In Glasgow, Scotland, the average January temperature is +3.5 degrees Celsius. In Moscow, located at the same latitude, the temperature is significantly lower - -9.5 degrees. And all because the port city is heated by a natural "battery" - the Gulf Stream. However, the Atlantic warmth sometimes reaches the European part of Russia - it is to it that we owe the periodic slush in winter.
But recently, scientists are increasingly sounding the alarm - due to global warming, the current is becoming slower and cooler, and soon it may cool down altogether and stop moving. What can we expect if this happens?
Gulf Stream, don't hit the brakes
The Gulf Stream is a warm current in the Atlantic Ocean, and in a broader sense, a whole system of interconnected currents starting from the coast of Florida and ending in the Barents Sea and the Arctic Ocean. Its scale can hardly be compared with anything, since the Gulf Stream carries more water than all the rivers of the Earth taken together.
The average temperature of the flow ranges from +10 to +12 degrees Celsius, and on the surface of the water this indicator can reach + 25 … + 26 degrees. The current speed is about 6.4 km / h, and at the coast of the United States it sometimes reaches 9 km / h.
However, researchers increasingly notice that the speed of the Gulf Stream is gradually decreasing. So, in April 2018, scientists from University College London sounded the alarm. According to them, the current speed has decreased by 15 percent since 1850, which is supposedly the most significant slowdown in the last one and a half thousand years.
The conclusions of the British were partly confirmed by the German meteorologist Dominique Jung, who recorded a two-fold decrease in the current speed off the coast of the United States compared to 2012. However, his fellow meteorologists are not yet inclined to worry too much: the Gulf Stream is a gigantic-scale water flow, and in some of its sections the speed could really have dropped, but with a different indicator - temperature - the current is still fine.
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Global warming threatens cold weather
The gradual slowdown of the Gulf Stream, according to experts, is associated with the melting of glaciers, which, in turn, is caused by global warming. To understand the connection, you just need to understand the "mechanism" of the flow.
Under normal conditions, warm water, reaching Greenland, cools. Because of this, it becomes denser and heavier and goes deeper, forming a reverse countercurrent to the tropics. But due to the melting of glaciers, the water in the ocean becomes fresher, and therefore less dense. Because of this, the water in the current begins to sink much earlier than the "destination", as a result of which Europe receives less heat.
The most tangible consequences of this affect the UK, the countries of Scandinavia and the Atlantic coast of the United States - they will suffer first of all if the Gulf Stream stops or cools down. This process can also have an impact on Russia, although, of course, to a lesser extent.
Polar frosts in European Russia
In April 2000, a group of Russian scientists led by Deputy Director of the Institute of Cell Biophysics Valery Karnaukhov, commissioned by the Ministry of Emergencies, calculated a scenario according to which events would develop for our country if something happened to the Gulf Stream.
According to their calculations, after the warm water stops flowing into the Arctic, the northern coast will soon freeze over. Large rivers will abut against the formed "dam": Yenisei, Lena, Ob and others. This will lead to the fact that ice jams on them will become more powerful, and spills - wider.
Moreover, the water, not finding an outlet to the ocean, will flood the lowlands along the rivers. As a result, according to scientists, a whole "sea" up to 130 meters deep can form in Siberia. If the water manages to cross the Ural Mountains along the Turgai Hollow, the level of the new reservoir will drop to 90 meters, but its area will expand to the European part of the country.
Further forecast is disappointing: having broken through to Europe, the water will reach the Don, making it the most full-flowing river in the world. The Azov Sea will overflow its shores, and the Crimean Peninsula and Krasnodar Territory will be under the threat of flooding.
However, this pessimism is not shared by all Russian scientists. But practically everyone agrees that when the Gulf Stream stops and gets cold, two things cannot be avoided: lower average temperatures and glaciation of the southwestern part of the Barents Sea. And if you can somehow get used to the first circumstance - after all, with the current level of technology, mankind is quite successful in fighting the cold - then the second threatens with significant problems.
The Barents Sea today plays a key role both economically and militarily. Large ports are located on its coast, important trade routes pass along it. Many species of fish are found here, and the most explored area of the Russian shelf in terms of hydrocarbon reserves is also located here. If the sea freezes over, Russia may be missing out on a significant amount of resources. Moreover, the defense strategy will also have to be revised: to shift the emphasis from naval forces to land forces, and to actively develop the northern airfields.
At the same time, our country will in any case have its own trump card - Russia has the only icebreaker fleet in the world, which will certainly allow to fully ensure its national interests. And at the same time, it will push other countries of the region to more active cooperation - after all, if their ships need to navigate the ice all year round, one way or another they will have to be friends with Russia.
Ivan Roschepiy