Astronomers predict: in 10 years, an ice age may begin on our planet. But will it go to extremes?
Sun activity appears to be declining. And this is fraught with catastrophic changes on our planet. Several research groups are intimidated by such concerns. They say, the Sun entered the next 11-year cycle of its activity with a great delay. B - 24th. The next - the 25th, which is expected in 2020, may be a year or two late. Or not at all. This is allegedly evidenced by a number of anomalous processes now taking place in our sun.
For example, spots are gradually disappearing from the Sun. According to data from Matt Penn and William Livingston of the US National Solar Observatory (NSO), accumulated since 1990, the number of sunspots will be halved in the current cycle. And by the 25th cycle, the star will be completely cleansed. This means that its activity will also noticeably decrease.
A team led by Dr Richard Altrock, an astrophysicist at the Air Force Research Laboratory, discovered oddities in the movement of plasma streams inside the Sun. And, as a result, abnormal changes in magnetic fields. Namely, the formation of spots mainly depends on them. As a result, Altrok and his colleagues also saw extreme weakness in the upcoming 25th solar cycle.
Another group of scientists did not see in the solar corona - the hottest and most restless part of the star - characteristic signs of the preparation of the 25th cycle. Usually they - signs - become noticeable long before it begins, when the previous cycle is still continuing. At this time, the zone of activity begins to shift from the high latitudes of the Sun towards the equator. And the new magnetic field pushes the remnants of the previous cycle to the poles. Such processes should have already begun. But they are not. And it worries.
Cold perspective
If the harbingers of a weakening of solar activity turn out to be true, then the Earth will face bitter frosts even in summer.
The so-called small ice ages happened from 1310 to 1370, from 1645 to 1715. At this time, the number of sunspots was rapidly decreasing in comparison with the "normal" years. The Thames and the Seine froze, snow fell even in southern Italy.
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Scientists, of course, cannot make an accurate prediction. But if solar activity continues to decline, then a strong cooling may begin as early as 2020. Or even earlier. And no amount of global warming caused by the activities of human civilization will stop it.
We are of course the Little Ice Age. We will survive. A big one? Is it very large?
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According to one of the hypotheses called "Snowball Earth", our planet, at least once - in the Neoproterozoic era, about 700-800 million years ago - froze so that it turned into an ice ball. This was evidenced by sedimentary glacial rocks found almost at the equator. It turned out that ice covered the current tropical regions at that time. And God forbid, this will happen again … It is unlikely that civilization will survive such a cataclysm.
Recently, the icy perspective was slightly "warmed" by researchers from France, the USA, Brazil and Malaysia, who studied in more detail those very glacial rocks (in Brazil) and estimated the concentration of carbon dioxide at that distant time. It turned out that the Earth never turned into a "snowball". And in the tropical zone there was probably open water, plants and animals. There they waited out the cataclysm.
In other words, if in the distant past glaciation was not quite so extreme, then we should not expect extremes even now. This is somehow reassuring.
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Neither hot nor cold
- Penn and Livingston analyzed not all spots, but only the largest ones, of which only a few percent, says Sergei Yazev, senior researcher at the Institute of Solar-Terrestrial Physics SB RAS, director of the Astronomical Observatory at Irkutsk State University. - In this connection, the predictions of a sharp cooling so far seem unreasonable. As well as forecasts of further warming.
From my point of view, neither one nor the other will happen. There are fluctuations in some parameters of the climate, which were, are and will always be. But, of course, things will not reach the glaciers.
The hypothesis that the cooling is associated with sunspots does exist. Until it is proven. But it is not refuted either.
Yes, in the period from 1645 to 1715 there were very few sunspots on the Sun (the so-called Maunder minimum). At the same time, it was rather frosty in Europe. Most experts on the Sun, myself included, assume that these events are related. But it is hardly so simple - there were fewer spots, and it immediately got colder. If these phenomena are connected, then it is much more complicated - in many stages. There is still a lot of work to be done to figure out exactly how.
Are there any calculations that show how much the Sun must change its activity for the Ice Age to begin on Earth?
- It's not that simple here either. After all, the Earth "adapts" to changes in the flow of solar radiation. For example, due to the fact that our planet flies around the Sun not in a circle, but in an ellipse, we are either closest to the star or farthest. Due to this, the total flux of light and heat from the Sun varies within about 5 percent. But a lot depends, for example, on cloudiness. Say, the planet Venus, which is much closer to the Sun, nevertheless receives much less heat from it than the Earth? A huge part of the solar radiation is reflected back into space by a thick layer of Venusian clouds, in which there are never gaps …
The Earth behaves the same way. When it gets too warm, moisture evaporates and clouds form, reflecting the sun's rays. As a result, less heat comes in. But then evaporation decreases, which means that there are fewer clouds, and again more heat breaks through to the surface of our planet … An excellent system of automatic thermoregulation!
Therefore, the temperature on the Earth depends not only on changes in the flow of solar radiation, but mainly on the processes in the atmosphere and in the ocean - how heat is distributed and redistributed in the earth's shells. Compared to these factors, the Sun is a very stable source of energy. Due to fluctuations in the level of solar activity, fluctuations in the total heat flux change by no more than 0.5 percent. This is 10 times less than, say, due to the movement of the Earth around the Sun.
On our planet, dozens of the most complex physical natural mechanisms operate, which act both in the forward and in the opposite direction, smoothing and, conversely, strengthening external influences. If they were not there, the average temperature would swing with a large amplitude, from terrible frosts to killing heat. The planet's climate machine is well balanced - that is why life on our planet has been successfully existing for almost 4 billion years …
