Somehow we got into a conversation with a comrade about how much Stalin was to blame for the fact that this is how the Great Patriotic War began. They tell me that he did not take into account the report of the scouts, did not saturate the defense before the start of the war. And I answer, well, they probably didn’t want to give the Nazis a reason and didn’t provoke them to an even earlier attack. They say they were playing for time in the hope of one thing or the other. Actually, like many countries in Europe. Any strengthening of the border territories would certainly have led to the fact that Nazi Germany would have attacked earlier, there were no fools either.
However, this option surfaced in the discussion. Since there were accurate reports of scouts, repeatedly confirmed, why not launch a preemptive strike and attack the German troops first?
Consider two basic options that could theoretically take place in the case of the decision to "hit first".
First option
By May 1941, the Soviet leadership had concentrated on its western border 2.2 million soldiers, over 37,000 guns and mortars, 6,500 tanks and more than 8,000 tanks and armored vehicles. What would happen if all this force invaded Eastern and South-Eastern Europe and moved to Berlin first.
With the most optimal outcome of events, Soviet troops could theoretically surround the Germans and defeat them. Europe is not Russia, dear beautiful ones, Berlin is just a stone's throw away. In the event of a series of high-profile defeats, the Allies would have turned away from Germany very quickly and sided with the USSR.
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France at that time was virtually devoid of political subjectivity, Great Britain sat on its island and did not have a strong enough ground army to quickly occupy "denazified" Western Europe. The United States had not yet become a superpower at all. And then the rich imagination of some authors paints a blissful picture at all: "A socialist camp created within the Old World would control most of the Earth's resources."
Second option
Unfortunately, 1941 and 1942 showed that the Wehrmacht surpassed the Red Army of those years in terms of training and efficiency in the execution of its plans. Even if the Soviet troops were the first to cross the border and inflict a series of defeats, using the effect of surprise, the German command would quickly regroup its forces and, using the advantage in speed and maneuverability, began to rapidly encircle Red Army units with their subsequent inevitable defeat already on their territory.
Soviet soldiers would have ended up in the cauldrons and perished under enemy flank and rear attacks. And from such a trap they would no longer have any chance to get out. Defeat on enemy territory would have been more terrible and crushing than what happened in reality.
Plus, one must understand that active preparation for the offensive would probably not have remained a secret from the Germans (there were also enough scouts) and they would not have been idle either.
Which of the options for the end of the "first strike" do you think is the most likely?
P. S. By the way, there is such an opinion. If Stalin had attacked Germany, the United States would have sent Lend-Lease to Germany, not to the USSR. And Great Britain would quickly reconcile with Hitler and support Germany at sea.
This is evidenced by the words of Harry Truman, which he made a few days after the attack of Nazi Germany on the Soviet Union: “If we see that Germany is winning the war, we should help Russia, if there is Russia, we should help Germany, and let them as much as possible kill each other, although I do not want to see Hitler in the victors under any circumstances. None of them keep the promised word …"
Only 15-20 years before that for Europe and America, the USSR was a country that officially wants to fan the fire of the world revolution and hang all the bourgeois in these countries on the lanterns. By 1940, through the efforts of our government, attitudes towards us became less negative, but they did not feel much love for us. Germany started the war and we became victims of a treacherous attack for the whole world. In a different scenario, the USSR would have fought practically with the whole world on several fronts. By the way, the USSR had an experience of trying with a mighty blow of superior forces to quickly overturn the enemy - the winter war.