Why waste billions of dollars in space exploration when billions of people live below the poverty line here on Earth? You've probably heard the excuse. The space program brings us useful innovations and inventions. Space exploration provides us with perspective, inspiration and understanding. Because this is the last frontier.
True, you have not heard anything about the need to rush. NASA's struggle for its existence and funding testifies to how weak these excuses sound to the public, which is less concerned about space than pressing needs.
Perhaps this is why SpaceX and Tesla Motors founder Elon Musk, in an interesting interview with Ross Andersen, left out all the usual arguments for something completely different. Space exploration, Musk said, is as necessary as fighting poverty and disease is our insurance against extinction.
Photo: hi-news.ru
When we look back through the prism of time, it becomes clear that we are defenseless against the overwhelming force of nature. We just didn't fully experience her anger, because we didn't even have time to blink, by cosmological standards.
Musk says that any event that leads to existential extinction will make our struggle here on Earth completely meaningless.
“The good news is that the problems of poverty and disease have been resolved. The bad news is that there will be no more people left."
Promotional video:
We carry all our eggs in one basket and this is a terribly risky strategy. We need to diversify our planetary treasure to hedge against the worst, and the sooner the better.
Musk's thoughts are far from new. Science fiction writer Larry Niven once said, "Dinosaurs died out because they didn't have a space program." Therefore, Ed Lu decided to find a way to protect the planet from the asteroid.
But if, in principle, we can identify and potentially detonate an asteroid, other cosmic events can be much less predictable or preventable - the explosion of the nearest supernova; a gamma-ray flash towards the Earth; period of extreme volcanism. Any of them can destroy us.
Musk says he thinks a lot about the silence that has been rewarding us since telescopes began scanning the sky for interstellar communications between other civilizations.
Given the huge number of galaxies, stars and planets in the universe, life should be boiling in it. If even a tiny percentage of this life is reasonable, then thousands of civilizations are alive and well. So where are they?
This mystery is known as the Fermi Paradox, and Musk refers to several of the many theories to explain this silence:
“If you look at the level of modern technology, something strange must be happening to civilization, and I mean trouble. Perhaps the world is full of one-planetary dead civilizations."
These oddities may also be related to the evolutionary self-destruct button, as suggested by Carl Sagan. We have developed modern missiles at the same time as nuclear weapons.
But Fermi's paradox and its explanations, despite its philosophical appeal, do not solve the question of intelligent life. SETI's Seth Shostak warns us:
"The Fermi paradox is a big extrapolation from local observations." Just because we don't see signs of galactic colonies nearby doesn't mean they aren't there. But even without the Fermi paradox, it becomes clear that, as our geological records show, "extinction is the rule, and survival is the exception."
Let's say we accept the Mask argument. What's next? In fact, the billionaire did not start SpaceX to put satellites into orbit or deliver astronauts to the ISS. SpaceX is Musk's ticket to another planet, and he's not shy about talking about it.
After SpaceX sent its first human passengers to the space station; after almost developing reusable rockets; after launching the Falcon Heavy rocket - after all this, probably in the mid-2030s, Musk will establish a colony on Mars.
Some colonists will have to shell out $ 500,000 per ticket. Others will have to sell their belongings on Earth - like the first colonialists of America - to pay for the trip. But this will not be the most pleasant trip. It will be a difficult and dangerous journey, probably one way.
Even so, you don't have to force people. Mars One, which plans to do the same, has already received 200,000 applications from people looking for a one-way ticket. Mars One may not get people to the Red Planet, but it's a good indication that people are willing to give their lives to be there.
In the long run, however, we need a little more than a handful of colonists to get a solid landing on Mars.
Musk thinks it takes at least a million people to form a genetically diverse population and a self-sufficient manufacturing base. Yes, in a frozen desert without gas, oxygen and trees. There is water on Mars, but it is also difficult to obtain. We'll have to extract resources and create heavy industry. It will be a tremendously challenging event.
Musk thinks this will happen in the next century. He may be right. Probably no.
As Andersen notes, while Musk's ideas are grandiose, there is always room for doubt. Monumental goals - and specific deadlines. A century is too much. Colonizing Mars can be overwhelming for SpaceX. There are people who doubt our capabilities even in the near future.
Astronomer Royal and Astrophysicist Martin Rees said the following:
“I think that it is very important not to deceive ourselves that we can solve all earthly problems through mass emigration into space. In the entire solar system, there are not even such mild conditions as at the summit of Everest or at the South Pole - so any event will be extremely risky."
In short, people will definitely go beyond the Earth and the Moon. Maybe they will even live on other planetary bodies as temporary settlers. But the million-strong civilization Musk is dreaming of is extremely unlikely. At least until engineers can create on a planetary scale - terraform Mars, smash asteroids, build bubble cities on Mercury.
Musk is right about one thing. Time to go beyond the established cosmic boundaries. While there is time to admire people, but soon it may not be. It's too soon to get ready.
