Sometimes it happens that the people who create it do not believe in the future. For example, Thomas Watson, the head of IBM, in 1943 in all seriousness said that the world would have enough with five computers - an entrepreneur to the bone could not imagine that anyone would need them at all. Writers are creative personalities who do not need to imagine the world as they want to see it: they are not nailed to the ground by rationality as by the force of attraction. Spaceships roam the Bolshoi Theater, and robots do not just work hard, as was sung in "The Adventures of Electronics", but also fight in "Robot Battles". However, today our story is about writers.
MARK TWAIN
Mark Twain is not known as science fiction at all, although no one would argue that he is fantastically good. At the same time, after the publication of his most successful and recognizable works, Twain took a couple of steps aside to admire this life in all its manifestations, like Tom Sawyer - a painted fence, and try himself in a different genre. In 1898, ten years after the release of The Adventures of Huckleberry Finn, he wrote a short story, From the London Times, 1904, in which he sketched with surprising accuracy what could not have been named at the end of the 19th century - the Internet …
“Then the thought came to him that it would be nice to have a telelectroscope - maybe it would amuse him a little. Clayton's wish was granted. The device was taken out and connected to the international telephone network. Now Clayton called day and night to all corners of the globe, looked at life there, watched various outlandish sights, talked with people, and thanks to this wonderful invention it began to seem to him that he had grown wings and he could fly wherever he wanted, although in reality in fact, he was in prison behind seven locks. He spoke little to me, and I never interfered with him when, forgetting about everything, he looked through the telescope. I sat in the waiting room, reading and smoking; the nights passed calmly, quietly, and I liked it. Clayton's voice rang out every now and then: “Give me Iedo,” “Give me Hong Kong,” “Give me Melbourne.” And I continued to smoke and read,while he wandered in distant lands, where at that time the sun was shining and people were going about their usual business."
Twain guessed not only the Internet, but also the way to access it - through the city telephone line, that is, in fact, dialup. If he also described the specific uterine sounds that today cause convulsions of nostalgia in some people, that would be a nostradamus combo!
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STANISLAV LEM
The writer, satirist, futurologist and philosopher Stanislav Lem, who created Solaris, himself, no, no, he turned into a reasonable Ocean, throwing phantoms of the future to those who tried to establish contact with it. In almost every piece of his, you can unearth some device that is today used in everyday life to the fullest. Audiobooks, e-readers, smartphones, tablets, the Internet - in one form or another, Lem described all these gadgets back in the 1960s.
Today, almost 60 years later, it’s hard to believe that Lem just invented all this: it seems that he lost all patience to wait for the approach of a beautiful far away and hastily assembled a time machine - flew, saw, wrote.
“I spent the afternoon at the bookstore. There were no books. They have not been published for nearly fifty years. […] The bookstore was more like an electronics laboratory. Books are crystals with information embedded in them. We read them using an opton. Opton looked like a real book with only one page between the covers. Every time I touched it, the next page of text appeared on it."
“But optons were rarely used,” the robot salesman told me. People preferred lektons - they read aloud, they could be adjusted to any timbre of voice, arbitrary tempo and modulation."
3D printing also did not seem to Lem to be something incredible - and this is in those days when an ordinary computer occupied an entire room and tried to capture the neighboring one with its dimensions.
“Finally, a trion can contain records of 'design developments' or 'product samples'. The automaton, connected to the trion by radio, will produce the product the subscriber needs and thus will be able to satisfy the most intricate whims of dreamers who want to have antique furniture or original clothes."
It is interesting, of course, that the science fiction classic limited the range of human potential fanciful whims only to antique furniture, but apparently, even he could not foresee everything.
HERBERT WELLES
The general fate is favorable to humanity: not all of H. G. Wells' predictions come true. Of course, it's a bit of a pity for the time machine that was never built (however, maybe it was still Lem who didn’t return it to the rental office), but we are definitely fine without the invasion of the Martians. But without internet delivery, central heating, kitchen appliances, the ubiquity of cars and telephone communications, it would be difficult. Here are just a few examples of Wells' incredible insight, which he collected in Foresight on the Impact of the Progress of Mechanics and Science on Human Life and Thought and published in 1901.
"In the future, houses are likely to be heated with pipes in the walls from a common strong heat source."
“Meanwhile, with the help of a pair of graceful tagans, heated by electricity, equipped with thermometers to control the temperature, cooking will turn into pleasant fun for any intelligent person. In addition, ugly chimneys will disappear from the roofs and the roof will be transformed into a clean, attractive open balcony.”
