Researchers from the British University of Northumbria came to the conclusion that a small ice age has begun on Earth, thereby confirming the version of Russian scientists about an impending cooling on the planet. Read more about this in the article by Alexander Gorodnitsky.
As for modern myths, the main one is the myth of global warming, which has frightened all of humanity in our time. The myth began with former US Vice President Al Gore, who released in 2007 a book under the intriguing title An Inconvenient Truth and a lengthy documentary of the same name. The main idea, presented in the book and in the film, was that the main cause of global warming is the release of industrial carbon into the atmosphere. As a result, the so-called greenhouse effect arises, which leads to a sharp rise in temperature on the surface of our planet. Intensive melting of ice in the Arctic and Greenland begins. The level of the World Ocean will rise in the near future. The water will flood London, New York, Tokyo and other coastal cities. This will lead to massive epidemics. The mountain glaciers that feed the rivers will melt, and problems with fresh water will begin, for which they will fight tomorrow, just like today for oil, etc., etc.
Frightened by this threat, the leading countries of the world at the end of the twentieth century signed agreements in Kyoto on a sharp reduction in industrial carbon emissions. The prime ministers are going to special meetings on how to deal with rising sea levels. The compulsory subject "Global Warming" has been introduced in American schools. Al Gore received the Nobel Prize. Huge amounts of money are being spent all over the world to combat global warming.
The voices of individual scientists who disagree with the script for this horror movie are drowned in well-organized panic noise. What is really going on?
In fact, this book and film is a collection of erroneous and illiterate climatic "horror stories" such as the melting of the ice caps of Greenland and Antarctica, catastrophic rises in the level of the World Ocean, predictions of an unbearably hot climate and a shortage of fresh water and panic calls for the fight against "windmills".
In particular, according to academician V. M. Kotlyakov and our observations of the snow cover of the Pole of Relative Inaccessibility of Antarctica, the mass of ice and snow on this continent has increased significantly over the past 30–40 years, and not decreased, as Albert Gore claims. The book and film, illiterate and harmful from the point of view of the physical foundations of the formation of the Earth's climates, were loudly advertised without any scientific discussion, received immediate recognition from international officials, "green ecologists" and politicians, and, as already mentioned, were awarded the prestigious international Nobel Prize. This sad fact suggests that professional scientists, not amateurs and politicians, should deal with climate change problems.
As a result of a well-organized international political campaign, the leading countries of the world signed the Kyoto Protocol, which calls for the reduction of emissions of so-called "greenhouse gases" into the atmosphere, and above all the main one - carbon dioxide. This protocol is based on the erroneous assumption that these gases allegedly lead to an increase in the greenhouse effect and a significant warming of the Earth's climate.
The main argument of the supporters of this hypothesis is the coincidence of climate warming in the last decades of the twentieth century with a simultaneous increase in the content of anthropogenic carbon dioxide in the atmosphere. At the same time, they forget that the last climate warming began at the beginning of the 17th century, when there was no need to talk about emissions of anthropogenic greenhouse gases into the atmosphere. Starting from about 2006-2007, apparently, a new noticeable cooling of the Earth's climate has already been observed, which, in particular, is evidenced by the current snowy winter, and the next one is expected to be even more severe.
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It is known that periods of noticeable warming were observed earlier. Thus, Greenland (Green Land) discovered by the Vikings in the 10th century was covered with abundant vegetation, and now it is under a thick layer of ice.
Until the beginning of the XXI century, there was no scientific theory of the greenhouse effect and the influence of "greenhouse gases" on the thermal regimes of the atmosphere. There is no reliable evidence of the influence of "greenhouse gases" on the Earth's climates. Therefore, all the calls of the Kyoto Protocol are based only on intuitive ideas.
