But it is too early to throw away fur coats and skis. Why - Alexey Sokov, director of the Shirshov Institute of Oceanology of the Russian Academy of Sciences, explained on the air of KP radio.
WARMING IS NOT SO ALSO GLOBAL
Spring is coming soon, but consider that there was no real winter - at least in the middle lane. As an oceanologist, you should know where winter has gone. After all, the ocean is the kitchen of the weather
- Of course, the ocean is responsible for climate change. Although there are different theories in science. Many meteorologists deny the ocean's leading role.
Yes, when we talk about the weather, we mean the air temperature. This winter in Moscow is 7 degrees warmer than the climatic norm, the average temperature on Earth over a hundred years has grown by an average of two degrees. But 70% of the Earth's surface is occupied by oceans. Does it mean that the water has warmed up too?
“The problem is that climatologists only take into account the surface water temperature, up to a maximum of 500 meters. But in vain. Not so long ago there was a revolution in oceanology. It used to be thought that the ocean is two-layer - the upper layer is warm, the lower one is cold. And they don't mix with each other. In the last 30-40 years, it has become obvious that this is not the case. The ocean at depth is also changeable, there are strong currents. And most importantly, the interaction of the upper layer and the lower one does not take place in a thousand years, as was assumed earlier, but almost instantly, within a few days. All this must be taken into account in global warming models. They don't do that now.
It is important to understand that global warming occurs in a very thin layer: the near-surface atmosphere and the surface layer of the ocean. And the upper atmosphere is cooling. And the deep layers of the ocean too.
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FROST MAY BACK
- Take the Gulf Stream. For nearly twenty years, our institute has been measuring the North Atlantic every year, from England to Greenland. Temperature, salinity, currents, chemical parameters … And in total, measurements in this part of the ocean have been conducted for about 60 years. What have we installed? The Gulf Stream is changing. The time scale of these changes is 12-15 years. It intensifies, then weakens. And the heat transfer to the north increases and decreases. The Gulf Stream breathes. Which influences the climate. If the Gulf Stream is stronger, we see a warming of the Arctic and a change in the movement of cyclones. Like now. But, I stress, there is no trend. It is the temporary fluctuations that occur.
That is, it is not a fact that the ice of the Arctic Ocean will melt and gardens will bloom in Siberia? When the Gulf Stream does not bring so much warmth, normal winters return, will fur coats and skis be needed again?
- Certainly. We can go back to freezing winters too.
But there are already plans for how much cargo will be transported along the Northern Sea Route in 10, 20, 30 years, when there will be less ice
- Such plans should be made. This is preparation, brainstorming. Yes, we are calculating, but this does not mean that everything will come true.
MAMMONTS, CACTUSES AND BUCKET OF WATER
The climate has changed before. There were ice ages and warm times. But now the weather has changed literally before our eyes. Is it an accident or a system?
- I think the system. Think of the frozen mammoths with cacti in their stomachs. Probably, then, too, something quickly happened to the climate. Abrupt changes occur during the period of fractures - warming or cooling. Conventionally, the ice age lasts a long time, thousands of years. And at the junction of the ice age and warming, sharp fluctuations are observed. Now, for example, the total amount of precipitation does not change. But they fall out extremely unevenly - either drought or heavy rain. These are those drastic climate changes.
Like in Australia: three years of drought, terrible fires, and then showers and floods?
- Quite right. You have, roughly speaking, a bucket of water that falls in Australia in a year. Previously, this bucket was poured over a mug throughout the year, but now it pours out immediately, and then drought. Science has proven that this is a consequence of global warming.
COMPARE CHP TO THE OCEAN
How do you feel about Greta Thunberg? More precisely, to her calls not to fly planes and generally use the achievements of civilization less so as not to spoil the climate?
- It is important to separate ecology and climate. Radiation and chemical pollution, the same plastic, definitely have a harmful effect on nature. There is no need to dirty the house in which we live. However, ecology and climate are not very related things. Man, probably, also influences the climate. But in a chain of many factors: the sun, space, volcanism, the earth's axis … Science must separate natural climatic changes from anthropogenic ones.
Conditionally - we are not responsible for everything that is happening on Earth?
- Quite right. My teacher Sergei Sergeevich Lappo did not accept people for graduate school who could not assess the energy of a thermal power plant in comparison with a cyclone, a volcanic eruption or the Gulf Stream. In joules and kilowatts. On this scale, human impact is minimal. One example, convection in the North Atlantic: cold winds blow from Greenland, surface warm waters cool and sink to the bottom. The process of transformation of warm waters into cold ones is accompanied by the release of heat into the atmosphere. And only in one small point near Greenland the energy exceeds all Hiroshima, Nagasaki and all combined heat and power plants. Dozens, sometimes thousands of times.
WHAT ARE THE GARBAGE ISLANDS?
What else surprising have you discovered recently?
- It turns out that eddies occur in ocean water - the same as cyclones and anticyclones in the atmosphere. Or the colossal speed of bottom currents. And connected with this, for example, is the problem of burying radioactive waste, for example. After the Second World War, they were simply thrown to the bottom, including in the Baltic Sea. And they thought that they had buried, and nothing would happen, we secured ourselves. And now it is clear that this is not so. At the bottom of the ocean, the current can be 30-40 centimeters per second, and it erodes the soil.
Is it true that in the ocean there are whole garbage islands the size of continents? There are many such photos on the Internet
- I have not seen garbage islands. Although he crossed the Pacific Ocean twenty times.
On the islands of Novaya Zemlya in the Arctic, the bays are filled with plastic. After the storm Gloria in Spain, plastic garbage, which is 40 years old, was thrown onto the beaches …
- Of course, this must be fought. But I have not seen garbage islands of a frightening scale.
FIGHT FOR FISHING PLACES
Where is the fish caught now?
- North Atlantic, North Pacific and Antarctica. Subpolar regions are the most fishy places.
Our Antarctic expedition aboard the Mstislav Keldysh is currently studying krill.
The entire world's oceans are shared by international fishing-related scientific programs - despite the maritime convention that says the open ocean belongs to everyone. There is a fight for biological resources. Why did "Keldysh" go to Antarctica? Because Russia has been banned from catching krill. For a simple reason: you are not doing scientific research, you are not investing in the study of the ecosystem. And if you don't research, then you don't get it.
But the ocean is also oil, gas, metals …
- Oil and gas are mainly on the shelf, and it belongs to specific countries. But yes, there is a division with mineral resources in the ocean. These are ferromanganese nodules, sulfide crusts. Back in the days of the USSR, we spent several years in the Pacific Ocean in the area of the Clarion-Clipperton faults, where Russia has announced several sites for the extraction of ferromanganese nodules. But soon the license will expire. If we do not conduct scientific research, then, according to international agreements, we will be prohibited from mining.
Who are our competitors?
- The whole world. First of all, Europe, USA, India, China. And they want to divide Antarctica because of resources. And the whole World Ocean.
ALEXANDER MILKUS, YULIA SMIRNOVA
