How will the war in space go? Given the primitive state of our space technology, we can hardly imagine what kind of weapon will be used in it. But let's put aside our fantasies about plasma bombs and Death Stars, take a step back and think about strategy, that is, about the causes of the conflict and its general outline. The basic principles of strategy have not changed since the monkeys roamed the forests, tormenting their enemies and slowly exhausting their enemies' packs. We have every reason to believe that the same principles will apply in extraterrestrial warfare.
The possibilities of interstellar wars are of interest not only to science fiction writers looking for new storylines, but also to astronomers who are baffled as to why we have not yet found any signs of extraterrestrial life. To this there is one very disappointing answer: perhaps we are not unique, and our galaxy is full of military threats. Aggressive species could destroy each other with nuclear weapons, while the rest, fearing a devastating attack, could lay low and not stick out. Some scientists argue that it would not hurt us to keep a prudent silence, so as not to experience the war of worlds in real life. But there are others who consider a war with aliens unlikely, and believe that space battles are likely to be fought among humans.
Writer and PhD student at Finnish University Aalto Janne Korhonen is one of the few interstellar war theorists (yes, there are). In 2013, he wrote that aliens, even significantly superior to us in technology and technology, are unlikely to attack earthlings. For starters, why do they need it? Wars are usually fought over resources. About a century ago, historian John Edwin Bakeless estimated that 14 of the 20 wars that fought from 1878 to 1918 had economic causes and were closely related to the establishment of control over natural resources. This number will be even higher if it includes the invasive colonial wars, which can be considered a struggle for resources.
But if aliens need resources, then an attack on Earth does not make much sense, since gas giants and asteroids have huge reserves of materials that you can take as much as you like and completely freely. Of course, Earth has the greatest variety of materials in the solar system due to the effects of life and water; But getting to our solar system will take a huge amount of fuel, making this whole venture pointless from a cost-benefit point of view. Only an alien species that needs our specific minerals (or that needs food in the form of intelligent creatures on a carbon basis) can decide on such a voyage.
Nevertheless, if the aliens still decide to fight with us, they will face enormous risks. Korhonen argues that if the aliens are not one hundred percent confident in their ability to destroy us, they will not be confident in the final victory over us. It is often said that advanced aliens look at us like ants - and whoever has ants in the house or in the yard knows that it is almost impossible to destroy them. Even if only a few survive, they will multiply very quickly and repopulate the planet, but at the same time they will get acquainted with the technologies of the aggressor and prepare a retaliatory strike. Meanwhile, neighboring civilizations that have witnessed such aggression may enter this war, at least for the sake of protecting their own interests. In light of these strategic calculations, an alien invasion would be sheer folly.
In science fiction, we tend to focus on wars between aliens and humans. But if it comes to real Star Wars, we will not have to think about alien species, but about our own. When we and our robotic descendants begin to settle throughout the solar system, the Earth will become its capital or the center of concentration of power and authority, since this is our place of origin - and also the largest solid planet. But on Mars, Ceres and other colonized celestial bodies, over time, their own economic and political systems will arise. It is enough to look at our own history, and we understand that the aspiration of alien colonies for sovereignty may well lead to war, as well as disputes over resources.
The 19th century Prussian military theorist Karl von Clausewitz argued that there are three main strategies in war: destruction, infliction of losses, and harassment. Science fiction writers usually prefer destruction as a single decisive battle in which one side destroys the enemy's military might. But history shows that the other two strategies are much more common, and they will guide the commanders of interplanetary wars. Inflicting casualties implies a gradual weakening of the enemy's military strength, and attrition usually means weakening the industrial power and willpower of the population. In space warfare, an all-out offensive will be difficult due to the vast distances and energy costs. The enemy will be able to cut off supply routes, bomb out cargo ships and block radio communications. One side may refuse to fight, even if it is not defeated, because the costs will be unacceptably high.
Astrobiology professor at the University of Edinburgh, Charles Cockell, in his essay for a symposium entitled “Dissent, Revolution, and Freedom Beyond Earth,” argues that we can achieve interplanetary peace on the same principle that prevented World War III: Mutually Assured destruction. The outer space habitat is unusually fragile, and if you punch a hole in the airtight dome of an alien colony, it will be enough to destroy thousands of people. Until Mars is completely terraformed (that is, brought into a state suitable for humans, terrestrial animals and plants), all colonies there will be too unstable to start a war. And asteroids and satellites of the outer planets will always be extremely vulnerable.
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The Earth also has vulnerabilities, as Ian Crawford of the University of London and Stephen Baxter of the British Interplanetary Society wrote about in their work last year. The force of gravity on Earth is stronger than that of rival worlds, and therefore meteorites fired at it will fly with acceleration and cause colossal damage. Thus, the costs of war in space for all sides will outweigh the benefits of it.
Maybe in space we will be able to achieve the peace that so often eludes us on Earth.