In contrast to the primitive hypothesis of the dependence of climate on only one reason - the concentration of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere at the P. P. Shirshov RAS professor O. G. Sorokhtin developed a physical theory of the Earth's climate. It shows that the temperature of the troposphere (the lower layer of the earth's atmosphere) and the earth's surface itself depends on at least seven main factors: 1) the luminosity of the Sun, 2) the pressure of the atmosphere, 3) the reflectivity of the Earth (its albedo), 4) from the angle of precession of the Earth's axis of rotation, 5) from the heat capacity of air, 6) from humidity, and 7) from the absorption of thermal radiation from the Sun and the Earth by greenhouse gases. In this case, it is necessary to take into account the negative feedback of the conversion of solar radiation by the cloud cover of the planet, which usually plays the main role in the formation of its albedo (i.e.reflectivity). The theory proposed by Sorokhtin is quantitative and allows one to numerically calculate both the influence on the climate of each of the listed factors separately, and their total influence.
So what is the reason for fluctuations in climatic temperatures? First of all - with fluctuations in solar activity. The change in the angle of the Earth's precession (the inclination of the axis of its rotation with respect to the perpendicular to the plane of the Earth's revolution around the Sun) determines only the smooth trend of these oscillations. The rest of the factors either remained constant or were averaged.
The energy analysis of the created physical theory of the greenhouse effect showed that the dominant process that controls the removal of solar heat from the atmosphere, as well as the temperature distribution in the troposphere, is the convection of the Earth's air masses. As for the heating of the troposphere by greenhouse gases that absorb the infrared radiation of the Earth warmed up by the Sun, this process leads to the expansion of these volumes of gas and to their rapid rise to the stratosphere, and to replace them from the stratosphere, already significantly cooled air masses descend to the Earth's surface. As a result, the average air temperatures in the troposphere practically do not change or even become lower. Therefore, the concentration of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere (and especially carbon dioxide) has practically no effect on the planet's climate.
In Al Gore's film, there is one spectacular moment: he stands with a pointer in his hands in front of a screen, which shows the curve of the temperature rise in the atmosphere, and above it the same rise in carbon content. “You see how the CO2 content in the atmosphere increases with the temperature?”
In fact, the opposite is true. There is direct evidence that changes in CO2 content in the atmosphere are a consequence of changes in temperature, not its cause. Thus, while drilling the ice sheet at the Vostok station in Antarctica, the CO2 content in the air bubbles of this cover was measured simultaneously with the isotopic temperatures of ice characterizing the average temperatures of the oceans, the evaporation of which gave rise to the Antarctic ice sheet (the temperature of evaporation of oceanic waters was determined from isotopic shifts of oxygen O-18 and hydrogen (deuterium) D + 2). It turned out that a very strong direct correlation of these parameters was observed over 420 thousand years. Calculations show that a change in the temperature of the modern ocean by ± 1 ° C leads to a change in the partial pressure of CO2 in the atmosphere by approximately ± 13,510-6 atm. (i.e. ± 13.5 ppm). During the periods of the Quaternary glaciations that occurred over the last million years, the decrease in the average ocean temperature could reach 4 ° C (up to 276 K). Then the decrease in the partial pressure of CO2 in the atmosphere should have decreased by approximately 52–54 mass ppm, or by 79–82 volume ppmv. But it is precisely of this order that CO2 concentration fluctuations are observed in air bubbles from cores of the Antarctic ice sheet at Vostok station (about 80–90 ppmv). But it is precisely this order of fluctuations in CO2 concentration that are observed in air bubbles from cores of the Antarctic ice sheet at Vostok station (about 80–90 ppmv). But it is precisely this order of fluctuations in CO2 concentration that are observed in air bubbles from cores of the Antarctic ice sheet at Vostok station (about 80–90 ppmv).
Measurements have shown, and it is important to note that the temperature first changed, and only after it, after 500-600 years, the CO2 concentration. This result almost unambiguously indicates that fluctuations in the concentration of CO2 in the atmosphere are a consequence of climate change, and not its cause. By the way, the time of 500-600 years just corresponds to the complete mixing of the upper, active layer of the World Ocean, which contains the bulk of carbon dioxide (the ocean contains about 90 times more carbon dioxide than the atmosphere).
