Already now, in the 2020s, humanity will face problems, three of which pose a real threat to its existence, futurist Yuval Noah Harari is sure. He shared his predictions at the forum in Davos.
Speaking at the World Economic Forum in January 2020, Israeli historian, futurist, and professor at the Hebrew University of Jerusalem Yuval Noah Harari outlined three challenges that threaten humanity as a species:
- nuclear war;
- ecological crisis;
- destructive power of technology.
If the first two are more or less familiar and understandable to us, then the potential consequences of the latter we have yet to realize, said Harari. Technology, in addition to its obvious benefits, carries a lot of risks. In his predictions, the futurist writer focused on them, identifying five potential problems.
1. "Useless" people
Automation will soon destroy millions of jobs. Of course, new professions will come in their place, but it is not yet clear whether people will be able to quickly master the necessary skills. Let's say you are 50 years old and have just lost your job due to drones. Now there is an opportunity to become a software developer or yoga teacher for engineers - but can a fifty-year-old truck driver be able to change his lane and prove himself as such a specialist? And we will have to retrain not just once or twice, but again and again throughout our lives.
If in the past a person had to fight against exploitation, then in the 21st century a really large-scale struggle will be waged against futility. And it will be much worse to be out of work than to be exploited. Those who fail in this struggle will become part of a kind of "useless class" in terms of the economic and political system. This, in turn, will contribute to the growth of the gap between people who have not found themselves in the new world and the powerful elite.
Promotional video:
2. Inequality between countries
We are already in the midst of an “arms race” in everything related to artificial intelligence (AI). Now China and the United States are in the lead, leaving many other countries far behind. If we do not distribute the opportunities and results that AI gives us among all people, huge wealth will be concentrated in only a few high-tech centers, while other states will either go bankrupt or become exploited digital colonies. In this case, we are talking about a fairly primitive AI, which, nevertheless, is enough to upset the global balance.
Imagine what would happen to emerging economies if textiles or cars were cheaper to produce in California than in Mexico? And what will happen if in 20 years someone in San Francisco or Beijing knows all the personal information about every politician, judge and journalist in your country? Will the country remain independent or become a digital colony? When you have enough data, you don't need to send soldiers to control the state.
3. Digital dictatorship
Uneven control over data can lead to digital dictatorships. This hazard can be formulated as an equation:
Where B is biological knowledge, C is computing, D is data, and AHH is the ability to "hack" people.
If you have all the variables on the left side of the formula on hand, you can hack into the body, brain and mind of every person, and also understand him better than himself. You will be able to find out his personality type, political views, weaknesses, the most secret fears and hopes. A system that understands us better than ourselves can predict our feelings and decisions, manipulate them, and ultimately make decisions for us.
Of course, the ability to "hack" a person can be used for good - for example, to improve the health care system. But if such power falls into the wrong hands, the result will be the worst totalitarian regime in human history.
Imagine the notional DPRK in 20 years, where every resident will have to constantly wear a biometric bracelet that monitors blood pressure, heart rate and brain activity. And now you are listening to the speech of the great leader on the radio, and the special services already know how you really feel. You can clap your hands and smile as much as you want, but if they find out that you are really angry, tomorrow you will already be in the Gulag.
4. At the mercy of algorithms
As humans increasingly empower AI to make decisions for us, power will shift from humans to algorithms. And this is already happening.
Billions of people today trust the algorithms of Facebook, Google, Netflix, Amazon, and Alibaba for what to read, watch, buy, and what to believe. Soon, these algorithms will tell us where to work and who to marry, and companies - whether to hire us and whether to give us credit. In this connection, the question arises: what is then the meaning of human existence, if most decisions are made by computers? People can simply lose control of their lives.
5. Destruction of humanity
Technology can destroy not only economics, politics and philosophy of life, but also our biological structure.
Over the coming decades, AI and biotechnology will give us incredible abilities, including the artificial creation of humans and completely new life forms. Governments, corporations and the military can use these opportunities to improve human skills such as intelligence and discipline, while neglecting other skills that are not so necessary for their purposes and forming a layer of people who are not capable of compassion, sense of beauty and spiritual experiences.
Together for one
So what must be understood in order to prevent such a development of events? The fact that global problems require a global solution, cooperation. At the same time, there is actually no contradiction between nationalism and globalism, emphasizes Harari.
Nationalism is not about hating strangers, but about loving your own. In the 21st century, in order to ensure the safety and future of compatriots, it is necessary to cooperate with representatives of other countries for the common good. Now globalism does not mean the creation of a global government, the rejection of national traditions or migration, but a commitment to global tasks that do not deny the uniqueness of each nation, but only regulate relations between peoples. And the scientist calls the FIFA World Cup a good example of such a model.
On the one hand, the World Championship is a competition, but at the same time, it is an amazing example of global harmony, where teams agree on the same rules of the game. If you like the World Cup, you are already a globalist.
We now live in a world in which fewer people die in war than from suicide, and gunpowder is much less dangerous than sugar. We are so used to this situation that we take it for granted. And instead of strengthening the fragile world order, many countries neglect it and even deliberately undermine it. The global order is now like a house where tenants are not renovating anything. It may last for a few more years, but if we continue like this, it will collapse and the world will once again find itself in the jungle of an omnipresent war, Harari warns.
All this, of course, is not a verdict, but only development scenarios. Any processes can be changed, and technologies can be used for good. We can still influence what the future world will look like, and this is where international cooperation is needed. Because in a situation with the aforementioned global threats, it doesn't really matter who wins - humanity will be the loser.
Author: Anastasia Andreeva