The world is rapidly approaching another major war, which has every chance of escalating into a third world war. The causes of this war go deeper than the struggle for oil resources
They lie in the field of morality and worldview of modern Western postmodern society. Theorists and analysts from US research centers sincerely believe that the global conflict will, in a tactical perspective, divert attention from the internal problems of the "Western world", and in a strategic perspective, it will strengthen the US imperial dictatorship. Moreover, leading American politicians are now talking about the imperial nature of the state structure. Suffice it to mention the popular ideologue William Kristol and the former Deputy Secretary of Defense Paul Wolfowitz.
A new term "empire of a democratic type" comes into political use. The term is on a par with "sovereign democracy" and, apparently, Pelevin's "liberal democracy".
It is interesting to discuss the value system and philosophy of the modern world order, but we are faced with more pressing everyday questions - what to prepare for. Unfortunately, the fears of the first quarter of 2011 have come true. Moreover, additional destructive factors have emerged that are shaking the world order. A zone of instability has been created in northern Africa. Libya has been relegated to the level of Iraq and Afghanistan - there is a bloody civil war. The other day, acting according to the Iraqi scheme, American troops in the amount of 12 thousand people landed at the largest oil terminal in Libya - the city of Marsa el-Brega. Within a month, the contingent will take control of all Libyan fields. The tasks of the military operation can be considered completed. At the same time, a civil war will be supported in the region - this way it is cheaper and easier to control the territory.
At the economic level, the model has been tested in Iraq. The minimum cost of maintaining a peaceful life and rebuilding Iraq, according to US analysts, will be $ 100 billion per year (in addition to existing costs). In addition, the terror regime makes it possible to justify the presence of the military and conduct military operations.
The destabilization of Egypt and Tunisia is also part of the "controlled chaos" strategy. The organized Arab state of Egypt, with the largest armed forces in the region (about 500 thousand troops and 500 thousand reservists) and a stable economy, was able to create significant problems for the Western allies on the way to control Libyan oil, not to mention potential operations in Syria and Iran. … Egypt is now rapidly approaching a state of civil war. The election of a representative of the "Muslim Brotherhood" as speaker of the lower house of parliament on January 23 will not bring stability. The economy of the state is in the deepest crisis, in the regions of Upper Egypt famine is likely.
At the same time, the neighboring state to the south - Sudan in 2011 was divided into two parts. Egypt is bordered by the poorest part, the one that got less than 25% of oil resources, but more than three quarters of the population - about 31 million people. In turn, over 80 million people live in Egypt. This is a huge demographic burden.
The collapse of the tourism sector, a downturn in industry and a prolonged decline in economic activity of the population will predictably lead to default and hyperinflation, with all the ensuing consequences.
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At the same time, the Western allies should not expect a military threat from Egypt and Sudan, even if the ideas of radical Islam spread there. The neighboring Arabian Peninsula is controlled by the US allies, bound by dollar-oil bail, Saudi Arabia, Qatar and the UAE. In the East, the Americans also have a militarily strong strategic ally - Israel. In the east, in a civil war-torn Libya, there is already an American contingent. Moreover, as soon as the situation in Egypt gets out of the control of the central authorities, NATO or UN troops will be deployed to the Suez Canal area "to ensure the safety of navigation." The occupation of the canal zone already took place in 1956. Using a similar scenario, Israel could reoccupy the Sinai Peninsula, which is unlikely to entail Western protest.
Moving east along the strategic Mediterranean-Caspian arc, we come to Syria. New sanctions against this country, imposed by the European Union, came into force this week. US agents in the League of Arab States - Qatar, Saudi Arabia and the UAE - actively support the idea of introducing troops into Syrian territory. Riots and clashes between government forces and insurgents intensify. The scenario of a civil war is evident.
The Syrian rebels have weapons and ammunition and are well equipped. Recently, information appeared in the media about "deserters" fighting with government forces in the area of the suburb of Damascus - the city of Duma. Some sources estimate their number at 3-5 thousand people. The question arises - are not these "deserters" the very same military formation of Afghan and Pakistani mercenaries, which was seen in Libya and, according to observers, changed the course of the ground campaign? After all, the border of Syria with Iraq is now almost transparent, the territory of Kurdistan is not controlled by anyone, and the Kurds themselves have long dreamed of creating an independent state.
Syria is the key to the Middle East and Iraq is the castle. "Controlled chaos" is a planned future for the entire region. The fall of Syria will finally untie the hands for an attack on Iran, with access to subsequent control over the Caspian oil and gas fields in the north, the strategically important Persian Gulf in the south, destabilization of the Caucasus and Central Asia. The result of the global project will be an "arc of war" from Algeria to China.
The described model has an economic rationale: control over energy resources is combined with the expansion of sales markets for Western corporations. The ideological basis is the "American Dream", in the version "to escape from the terrifying reality." In this light, it is no coincidence that the Americans are active in Tajikistan and Uzbekistan, so far timid attempts to swing Kazakhstan.
The task is greatly facilitated by the low standard of living in the countries of the region and, as a consequence, the high level of protest moods.
At the same time, the solidarity of the Iranian population and the determination of the country's leadership to defend independence are very great. In the European Union, at the same time, financial and political crises are gaining strength. Therefore, the imposition of sanctions against Iran will hit, first of all, Greece, Spain and Portugal.
A knife stabbing from the west into Eurasia can rip open fragile stability and lead the world to the undivided imperial hegemony of the United States amid numerous local conflicts and civil wars. It is extremely difficult to predict how fast economic and political events will develop. At the same time, we must not forget that all this is happening on our doorstep and concerns every inhabitant of Russia, Kazakhstan, Belarus and other CIS countries.
Denis Gafner
