Although scientific predictions of the future are popular, futurists' perceptions of the future have remained almost unchanged over a century. Much of what was predicted has become reality, but humanity has not realized this. Perhaps the problem is that technical advances do not change much in our personal life, do not make it more comfortable and safe …
Errors of futurology
Futurology emerged in the second half of the 19th century, and since its inception, it has claimed to predict the future based on "scientific" data. However, time passed, and the predictions of futurologists either did not come true, or did not come true as they expected. A good example is the work of Albert Robida, a Frenchman who produced whole illustrated tomes in the 1880s about how Europeans would live in the 20th century.
He approached his predictions with humor, but he was able to very accurately describe the system of versatile video communication, which allows not only to chat with friends who are on another continent, but also to study, watch theatrical performances and sports live broadcasts. Robida called the system a telephonoscope, we call it the information network, or the Internet.
So, the Frenchman's prediction came true, but attention is drawn to the fact that for all the perspicacity of the description of the external side of technology, he was greatly mistaken in predicting the life of the future - he did not have enough imagination to imagine a world in which men would prefer a tailcoat, jeans and a T-shirt outside, and women would become wear short skirts and pants.
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Albert Robida was also mistaken in assessing the future social order - he believed that higher education, personal transport and communication systems would remain at the mercy of monarchical families and nobility, which would continue to decide the fate of the world. Social change is the hardest to predict. And without them, any forecast is very vulnerable …
The right things
The situation has not improved in the 21st century either. Professor Richard Barbrook, in his book "Imaginary Future", noted that, despite the colossal technological progress that has radically changed the urban life over the past 50 years, futurists' ideas about the future have remained the same. They still promise the coming of the century of ecological cleanliness, victory over hunger and social injustice. But the most interesting thing is that this century has already come.
Of course, not all states, including Russia, can boast that they have solved their basic problems. However, breakthrough successes in the field of ecology, alternative energy, transport technologies, agricultural production, medical services speak for themselves. Our world is becoming cleaner and more perfect than it was half a century ago.
The most surprising thing is that futurists hardly noticed how life changed thanks to the information revolution. More precisely, they noticed, but did not realize the global nature of the changes. But the process of introducing the achievements of this revolution, which began in the mid-1970s, is not yet complete, and many amazing new products await us.
There is such a concept - "closing technology". We are talking about a kind of technological system (or device), which, thanks to the search of scientists, becomes the ultimate embodiment of the possibilities expected from this technology. And it is clear that until the system has reached this ultimate embodiment, we will require scientists and engineers to improve it.
Therefore, in order to predict what technical innovations await us in the future, it is enough to imagine what we are missing. I'm afraid the overwhelming majority of people will start dreaming of new and new gadgets, but these are just things. They cannot be the meaning of life.
Cyber communism
The aforementioned Richard Barbrook in his book "Imaginary Future" notes that during the Cold War, American analysts came to believe in the idea that the Soviet government set itself the goal of creating "cyber communism" - a system of management and production in which all unskilled and uncreative labor is entrusted to "smart »Robots. Indeed, something similar was described, for example, in the utopian novels of Arkady and Boris Strugatsky.
The highest military-political circles of the Western world were seriously concerned about the threats lurking in "cybernetic communism", because it could become the nucleus of a new world order destroying capitalist statehood. Richard Barbrook believes that the American government decided to play ahead of the curve by creating its own electronic control system, which has grown into the Internet known to us.
The utopia of "cyber-communism" promised such bright prospects that it was difficult to resist even in the United States. The nuance is that at the beginning of the 21st century we are on the verge of this utopia. Harmful production lines are increasingly automated. 3D printing technology allows for on-site production of anything from simple items to apartment buildings.
Huge work teams are easily replaced by small teams of engineers. The Internet makes it possible in the twinkling of an eye to perform any operations at any distance. Private firms compete successfully with state corporations, even in such a labor-intensive and expensive area as astronautics.
The question arises: where to go next? What to dream about today, when a utopia invented in the second half of the 20th century becomes a reality?..
World set free
Let's approach the problem from a different angle. What do adults dream about if they are healthy, well fed, protected from disasters and mortal threats?
The answer is self-evident: personal freedom. We can be as skeptical as we like about the priority of human rights, about the choice of lifestyle and so on, but at the moment when someone or something tries to limit the growth of our capabilities and degrees of freedom, it always causes strong internal resistance in us.
High technology will allow us to gain true freedom. This will happen through the decentralization of state and corporate governance, because information networks under the control of artificial intelligence will successfully cope with what hordes of officials are doing today. Energy needs are met by compact generators that use renewable resources.
Housing, household items and equipment for personal use can be produced in universal three-dimensional printers. Work will become a hobby, and a hobby will become work. Each of us will have the opportunity for individual development in the circle of those who share our interests. The space of active creativity of a liberated person will expand immensely to include not only continents, but also oceans and near space.
One can dream of such a world. Such a world needs to be built. The main thing is that the pursuit of personal freedom does not limit the freedom of others.
Anton PERVUSHIN