Bingo! To gaze at the taganchik today, a resident of the metropolis will have to go to the local history museum or drive a hundred kilometers away from the city, but a multicooker, blender, food processor and other toasters can be seen in almost every kitchen (especially talented people can not only look at them, but also use at home).
“Just think about what will be done with the phone when it comes into general use. The labor of wandering around the shops will almost disappear: you give orders by telephone and any goods will be sent to you at least a hundred miles from London; in one day, everything ordered will be delivered to your home, examined and, if unusable, sent back."
And again to the point - why not online delivery? Of course, one day is dashing, but couldn't Wells have foreseen the borderless speed at which postal services operate in some countries? And the very wording - "the work of wandering around the shops" - will delight any shopaholic who is already tired of proving that this is actually hard, hard work.
“With the help of the phone it will be possible to work without leaving home, for example, to conclude deals. And there will be no need to keep an office in the city center and commute to work every day."
Home office, freelancing, downshifting - Wells has collected all the coveted holy trinity of the vocabulary of the modern office worker. In general, an impressive part of the book "Foresight" turned out to be prophetic, or the engineers of the future took it as instructions and guidelines for action. In any case, we are not at a loss here, so, as another science fiction writer said, thanks for the fish, H. G. Wells!
VLADIMIR ODOEVSKY
There was a prophet in our country too: in 1837 the Russian writer and philosopher Vladimir Odoevsky presented the unfinished utopia "Year 4338", in which he tried to predict the course of events for the next couple of thousand years. He approached the matter with a truly Russian scale - and missed, but with a plus sign: many of his predictions came true already at the beginning of the XXI century.
“You ought to know that in many houses, especially among those who have great acquaintances, such newspapers are published; they are replacing ordinary correspondence.
The duty to publish such a magazine once a week or daily rests in every home on the dining butler. This is done very simply: each time, having received an order from the owners, he writes down everything that was said to him, then he shoots the required number of copies in the camera obscura and sends them to his acquaintances. This newspaper usually contains a notice about the health or illness of the owners and other domestic news, then various thoughts, remarks, small inventions, and also invitations; when there is a call for lunch, then le menu. Moreover, for communication in an emergency, between familiar houses, magnetic telegraphs are arranged, through which those living at a distant distance talk to each other."
Perhaps the big is really seen from a distance, since Odoevsky from Imperial Russia saw the arrival of the Internet, personal blogs, social networks and online diaries. The next time another friend clutters your tape with unnecessary details of his life, you will at least have a name for this - "intercourse in an emergency."
And here is good news for Petersburgers: by 4837, the roads will finally be repaired once and for all:
“At the beginning of 4837, when Petersburg had already been built and the pavement was no longer repaired, a road galvanostat (a balloon driven by galvanism. - V. F. Odoevsky's note.) Quickly descended to the platform of a high tower, which was located above the Hotel for Arrivals..
ISAAC ASIMOV
Isaac Asimov formulated three laws of robotics solely so that they would then be mercilessly trampled by the scriptwriters of the future (and the robots themselves, which from time to time still give up). In many ways, the writer turned out to be practically a prophet.
In 1964, he wrote an essay, World's Fair 2014, in which he tried to imagine the future 50 years from now.
“Wall screens will replace conventional TVs and transparent cubes with 3D viewing will become possible. The 2014 World's Fair will feature life-size 3D TVs for ballet viewing.”
Wonderful shot, master, no questions asked, perhaps - why exactly ballet?
“Communication will be carried out through image and sound, and you can not only hear, but also see the person you are calling. The screen can be used not only to see the person you are calling, but also to study documents, photographs and read excerpts from books."
“In the 2014 world, there will be less chores that machines can do much better than humans. Therefore, humanity will become basically a race that watches over machines."
Maybe our descendants in a digital portrait with a personal trajectory of development will have a "representative of a race that watches over machines" - an excellent replacement for all these intolerant Mongoloids, Negroids and Caucasians. If you haven't heard of a digital portrait - don't even google it, take care of yourself if you are not mentally ready for cyberpunk.
"Robots won't go mainstream, and they won't be all that good in 2014, but they will be in stock."
And again, a direct hit: Asimov, unlike many of his colleagues, did not flatter himself about the ubiquitous robotization of the future and quite soberly assessed the role of robots, the extent of their prevalence and technical potential in the next century. Of course, today we also have specimens that seem to have emerged from the "ominous valley", that is, they are so similar to a person (or to a galvanized corpse) that it becomes creepy, but mostly these are designs sharpened for elementary everyday tasks.