Traditionally, at the end of the year, we hold a championship of the prophets. We compare the forecasts given by astrologers, politicians, psychics and economists for 2015 with what actually happened.
Prophet 1
Who: Pavel Globa. Astrologer. One of the champions of last year's divination competition. Then he predicted a sharp drop in oil prices in 2014 and the collapse of Ukraine into three parts.
Pavel Globa, ph oto: Mikhail FROLOV / kp.ru
What he predicted: Rejected specific predictions, now he encrypts his prophecies, like Nostradamus - into poems that are extremely incomprehensible in content. He stated that the acute phase of the crisis will last another 2-3 years. In general, the era of stagnation will last until December 21, 2020, when Jupiter and Saturn will unite in the sign of Aquarius and Russia will receive a new impetus for development. He also said that the numerous tribe of office plankton and creative managers will disappear from the face of the earth within 5-6 years.
What it really is: the predicted events have not yet happened.
Promotional video:
Forecast quality: vague.
Prophet 2
Who: Mikhail Delyagin, economist, director of the Institute for Globalization Problems. A year ago he shared first place with Pavel Globa.
Mikhail Delyagin, ph oto: Mikhail FROLOV / kp.ru
What he predicted: On January 12, Radio KP gave a forecast regarding the ruble exchange rate at the end of 2015: “I think that if there is an average of 69 rubles per dollar at the end of the year, it will be good news.” May 25 predicted a weakening of the ruble in late autumn this year, as "this is the only way to spur the economy." He advised the readers of "KP" to convert the ruble stash in foreign currency.
What it really is: I practically guessed the ruble / dollar exchange rate. On December 24, 2015, 1 dollar was worth 70.43 (forecasts of other economists in the note under the heading "BTW"). If the readers of "KP" followed Delyagin's advice and converted their savings into foreign currency, then they earned about 20 rubles from the difference in exchange rates from each dollar (on May 25, the dollar was worth 49.7 rubles).
Forecast quality: high.
Prophet 3
Who: Julia Wang, winner of the 15th Battle of Psychics Show.
Julia Wang, f oto: Personal page of the hero of the publication in the social network
What she predicted: The beginning of the world war due to the conflict between Russia and Ukraine. America will come to the aid of Independent, other countries will be involved in hostilities, and nuclear weapons will be used in 2015. Russia will be on the verge of disintegration, and European scientists will create a cure for cancer. Zhanna Friske will delight fans with a new song.
What it really is: This year, large-scale hostilities really unfolded, in which several dozen countries of the world take part. But Ukraine has nothing to do with it. A coalition in which Russia and the United States, despite their differences, are on the same side, is fighting on the territory of Iraq and Syria against ISIS (a terrorist organization banned on the territory of the Russian Federation - ed.) A cure for cancer has not yet been created. And Zhanna Friske, unfortunately, is not with us.
Forecast quality: extremely low.
Prophet 4
Who: Fedor Lukyanov, political scientist, editor-in-chief of the Russia in Global Affairs magazine.
Fedor Lukyanov, ph oto: Mikhail FROLOV / kp.ru
What he predicted: The fate of the DPR and LPR will remain in limbo. There will be no new sanctions against Russia. Negotiations on Iran's nuclear program are likely to fail due to Obama's weakness.
As a matter of fact: There is really no progress in Ukraine. In December, the US Treasury expanded the sanctions list to include 12 more people and 22 organizations from Russia and Ukraine. Our country is preparing a response. Iran has given up its attempts to create nuclear weapons. In response, sanctions were lifted from Tehran and prices on the oil market collapsed, in anticipation of the flow of Iranian hydrocarbons.
Forecast quality: medium.
BTW
Economists could not guess either the ruble exchange rate or the oil price
At the beginning of 2015, the largest expert institutions gave their forecasts for the simplest indicators of the economy. Let's see what they did?
* dollars per barrel
** as of December 24, 2015
*** final figures have not yet been calculated
