The world can die for various reasons. Scientists comment on the three main threats to humanity
Are you afraid of the end of the world?
Many scientists regard Doomsday scenarios as fiction, rather than serious science, so “ordinary” disasters such as earthquakes are studied much more actively. But there are also experts researching extreme events on Earth and in space that could one day destroy us all.
According to them, the three main threats to our existence are solar storms, cosmic collisions and supervolcanoes. Writes about this sciencemag.org.
Threat 1: solar storms
The so-called solar storms are one of the greatest threats to humanity. Their source is giant flares on the Sun, when charged particles are ejected, which destroy the Earth's magnetosphere, that is, that region of space in which the influence of the magnetic field of our planet prevails. Solar storms can generate dangerous electrical effects on long distance power lines. These effects last only a few minutes, but can cause fatal damage.
One of the worst solar storms of our time occurred in March 1989, leaving six million people in Canada without electricity for twelve hours. However, the most powerful geomagnetic storm in the history of measurements - the "Carrington event" of 1859 - was even ten times more powerful. It caused fires around the world by sending current through telegraph cables.
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Patricia Reiff, a space physicist at Rice University in Houston, Texas, argues that if a solar storm of this magnitude hit the Earth today, it would have "enormous consequences." Hundreds of electrical transformers would be destroyed, large areas on all continents plunged into darkness for weeks and months, maybe years, explains Bill Murtagh, deputy director of space weather at the White House Science and Technology Policy Office.
The risk that a new geomagnetic storm of this magnitude will occur before 2022 is 12%.
“We (people on Earth - ed.) Have done an amazing job to become vulnerable in the face of this threat,” says Bill Martag.
Extensive power outages will be disastrous for information technology, pipelines and water pumps.
The probability of a major solar storm during our lifetime is very high. According to scientists, phenomena like the "Carrington event" occur approximately once every two centuries. According to a large 2012 study, the risk that the Earth will become a victim of a powerful geomagnetic storm in the next ten years, that is, even before 2022, is 12%.
Fortunately, telescopes register solar storms even at the moment of their formation, so that the approach of a threat can be predicted an hour or half an hour before it reaches Earth. But to prevent the consequences, all the electrical systems in the world will have to be strengthened, which is very expensive.
Threat 2: space collisions
The second threat also hails from space and is associated with the danger of near-Earth objects falling to Earth. The definition of "near-Earth objects" includes all objects in the solar system that are near the Earth, with the exception of planets, dwarf planets and satellites. In other words, we are talking about 14 thousand asteroids, more than 100 comets, several meteors and spacecraft.
There is no way to prevent serious consequences if such an object collides with our planet. You've probably heard about the ten-kilometer asteroid that destroyed all the dinosaurs. Even a much smaller fragment can lead to the death of humanity, says Michael Rampino, a space explorer at New York University.
A small space object can extinguish the sun for several months.
First of all, the collision of the Earth with a comet or asteroid will lead to a series of earthquakes and tsunamis, but not they, but dust will become fatal. Simulation of the situation showed that an object with a diameter of only one meter is capable of raising so much dust that the sun will hide behind a dust cloud for several months.
"All substances of a powdery consistency will rise up into the atmosphere and heat up, as if you turned on the oven," says Michael Rampio sciencemag. org.
Due to smoke and dust, the air temperature on Earth will drop sharply, which will be detrimental to many plants. Hunger will begin.
We are fortunate that asteroids a kilometer in diameter strike the Earth only once every two million years, and giants like the one that killed the dinosaurs appear once every hundred million years.
Threat 3: supervolcanoes
The third threat seems to be a more plausible reason for the future apocalypse, as it occurs much more often than cosmic collisions. About once every 100 thousand years, a supervolcano erupts somewhere and pours endless streams of lava.
One supervolcano produces more than 450 cubic kilometers of magma, it is impossible to stop it during an eruption, and it causes enormous damage. The supervolcano Toba in Indonesia, which erupted 74,000 years ago, probably wiped out most of the world's population.
Now there are seven supervolcanoes on the planet, including the American Yellowstone, New Zealand Taupo and Indonesian Toba. Currently, none of them pose a direct threat. But in the event of an eruption, everything within a radius of hundreds of kilometers around will burn up, and ash will cover all continents.
Ruinous ash
When the Yellowstone volcano last erupted 640,000 years ago, a layer of suffocating ash covered all of North America, and the Earth's climate changed dramatically.
Below is the calculation of the spread of ash in the event of a new eruption of the Yellowstone supervolcano (see the original article - ed.). The distribution pattern depends on the season.
Just a couple of millimeters of volcanic ash kills crops, and a meter deep makes the soil sterile for decades, according to sciencemag.org volcanologist Susanna Jenkins of the University of Bristol in the UK.
An ash cloud from a volcanic eruption has serious consequences. You probably remember the 2010 eruptions of the Eyjafjallajökull volcano in Iceland, which disrupted air traffic in much of Europe and some African regions. Farmers in Kenya have lost millions of dollars with exports to Europe cut off. But Eyjafjallajökull is far from a supervolcano.
Fields covered with volcanic ash after the eruption of Mount Sinabung in Indonesia
Ashes can destroy buildings, plumbing and electronics. But the worst consequence of a supervolcano eruption is its impact on the climate. Like a cosmic collision, a supervolcano can make the temperature on Earth many times lower than it is today. When drops of sulfuric acid liquid after the eruption fall into the stratosphere, the Earth will become five to ten degrees colder, and the effect will last up to ten years. This will destroy the world's agriculture.
Fortunately, the end of the world is unlikely to happen anytime soon. But now you know what three scenarios to watch out for.
Reader Comments:
Soren Løbner 2016-28-07
“If we look objectively, then only threat No. 2 can lead to the destruction of the Earth. If an object of large enough size crashes into the Earth, as it was 4 thousand years ago. The rest of the scenarios involve deaths, which is much less of a concern. Life will arise again."
Tommy Nagel 2015-27-07
“In my opinion, the main problem is overpopulation. And also the war with the use of hydrogen bombs. Add to this the climate change that we do not control."
Sandy Haae Hoyrup 2016-27-07
“The likelihood that humans will destroy the Earth first is higher. A madman who finds himself in the wrong place can cause disastrous consequences for a very long time. Maybe irreparable damage will be done today?
The reasons are our usual frivolity, the way of life of various groups of the population, as well as general indifference. I believe that the greatest danger to the existence of the Earth is ignorance and the human mind."