We are all waiting for the coming of the future. When flying cars replace ground cars and thus free the roads of choking cities; when a person opens the first space colony and sets off to conquer the far horizons of our solar system and beyond; when we all become immortal, or at least learn how to create and replace organs and limbs that fail, thereby extending the life span. Unfortunately, this all sounds more like a utopia than a reality. Reality, as usual, turns out to be much more prosaic and even more cynical. Today we will talk about the most frustrating and frightening concepts, developments and possible scenarios for our future, which we may not witness, but our grandchildren and great-grandchildren.
Everyone can create their own pandemic
Earlier this year, the Oxford-based Global Priorities Project compiled a list of disasters that could wipe out 10 percent or more of the world's population. And the highest levels of this list, which is not at all surprising, are occupied by artificially created pandemics (read global epidemics). Moreover, the authors of the work warn that this may happen in the next five years.
Most of the technologies that could lead to this development are already beginning to emerge. And this list of technologies rightly includes the CRISPR / cas9 genetic modification system and 3D bioprinters. In addition, the basic schemes that can lead to the creation of pandemics are now effectively in the public domain. About 10 years ago, futurist Ray Kurzweil and technologist Bill Joy lashed out at the US Department of Health, which published a complete picture of the genome of the 1918 flu virus, calling it "incredible stupidity." Relatively recently, a group of scientists also decided to speak out when the journal Nature decided to publish, in fact, instructions for increasing the effectiveness of bird flu, by mutating into something even more deadly.
Illustrated version of Stephen King's novel Confrontation
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The point is that sooner or later various radical groups, terrorist groups or sociopathic individuals may become interested in such information and create their own viruses.
People who transfer their minds to a computer will actually kill themselves
One of the most radical ideas about the future world is related to the rejection of mortal human bodies and transferring oneself to the digital environment. It's about completely transferring your mind from your biological brain to a super-powerful supercomputer. This process, however, according to some scientists and researchers, will lead to the complete destruction of the original human essence. In fact, this will become a form of unintentional suicide.
All this is connected with the so-called problem of "continuity of consciousness". Of course, in the future we will most likely learn how to cut, copy and paste the essence of a person and his memories into the digital environment, but the process of transferring consciousness itself will actually become a means of execution. Neurophysiologists know that memories themselves are stored in the brain in physical membranes - neurons. That is, in theory, at the physical level, we will be able to copy these data banks. However, our knowledge of consciousness is still at a primitive level. We still do not even understand how it appears in the brain, let alone how to transfer it from point A to point B. In addition, it is quite possible that subjective consciousness cannot be transferred to the digital environment at all.
Ben Kingsley's character transfers his mind into another person's body in Beyond / Himself
The actual digitization of the brain and its loading into the digital environment will most likely require destructive scanning at the atomic level. An example of this would be teleportation, which is shown in the same Star Trek movie. According to the scientific basis of this film, every time you teleport, the original copy of a person is disassembled into atoms, copied and simultaneously destroyed. The mind transfer process can be similar. The original copy will be destroyed and replaced with a digital copy, which will continue to be deemed to be the original. But this will already be a complete delusion.
Authoritarianism may return
With the growing concern and threats to national security, governments will sooner or later come to incredibly draconian measures that, on the one hand, will really increase the level of national security, but on the other, they will actually deprive us of our freedom. Over time, many freedoms and civil rights that we now take for granted (the right to privacy, the right to travel freely around the home country, the right to gather and express one's own opinion, the right to freedom of speech, and so on) will sink into oblivion.
At the same time, the population, due to the constantly increasing number of terrorist acts, violence and many other factors, will itself increasingly strive to elect leaders who are capable and, more importantly, ready to deal with all external and internal potential threats without compromise, even if this puts them at risk. many democratic values.
Hitler knew how to play on human fears
It is the threats to national security that will lead to such changes, and there have already been such precedents in history. Following the September 11 attacks and subsequent terrorist attacks with the mailing of letters with anthrax powder, the US government signed the State Security Act. This document has been much criticized for its too harsh and radical measures to solve problems, but it is he who is the perfect example of what can happen when a nation feels a threat to its security. Now imagine what could happen if a similar "9/11" incident occurs, but with hundreds of thousands or even millions of victims.