The averaged theoretical picture of the Earth's climate change over the past 400 thousand years, built and coordinated with the data of drilling the Antarctic ice sheet, with the addition of a forecast for the next 120 thousand years, showed that in this time interval significant changes in climatic temperatures are associated with periodic fluctuations in the Earth's precession angle, occurring under the influence of its tidal interactions with the Moon and the Sun, as well as with ice sheets formed on the northern continents.
As follows from this calculation, in the future we will only have a significant cooling of the climate, but we need to prepare for it now. In addition, the last warming phase of the 20th century, which began around the 70s, was associated with the ascending phase of sixty years of solar activity, while in the 21st century its descending phase of activity has already begun, which can only lead to an additional cooling of the climate. In any case, for the next thirty years.
The idea of heating the earth's atmosphere with greenhouse gases was first suggested at the end of the 19th century by the famous Swedish scientist Svante Arrhenius (1859–1927), who discovered that CO2 molecules can be heated by absorbing infrared radiation coming, for example, from the Earth's surface heated by the Sun. From this it was concluded that the more carbon dioxide in the atmosphere, the warmer it is on Earth. Obvious? Yes, but still it would have to be checked. After all, it once seemed obvious that it was the Sun that revolved around the motionless Earth, and even after Copernicus, this idea dominated the scientific community of that time for many years …
As a result of a well-organized international political campaign, the leading countries of the world signed the Kyoto Protocol, which calls for the reduction of emissions of so-called "greenhouse gases" into the atmosphere, and, above all, the main one - carbon dioxide. This protocol is based on the erroneous assumption that these gases allegedly lead to an increase in the greenhouse effect and a warming of the Earth's climate.
Until the beginning of the XXI century, there was no scientific theory of the greenhouse effect and the influence of "greenhouse gases" on the thermal regimes of the atmosphere. In addition, today there is no reliable evidence of the influence of "greenhouse gases" on the Earth's climates. Therefore, all the calls of the Kyoto Protocol are based only on intuitive ideas. The physical theory of the Earth's climate developed at the Institute of Oceanology of the Russian Academy of Sciences shows that the temperature of the troposphere (the lower layer of the earth's atmosphere) and the earth's surface depends not on one reason, but on at least seven factors: from the luminosity of the Sun and ending with the absorption of its own radiation. Moreover, the developed theory makes it possible to numerically calculate the influence on the climate of each of the listed factors separately and their total influence.
So what is the reason for fluctuations in climatic temperatures on planet Earth? Now this question can be answered quite definitely - with fluctuations in solar activity!
The energy analysis of the created physical theory of the greenhouse effect showed that the dominant process that controls the removal of solar heat from the atmosphere, as well as the temperature distribution in the troposphere, is the convection of the Earth's air masses. As a result, the average air temperatures in the troposphere practically do not change or even become cooler. That is why the concentration of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere (and especially carbon dioxide) has practically no effect on the planet's climate.
The well-known (moreover, published!) Experimental results almost unambiguously indicate that fluctuations in the concentration of CO2 in the atmosphere are a consequence of climate changes, and not its cause.
The picture of the earth's climate change over the past 400 thousand years, with the addition of a forecast for the next 120 thousand years, allows us to conclude that in the future we will only have a significant cooling of the climate, but we need to prepare for it now.
According to various estimates, about 5-7 billion tons of carbon dioxide, or 1.4-1.9 billion tons of pure carbon, are currently released into the atmosphere from the combustion of fossil fuels. This colossal amount of carbon entering the atmosphere affects not only the composition of its gas mixture and a decrease in the adiabatic index, but also somewhat increases the total pressure of the atmosphere. Both of these factors act in opposite directions, as a result, the average temperature of the earth's surface remains almost unchanged. It will hardly change even if the concentration of carbon dioxide doubles, which is expected by 2100.
