I don't know if there will be a war. But judging by the outward signs, "on the other side" such an option was clearly recognized as quite acceptable. Hence the abrupt change in our behavior. Before Putin's speech to the Federal Assembly, Russia, even in critical moments, tried to adhere to a peaceful line of behavior, not focusing on the military, let alone nuclear, alternative. Another question is that the trump cards laid out by Putin for the gentlemen were too unexpected. This probably had a positive effect, but no one canceled the inertia of the system. It was going to confrontation, and the accelerated ship could not be stopped so immediately.
However, strategies of this magnitude never focus on the primitive achievement of only one tactical goal. War is not only about bombs, cannons and breaking through tank wedges. First of all, war is fear, first of all - fear of death. The desire to survive is a basic human instinct that influences his perception of the world and behavior. Often influencing even negatively and destructively, pushing for irrational thinking and hysterical behavior. Rescuers are taught to swim up to a drowning person always "from behind", otherwise there is a great risk that he will drown the rescuer in a panic.
So, it is very likely that one of the tactical goals of whipping up this military hysteria by the West is the desire to influence the results of the upcoming presidential elections. It didn't work out to play Navalny. The projects of "other" or "alternative" Russia have failed. An attempt to play on democracy led to an obvious fiasco both with the candidates for "other presidents" and the electorate supporting them. What's left? Agree to defeat? Yeah, schazzz, two times schazzz.
The game is not for abstract interest, but for the survival of the world. If defeated, the losing side's peace will almost certainly disappear. Like a culture. As an influencing force. And as a territory to a large part too. It's like the history of Spain, the once undoubtedly dominant force in Europe and even the world at that time. Spain itself has certainly survived, but compared to its former greatness, it is already only a pale shadow of TOY Spain.
In short, the stakes are too high to admit defeat so easily. With a goal, they decided. Putin is to blame for everything. Russia today rests on him, on his presidency. This means that the task of not allowing the extension of his presidency becomes key. How can I do this if other tools haven't worked? Scare the voter! Convince him that Putin is war.
The average man in the street often does not understand geopolitical intricacies. Either Putin stole those spoons, or someone else, or maybe they were found long ago, the main thing is that the sediment remains. War is scary. Moreover, all the media only discuss the scale of losses in the event of nuclear strikes.
There is a hope that some part of the electorate will be frightened and will not support the Darkest One. It doesn't matter how. Will vote for other candidates, spoil his ballots or simply will not show up at polling stations. The main thing is that in any case, one particular hated candidate will not receive their votes. You don't need much there.
According to opinion polls, about 70% of the 70% of the population who intend to participate in the elections are going to vote for Putin. In absolute terms, this is 49-50% of the total population of the country. If at least “about every tenth” is “scared”, then for “alternative candidates” there will be about 15 - 20% more votes than it is now. Plus, out of 11% of those who have not yet decided at least half will also be frightened and will vote “against the war” (no matter who it is).
Promotional video:
Translated into simple Russian, the result looks simple. If we leave everything as it is, Putin is gaining 68-72% of the vote and wins deafeningly in the first round. Because the most publicized closest competitor "from the communists", even in the most ideal scenario, gains no more than 12-14%, the rest - generally at the level of statistical noise. The escalation of an external military threat and the resulting panic may (from the point of view of the authors of the plan - should) lead to the fact that 25-30% of "Putin's" electorate will be frightened by the prospect and will vote for the same Grudinin. Let not all, let only the majority. But this is already enough to reduce the result of Putin to 45 - 51% and increase the result of the "new communist" to at least 32 - 35%. Plus, many of the “undecided” can vote for him, which will add another 3 - 5%.
As a result, the score is 45 - 37 and a window of opportunity appears, at least for the second round of elections, as a maximum for an attempt at Maidan. Both are good for “our foreign partners”. Because it creates the likelihood of victory in the second round, since instead of a crowd of alternatives, the choice will be made only between two. And the second candidate, from a specific personality with some kind of program and some personal impression, will turn not even into “against Putin”, but into much more - “against the War”, thereby collecting the support of all other “alternative, but did not reach the second round. And here it is theoretically possible that the “alternative” will get more votes than Putin. Even if not by much, even by only a couple of percent, but according to the rules of the second round, this is enough to change the president and, accordingly,the entire political course of the state.
You just need to act quickly. Because hysteria doesn't last long. In the current real situation, the West really does not want to fight "hot". Some of the elites may be yes, but the bulk of the population does not want to rise up in chest attacks on machine guns through radioactive funnels at all. And if the promised threat is not realized quickly enough, it stops feeding fear and hysteria inevitably evaporates. Hence the answer to the question - why this traitor was killed right now. By the way, at the expense of killed. Has anyone seen a photograph of the deceased? And his funeral? Here I am - no. Strange, isn't it? However, this is a separate story. The main thing is that right now they need maximum panic with a clear localization: Putin is war. Not yesterday. Not a month ago. Not in half a year. Namely now. When only a few days are left before the elections.
