Well, happy Science Day, fellow citizens. Let's move our glasses and drink something tasty and healthy for scientific and technological progress. And the Russian writer, author of fairy tales, fantastic, fantasy and detective stories Abutrab Aliverdiyev tells about what he is preparing for us. Why he? Well, if only because his main specialty is physics and extreme states of matter. He is a Doctor of Physical and Mathematical Sciences, a member of the European Physical Society, one of the few Russian participants in international projects related to extreme states of matter and controlled thermonuclear fusion.
- In order to assess the near-term perspective, let's look back. How was life today imagined thirty years ago? A hundred years ago? What and when changed rapidly? What was noticed by science fiction writers? Where did they come up with too much? What have you missed?
How and what?
- One assumption. As far as possible, we will distance ourselves from the past and potential political upheavals: world and civil wars, revolutions and coups, and so on. Moreover, scientific and technological progress as such was still the main driving force behind all changes.
For the "reference points" we take the beginning - the middle of the nineties of the XIX century, the middle of the twenties of the same XX and the middle of the eighties of the XX century. This is a little over thirty years ago. I remember this time well. Perhaps I was then as old as some of the readers are now.
So. Point one. Wells writes his first science fiction novels, including the very first, The Time Machine. The inventions predicted earlier by Jules Verne seem to be about to come true. But mostly they don't. Cars, telephones, airplanes, movies appear …
Now fast forward to the mid-twenties. Have you all moved? Let's continue
- Yes. Twenties twenties. If the Benz car exhibited at the World Exhibition in Paris in 1889 is still only an expensive toy and most even "advanced" citizens do not feel the imminent transport revolution, then in the twenties - the car is no longer a luxury, but a means of transportation. And thinking about how to avoid the cities of the future from drowning in horse dung seem ridiculous.
Promotional video:
For the first time demonstrated in 1895, cinematography is already part of life, its improvement and growth of influence is expected by everyone. It's the same with the radio and telephone as such. Sound reproducing devices are still mechanical (gramophones, gramophones), but electrical devices are already being developed. News, however, is still mostly drawn from newspapers. But they are still in use today.
Hello to our readers. Well, let's talk about our youth …
- Now let's fly to the eighties of the twentieth century. Remember the films of that time. At first glance, with the exception of mobile communications and the Internet, there are almost no differences from our time. In almost everything. This is, of course, in large and medium-sized cities in developed countries.
But this is at first glance. There is a very important difference: a significant part of the autochthonous population of developed (I emphasize, developed) countries is engaged in commodity production. Accordingly, the lion's share of goods "for whites" is produced in "white" countries. Plus, there are much fewer "come in large numbers". Although already "blacks sell chestnuts near Concorde Square."
This is just a quote, not a manifestation of xenophobia, I hasten to clarify …
- Of course … Oleg Mityaev. And here we come to a very important point, which is usually not discussed. The population of any country in the twentieth century, according to my observations, is quite clearly divided into at least two factions: a real soil faction (continuing to live as under Tsar Pea) and a modern, progressive one. In the so-called developing countries, the first faction is the overwhelming majority, while the second is noticeable only in the central quarters of Europeanized cities. Conversely, in the developed countries in the twentieth century, the first faction is rapidly declining.
- As Terry Pratchett wrote, “this is history, it belongs in the past”. Let's go to the forecasts …
- So, thirty years ahead. Cars - while gasoline-hybrid cars prevail. New forms of energy have not yet been mastered. So, renewable sources, on the one hand, are increasingly prevailing, and on the other, fast neutron nuclear power plants are struggling to cope with the increased needs. In general, there is no talk of completely abandoning gasoline. Well, maybe in the distant future. Modern forms still dominate or, in any case, are encountered quite often. But the " filling " is very different. For example, the absence of a computer “ autopilot ” that analyzes video streams from several cameras and network navigators is practically unacceptable. But driving is no more difficult than a children's electric car.
The question of prohibiting the use of vehicles not included in a single computer transport network with possible forced automatic control begins to be discussed. But this is still in the project. Fully automatic driverless carriages are not yet prevalent but are quite common. About how just a car in the twenties.
Washing machines look pretty much the same as they do now. Erase is better, but not much. Having a washing machine in an apartment or a shared laundry room in the basement of an apartment building is a matter of local tradition. Like today. Do not have a dishwasher at home and several robotic vacuum cleaners, floor polishers, etc. - nonsense.
Augmented reality glasses are the norm. Most take them off except for sleep, constantly using the prompts of a pocket computer-smartphone. Even today, such devices are less common than they could, primarily due to artificial limitations. But with the growth in the number of fixed webcams and video recorders, I think legislative barriers will be broken much earlier. Yes, all these devices are more perfect and better than today's ones, but they are quite “tangible”. Our normal contemporary will figure it out in a few days.
A fixed movement of the pupil acts as a "mouse-joystick", "input press" is carried out in several ways - where by voice, where - by an additional "manual" remote control. A special eye training is possible (winking, eyelid tension), but this is less likely: many will not master it or will not want to master it. But speech recognition with translation into text and the commands executed is already complete. As well as the reverse "synthesis" of speech. Cartoons are also much better quality.
Automatic translators, built into any smart, already work no worse than the average "human" translator. And thanks to constant prompts, your own learning of foreign languages is faster. This is from those who want to learn. For others, the opposite is true.
Long-range aircraft are better, but about the same. So are the ferry ships and trains (the ones that are modern). The short-range aviation is being replenished with light electric aircraft and quadcopters.
Medicine is better. Prosthetics is an order of magnitude better. Active prostheses controlled by nerve impulses read from the stump are the norm. But artificial vision is more likely not here than yes. I don’t think we’ll make it in 30 years. As well as the complete fusion of man and machine. It's still fantastic. But DNA analysis, at least in developed countries, is mandatory almost immediately after birth.