An important practical conclusion follows from the above estimates that even significant emissions of technogenic carbon dioxide into the earth's atmosphere do not actually change the average indicators of its thermal regime and the greenhouse effect. At the same time, an increase in the concentration of this gas in the earth's atmosphere is undoubtedly a useful factor that significantly increases agricultural productivity and contributes to a more effective restoration of plant mass in deforestation areas.
Many American scientists who studied climate change in different regions of North America came to similar conclusions in 1997. In this regard, the former president of the US National Academy of Sciences, Professor Frederick Seitz, writes: “Experimental data on climate change do not show the harmful effects of anthropogenic use of hydrocarbons. In contrast, there is strong evidence that increasing atmospheric carbon dioxide is beneficial.” Seitz prepared a petition by scientists to the US government calling for the abandonment of the International Agreement on Global Warming of Climate, concluded in the Japanese city of Kyoto in December 1997, and other similar agreements. The petition states, in part: “There is no convincing scientific evidence that anthropogenic carbon dioxide emissions,methane or other greenhouse gases cause or may in the foreseeable future cause a catastrophic warming of the Earth's atmosphere and destruction of its climate. In addition, there is substantial scientific evidence showing that an increase in the concentration of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere leads to a positive effect on the natural growth of plants and animals in the Earth's environment. The petition was signed by more than 15,000 American scientists and engineers. The petition was signed by more than 15,000 American scientists and engineers. The petition was signed by more than 15,000 American scientists and engineers.
In this regard, it is necessary to once again draw attention to the fact that the Kyoto Protocol has no scientific justification, in its essence contradicts the physics of natural processes and completely incorrectly explains the influence of anthropogenic influences on the climate. In particular, the Russian Academy of Sciences officially announced this, in particular, in 2004, but they did not listen to it, and our country nevertheless signed this pseudoscientific and harmful protocol for the country.
Only in December 2012, at the UN World Climate Conference, Russia withdrew from the Kyoto Agreement, and did the right thing. It should be noted that the United States, where they know how to count money, did not participate in it from the very beginning.
It should be borne in mind that an increase in the partial pressure of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere leads to a proportional increase in the efficiency of agriculture and the rate of recovery of deforested forests. Therefore, the costly (of the order of many tens of billions of dollars a year) measures to stabilize the CO2 concentration proposed by the International Environmental Organizations do not make sense and are harmful to the economy and agriculture. These funds could be more usefully used for the development of the same economy and social spheres.
Now all kinds of pseudoscientific (and sometimes just pseudo-scientific) forecasts about a sharp warming of the climate, melting ice sheets of Antarctica, about a significant rise in the level of the World Ocean, about the flooding of many coastal cities and even about a "universal catastrophe" are actively spreading in the media. an increase in the partial pressure of carbon dioxide. In fact, we are now living at the peak of a relatively small local warming, after which a new cooling phase will begin (if it has not already begun). The main regulator of the temperature of the earth's atmosphere is the radiant energy of the sun, associated with the distance between the earth and the sun. This distance changes periodically over time. Several years ago, it was minimal, which led to warming, and now it is starting to increase. In 10-15 years, we will not face global warming, but, on the contrary, a global cooling, similar to the one that already occurred in Europe at the beginning of the 17th century. By the way, already today, along with the melting of glaciers in the Arctic, ice cover is building up in Antarctica, where the largest reserves of fresh water on our planet are concentrated. I would like to ask: to whom and why is it profitable to intimidate humanity with the myth of global warming?
The upcoming cold snap may be the deepest in the past several thousand years, but it is necessary to prepare for it now, since it will be a harbinger of the next ice age.
The reason for the beginning and still coming global cooling of the climate is also associated with a decrease in the angle of precession of the Earth and a decrease in the total pressure of the earth's atmosphere. According to O. G. Sorokhtin, this is due to the vital activity of nitrogen-consuming bacteria, which constantly remove nitrogen from the air and convert it into precipitation. Unfortunately, these processes are uncontrollable and we can hardly do anything to suspend them.
From the arguments presented, one definitely gets the impression that the Kyoto Protocol may turn out to be the largest international financial and political scam.