institution of the family will become even less important in society.
