Iceland is known for its many volcanoes, which erupt in a variety of styles. Some volcanoes erupt a little lava, others have much more, but there are those that are capable of covering the whole of Europe with ash.
And now there is a message from Iceland Monitor that four volcanoes in the country are showing signs of readiness to erupt. Beyond this, however, very little information exists.
The volcanoes in question are Katla, Hekla, Baurdarbunga and Grimsvotn. In the absence of sufficient data, a small study was conducted.
Katla
What about Katla Volcano? It is quite large and does show signs of recent activity, with tremors recorded at 4.6 m. These earthquakes may be signs that magma is rising through the crust, damaging it, but so far there is no substantial evidence. …
Katla sometimes "lets off steam" with small lava flows, but there have been no major eruptions for several decades. The average frequency of some significant and potentially dangerous eruptions is once every 50 years. The last notable event happened back in 2011, when the volcano ejected impressive lava flows, but even then they were not enough to break through the Mirdalsjokull glacier on its surface.
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But if the eruption does occur, a huge amount of ash will be thrown into the air - about the same as in 2010 during the eruption of Eyjafjallajökull, and the airspace of Northern Europe will have to be closed immediately. But, according to a recent study, such an epic eruption occurs only once every 44 years, so we probably have some time before it happens again.
It is worth noting, however, that the 2011 eruption caused a flash flood caused by partial melting of glaciers. It was powerful enough to sweep away the main bridge, although luckily there were no fatalities.
Gate to Hell
Let's also take a look at the Hekla volcano, which in local mythology is also affectionately called "the gate to hell". Recent history shows that its recurrent interval is 10 years. It last erupted in 2000, which means that Hekla is 7 years late, but in volcanology this is within the margin of error.
If Hekla erupts in the near future, it will most likely emit a noticeable plume of ash, but it will not reach 2010 levels. In fact, everyone is waiting for this to happen, since the long delay in the eruption means that the magma chamber fills up more and more every day.
If Hekla sleeps for several more decades, the subsequent eruption will be very violent. It may resemble one of the volcanic eruptions in the past that were truly catastrophic and explosive.
Baurdarbunga
Baurdarbunga volcano seems to be quite active lately. In 2014-2015, it produced impressive lava flows. But the danger lies in the fact that this volcano is hiding under a glacier and a particularly voluminous lava flow can cause dangerous flooding.
Its seismic activity has been gaining momentum for much of the past decade, and it is possible, though unlikely, that there could be a repeat of its 8,600-year-old eruption when it produced the world's largest lava flow in 10,000 years.
Grimsvotn
But there is also Grimsvotn, which is located near Baurdarbung and is most likely fed from the same magma source.
It last erupted back in 2011, producing an ash cloud that led to a repeat of the events of the summer of 2010, albeit on a smaller scale. As with the Baurdarbunga volcano, the seismic activity of Grimsvotn is steadily increasing, so that we can see another jet of ash erupting from under the glacier over the next decade or so.
It is likely that one of these volcanoes will erupt in one way or another in the next few years. But, most likely, this eruption will be insignificant and will not lead to disastrous consequences. Although, of course, Iceland's volcanoes can be unpredictable, so we should be prepared for danger.
Anna Pismenna