Nuclear and biological weapons are the two main possible sources of such events. And the likelihood that small radical groups or even individuals can take possession of these weapons can only increase the desire of governments and citizens to choose more radical ways to solve these problems, even taking into account the loss of some freedoms.
Private life will be a relic of the past
We are rapidly approaching an era of ubiquitous surveillance, a time when virtually every aspect of our lives will be watched from above. The privacy as we know it will cease to exist and will be replaced by the eyes and ears of "Big Brother".
Governments of countries, fearing internal and external threats, will more and more actively resort to cheap, but high-tech and effective measures and technologies to track their citizens. Commercial corporations, fueled by the desire to know everything and everything about their customers, will also not be able to resist this temptation. The citizens of this surveillance society will have no choice but to accept the fact that every detail of their lives will now be recorded.
"Big Brother" follows John Hurt in 1984
The mechanisms for monitoring society are already beginning to actively penetrate into our lives. Street cameras, computers, smartphones, tablets - all these are tools that can monitor our daily life.
Going further, government agencies and law enforcement are likely to sooner or later introduce more compact and inconspicuous surveillance devices, including so-called "smart dust" - tiny self-organizing sensors capable of tracking almost everything at once. These tiny particles (essentially nanorobots) will cover the entire Earth and function as a single network, being the eyes and ears of the planet.
Robots will find ways to manipulate us with ease
Until the moment when artificial intelligence can realize itself, individuals and corporations will be engaged in programming it. And we will be greatly mistaken if we assume that machines think on their own, which, in turn, will open the way to various kinds of manipulations and beliefs. This is how futurist and science fiction writer David Brin sees the near future. According to him, this will lead to the emergence of cheating robots.
“Empathy is simultaneously one of the most important gifts and curses and weaknesses that a person is endowed with,” says Breen.
“For many millennia, man has developed and improved methods and skills for determining lies, but no liar has had as many opportunities to train his skills as robots will have. And after all, all the necessary information base (the ability to imitate voices and facial expressions, a special set of words, and so on) for this we ourselves will lay in them, even without realizing it. Their ability to manipulate us will increase so much that only true sociopaths will be able to resist, although after a while they will find their own approach.
The consequences of climate change will be irreversible
Last year, world leaders signed an agreement to curtail the production and use of sources that cause global warming. The aspiration is laudable, but we seem to have missed the critical point. The effects of global warming will be felt for hundreds, perhaps thousands of years to come. Since we have already entered the sixth mass extinction period (this is when the rate of extinction of species is much faster than usual), we risk losing important ecosystems and gradually reducing the diversity of life on Earth.
Climate models show that even if carbon dioxide levels suddenly begin to decline, the level of greenhouse gases in the Earth's atmosphere will continue to heat our planet for at least several more centuries. Our oceans will slowly release stored carbon dioxide, and our atmosphere will not return to pre-industrial levels for several centuries. A recent assessment by an international group of experts in the field of climate change suggests that "most of the climate change is already irreversible on a human time scale."
A scene from the movie "Mad Max: Fury Road"
Dawn Stover, science columnist for The Bulletin writes:
“The melting of snow and ice will expose parts of the Earth that will absorb more solar radiation, accelerating global warming and shrinking ice sheets. Scientists agree that the West Antarctic ice sheet has already shrunk to an unprecedented size. As a result, there will soon be serious disturbances in ocean currents and heat transfer. The acidification of the oceans will continue with unknown consequences for marine life. The melting of the eternal ice and the rising temperature of the ocean floor will release methane and greenhouse gases. Severe droughts will occur over the past 1000 years, accompanied by forest fires and additional carbon emissions. Those species that cannot quickly adapt to changing conditions will die out. Coastal areas will become uninhabitable, which,in turn, will cause a very severe humanitarian crisis."
Geoengineering of the planet will be the only way to somehow reduce the consequences, but this, in turn, will also create its own difficulties.
The era of antibiotics will come to an end
There has been a serious increase in diseases that are becoming refractory to antibiotics. Over time, this can develop into a post-antibiotic era, a time when even the most common infections will threaten our lives.