The plan, by the way, takes into account another, no less probable moment. If the gap between the leaders turns out to be not small enough to guarantee the automatic appointment of a second round, but not overwhelmingly large to completely remove the question of uncertainty, then in the wake of hysteria, it really becomes possible to try to shake the Maidan on the basis of the thesis that the elections were rigged and the opinion of the people who usurped power was ignored by the elites …
As already repeatedly tested option: alternative candidates declare their non-recognition of the results, take (or at least try) their supporters to the streets, the state uses riot police, tear gas, water cannons, and here's the Maidan. Social hysteria is always an excellent breeding ground for the formation of even the most openly delusional ideological demons. And there is already what the devil is not joking. In the end, all this is done not for the sake of the opinion of the people, but for the sake of influencing the opinion of groups in the ruling elite. With all that it implies. See the example of the Ukrainian Maidan. And there is just who and why to play. And not only among the oligarchs. In the power structures, special services, the state apparatus, there are also groups of their own. This is the structure of any state and any society. Again, the example of Ukraine is clear. Until the groups in the ruling elite decided on their position, the Maidan was quietly smoldering and even gradually fading away with a tendency to complete cessation. But as soon as the organizers of the show convinced a sufficient number of the elite that with a dashing coup they could win the division of the pie in their favor, literally two weeks and the country was gone. It is naive to think that a technology that has worked in more than two dozen different countries in Europe, Asia, the Middle East, Africa and Latin America, suddenly cannot work in Russia in principle. It's just a matter of creating the necessary conditions and nothing more. It is naive to think that a technology that has worked in more than two dozen different countries in Europe, Asia, the Middle East, Africa and Latin America, suddenly cannot work in Russia in principle. It's just a matter of creating the necessary conditions and nothing more. It is naive to think that a technology that has worked in more than two dozen different countries in Europe, Asia, the Middle East, Africa and Latin America, suddenly cannot work in Russia in principle. It's just a matter of creating the necessary conditions and nothing more.
If it is possible to bring the party to the second round, then the difference in votes there will be minimal. Precisely because everything from the very beginning is done through the tools of direct manipulation of public opinion. And for a long time "it is scary to threaten with war", but at the same time it is impossible not to start it constantly. Whatever one may say, society will begin to cool down and return to its current state, which overwhelmingly supports Putin. So whatever the second round ends, it will also create a good breeding ground for an attempt to organize the Maidan. Putin will win by a margin of "half a percent" - you can start fanning hysteria about the unrighteousness of vote counting, ballot stuffing, carousels, and "it's still dishonest, because there are almost as many against as for." With the same gap, Putin will lose - that is even better. The resulting result,as the recoil after the hysterical heat, the degree of active discontent of the absolute majority of society will begin to sharply increase. And this is definitely a Maidan, since if in the first version of the "disaffected" there are a maximum of a third of the society, including active, ready to go to the barricades, at most ten percent, then in the second case those 70% who support Putin will feel discontent, and even if among them only one in ten decides on barricades, in quantitative terms, this is about a fifth of the country's entire active population, which is more than enough for the Maidan.on the strength of ten percent, then in the second case those 70% who support Putin will feel discontent, and even if among them only one in ten decides on the barricades, in quantitative terms this is about one fifth of the country's entire active population, which for the Maidan is more than enough.on the strength of ten percent, then in the second case those 70% who support Putin will feel discontent, and even if among them only one in ten decides on the barricades, in quantitative terms this is about one fifth of the country's entire active population, which for the Maidan is more than enough.
Thus, "our foreign partners" hope to win in any case. Because having a Maidan at home, the country will sharply become not up to foreign policy games and confrontation with America. This opens up an opportunity for the United States to win back the almost failed game in its favor.
And you also ask why it was necessary to kill some old fugitive traitor with such fanfare …
PS Of course, all of the above strongly resembles conspiracy theory, but do not forget that even if you have paranoia, this does not mean at all that no one really is following you. Events of this magnitude never happen spontaneously, and the acting forces always have specific goals and views on their achievement. Moreover, when, after many decades, they surface in various memoirs or history books, it usually turns out that such plans do not contain anything incredibly insidious and brilliantly unexpected. The motives, ideas and goals are quite simple and understandable. Approximately as stated above. But how to relate to this, everyone is free to decide for himself.
Author: Alexander Zapolskis