And everyone has chips in their heads. With "the number of the beast."
- Total chipping is possible, but not necessary. But the scanning of fingerprints and irises, I think, is already total. As well as highly desirable " is the constant wearing of at least a " smart watch " as an identifier. But, as I said, most people constantly wear augmented reality glasses and smart in their pockets.
There are many robots everywhere. Most different. Fully humanoid androids are still expensive, but they are not surprising either. Just thirty years from now, I would expect the first peak of a real moral crisis, a human being a robot. First of all, in connection with these very " adult " relationship-applications. Biologically, a person remains the same, all this is easy to predict. In some places, it is even possible to ban the production of android robotic dolls. But somewhere the moral will change. I can’t judge whether this is good or bad. Just stating.
But the question of recognizing the presence of artificial intelligence (not to be confused with shells and mechanisms, but this is a topic for a separate conversation), and so, the question of recognizing the presence of artificial intelligence " soul " and " rights " in thirty years is not yet worth it. That is, it was put at least by the inventor of the word " robot " Karl Czapek, but even today, and, most likely, thirty years later, it sounds like " is there life on Mars " in the famous comedy.
That is, you can not be afraid of the uprising of machines?
- Not yet. But big and small failures or, rather, dark deeds disguised as failures - yes. But I emphasize, the key word here is " bye."
Nevertheless, we can talk a little more about anthropomorphic robots. Since the mechanical dolls of the eighteenth century, human-indistinguishable helpers and servants have loomed in fairy tales and dreams. With pure mechanics, of course, nothing came of it and could not. Advances in electronics and, as a consequence, in applied cybernetics have opened up new perspectives. In the eighties of the last century, everything was seen quite clearly, but with an amendment that is far from today. Like a helicopter or a submarine in Jules Verne's novels.
But today we already have fully working prototypes. Like cars in the twenties of the twentieth century. The process has already begun. But anthropomorphic robots are not yet the main thing that changed life in the 21st century. While it is a personal computer and the Internet.
What else? Where will we live, for example?
- Just thirty years later, the line between hotels, rented and private housing begins to blur. More and more people in civilized countries prefer to live in close proximity to work. Or work "remotely". And it finds support. Whole city houses are gaining relevance, where cars are not needed at all, and all movements are made by a system of elevators and horizontal automatic cabins, as well as a system of escalators and travelators. But thirty years later, in this regard, only the beginning of the path.
All sorts of mobile banks and wallets are being merged. For many small payments, an iris scan is sufficient. Although more often, it is likely that the constantly worn smart or its " application " in the form of a lightweight, waterproof and almost never removable wristband will be used. We already see the beginning.
Analogue television is in the past, while digital television has completely merged with the general Internet system. Social networks are highly developed and play a primary role. Nevertheless, this chaos is still manageable. The very issue of control and counteraction to it is more discussed than today.
Clothing. I think there are no major changes here. That is, as before, the mod will go through several turns. But compare clothes today and in the eighties. No big differences are expected.
On the moon, most likely, the station is just starting to operate. But there is still a long way to master it.
Antigravity, teleportation?
- No, even after thirty years. As well as a real working time machine. Of course I would like to. But let's be realistic.
And cold fusion? Will you overcome?
- It's more likely no than yes. That is, I do not exclude a breakthrough in this matter. But such breakthroughs, in principle, can neither be predicted nor somehow organized. Until then, it will be considered impracticable in principle. But in controlled "hot" thermonuclear fusion (I think, primarily with magnetic confinement), we expect some progress. But also at the level “ maybe in thirty years it will be possible to talk about the first power plant ”.
Probably enough about thirty years ahead. Swinging for a hundred years?
- It's harder to predict here. There may be something that will radically change the whole situation. And I, like others, do not know about it. And for thirty years, the forecast was made with an average luck scenario, which is impossible with a bad political confluence. In a hundred years it is even more important. I do not think that the intellect of a simple individual will rise strongly relative to the same from today, either in thirty or in a hundred years.
Although, in principle, in a hundred years it is already possible (albeit unlikely) to achieve a complete fusion of machine and man, which will make a man fundamentally different. This will completely change the motivational mechanisms, and our today's reasoning will resemble the problem of horse dung by the middle of the twentieth century in the minds of the thinkers of the nineteenth century.
As for the rest, carts with an internal combustion engine inside cities are not even remembered. People mainly live in artificial climate houses. Thermonuclear fusion has been mastered in one way or another. The moon is starting to settle. Other planets of the solar system are in question.
Photo from the personal archive of Abutrab Aliverdiev.
BIOGRAPHY
Abutrab Aliverdiev, 47 years old. Physicist and lyricist in one bottle.
Author of over 100 scientific publications, laureate of the medal of the Russian Academy of Sciences with the prize for young scientists (2001) and the prize of the European Academy for young scientists (2002). Member of the European Physical Society. He personally presented reports at more than fifty conferences, schools, symposia and seminars in Russia, Belarus, Germany, India, Spain, Italy, Nepal, Poland, Portugal, USA, Ukraine, Finland, France, Czech Republic and Japan.
Poems and stories were published in various Russian-language periodicals in Russia (including the magazine "Young Technician"), Belarus, Bulgaria, Germany, Italy, Kazakhstan, Canada, New Zealand, Ukraine and France (including the weekly "Russian Thought"). Silver laureate of the National Prize "Golden Pen of Russia" (Moscow, 2006) in the category "Ecology", laureate of the Russian-Japanese competition "Tanka" (St. Petersburg, 2017).
Already this year he became a laureate with a gold mention at the International Competition "Parnassus - Prize of Angelo La Vecchia" (Italy) in the nomination "Communication and Printing".
Author: Timur Jafarov