Scientists from the Vladimir Sukachev Institute of Forest of the Siberian Branch of the Russian Academy of Sciences have shown that by the 2080s, global warming will make Siberia an attractive place to live. Attention was drawn to the report of scientists made in the city of Chiba (Japan) at a joint conference of the Japanese and American Geophysical Unions.
“The CMIP5 models predict that by the 2080s Siberia will have a milder and more temperate climate with less permafrost coverage … A projected temperate climate and a doubling of crop production could attract people to migrate to Siberia during this century,” the authors state in the paper.
As an object for the study, scientists have chosen the climate of Central Siberia - a geographical region of Russia, which, according to the study, is located between 85-105 degrees east longitude and 51-75 degrees north latitude, including the Krasnoyarsk Territory, the republics of Khakassia and Tyva. For forecasting, specialists used ten global climate models of the CMIP5 project (Coupled Model Intercomparison Project).
The authors showed that by the 2080s, temperatures in the middle of winter in Central Siberia will rise by 9.1 degrees Celsius, and in summer by 5.7 degrees, the level of annual precipitation will increase by 60-140 millimeters. The ecological potential of the landscape, which determines its suitability for humans, for most of Central Siberia will decrease by 1-2 (the scale varies from 1 to 7, where 1 corresponds to the highest potential), and the population density may increase threefold.
Climatic data for 1960-1990 from a hundred meteorological stations, also analyzed by scientists, showed that the modern climate is generally unfavorable for people living in Central Siberia, especially in the permafrost zone. Only some lands in the forest-steppe zone, free from permafrost, are currently suitable for humans.
The authors and experts agree that the migration of people to Siberia can be impeded by socio-economic factors, in particular the underdeveloped infrastructure of the region, as well as swamping of the area. The latter factor leads to the release of methane into the atmosphere and, as a consequence, warming. Rising temperatures, in turn, will provoke an active proliferation of forests, which absorb carbon and thereby slow down warming.