Major medical changes will cause antimicrobial-resistant bacteria. Transplantation will become an incredibly difficult, if not impossible, process. Even such simple operations as removing appendicitis will be very life-threatening. Pneumonia, as well as other age-related diseases, including cancer, will begin to pick up elderly people.
How bad will it get? A recent report by the UK's Faculty and Institute of Actuaries indicates that a new era of antimicrobial-resistant diseases will kill up to 10 million people annually by 2050. Therefore, this report often includes such concepts as “antimicrobial apocalypse”.
Fortunately, we will not be completely devoid of solutions to this problem. At the moment, scientists are hunting for as yet, perhaps, undiscovered antibacterial compounds. In addition, work is underway to create viruses and vaccines to fight bacteria. After all, by then we may have already learned how to create artificial microorganisms that will hunt and destroy problem bacteria and viruses.
Killer robots will become commonplace
And now we got to the scenario of the future from "Terminator", when fully automated militarized systems will operate everywhere, which without any hesitation will hunt for armed human units.
These systems, known as LAWS (Lethal Autonomous Weapons, "Lethal Autonomous Weapons"), have no doubt, are already in development, and it is only a matter of time until they destroy existing weapons, including nuclear weapons. These robotic killing machines are created with only one purpose - to reduce human losses and make wars more humane, but experts fear that these futuristic executioners may sooner or later get out of control and people themselves will become the objects of their hunt.
Terminator: Savior Come
Of course, these machines will be equipped with safety mechanisms and "moral principles", but Wendell Wallach of the Interdisciplinary Center for Bioethics at Yale University believes that it will be very difficult to verify this, and therefore various software errors will be possible that will lead to completely unexpected behavior …
“The efficiency and cost will make LAWS attractive to both developed countries and nongovernmental organizations,” Wallach says.
"And although countries like the United States say that these systems will be under strict human control, the country itself is interested, in particular, in underwater LAWS systems, since it will be very difficult to establish communication with them and take over control."
“We can witness the start of an autonomous nuclear war even before we realize it,” Wallach continues.
"This is just one of hundreds of possible scenarios involving the use of semi-intelligent military systems that could increase the security risk to humanity long before we can understand what superintelligence is."
We will lose all our companions
Several members of the scientific community are concerned about the likelihood of partial or even complete loss of control over the artificial satellites of our planet, which could be caused by the Kessler effect (which is very clearly shown in the movie "Gravity") or a giant solar geomagnetic storm, or as a result of space war.
Without satellites, we will lose the ability to communicate. GPS systems, as well as the equipment based on them, will become completely useless pieces of garbage. Cosmic synchronization will become irrelevant, affecting many areas, from financial exchanges to energy grids.
Shot from the movie "Gravity"
It is necessary to take into account such a risk of developing events in the future and be prepared for this. To begin with, we need to improve the reliability of our infrastructure and, perhaps, even reduce our dependence on these very satellites, which has put us in a very dangerous position. In addition, one should seriously think about orbital ecology. From year to year, low-earth orbit and geostationary orbit become more and more cluttered by our satellites and various space debris. If we don't start cleaning up all this mess, we may soon lose access to space altogether.
We will never make contact with aliens
We are all accustomed to believe that during the next week, or rather a millennium, we will make contact with alien civilizations. The fact is that, most likely, this will never happen. And all because in fact, no one sends us any signals and does not move from one star to another in search of new places for conquest.
The continued Great Silence is no coincidence. Our galaxy is very ancient, so by this time we should have already made contact with extraterrestrial intelligence, if there was one here. If you think that the search for aliens is done only in the framework of such large projects as SETI, then you are deeply mistaken. In fact, the entire Earth is covered with antennas and satellite devices directed to the far corners of our space. And yet, all we hear is complete silence.
The fact that we have not yet encountered any aliens may be a serious indicator of our future. Perhaps there is some kind of technological barrier, which is not yet possible to overcome. Perhaps this barrier is superintelligence or paramilitary nanotechnology. Perhaps the aliens are just paranoid and xenophobes, trying with all their might not to show their existence in case of hostile neighbors. Another explanation could be that intelligent life chose the path of exploring the endless realities of cyberspace instead of cold and dead space. Or perhaps we are actually alone in this endless space.
NIKOLAY KHIZHNYAK