Faced with the persistent propaganda of environmental avtivists, several dozen scientists, including geologists, geophysicists, astrophysicists, that is, people competent in the field of climatology, perceived it as their civic duty to send a petition to responsible politicians refuting the petition widely disseminated by people who control the media, the version that the scientific community allegedly unanimously links the causes of global warming with human activity.
In fact, the signatories note, the assumption that global warming is of anthropogenic origin is based on mathematical models that were unable to reproduce the climate of the past and failed when trying to predict the climate in the past 20 years. Related to this is the call to abandon deceptive climate control policies, the only consequence of which is to hinder the supply of energy to humanity.
President of the Republic, Chairman of the Senate, Chairman of the Chamber of Deputies, Chairman of the Council of Ministers
Petition in connection with anthropogenic global warming
The undersigned, citizens and academics, are making a compelling appeal to responsible policy makers to ensure that environmental policies are adopted based on scientific knowledge. In particular, urgent measures to control environmental pollution must be taken where it occurs, in accordance with the prescriptions of progressive science. In this regard, the delays with which the legacy of knowledge has been put at the disposal of the world of science to reduce anthropogenic pollutant emissions that are widespread in environmental systems, both onshore and offshore, is unfortunate.
It must be recognized, however, that carbon dioxide itself is not a pollutant. On the contrary, it is essential for life on our planet.
In the past few decades, a theory has been spreading according to which an increase in the temperature of the Earth's surface by about 0.9 degrees Celsius, noted since 1850, is supposedly an anomaly and is associated exclusively with human life, in particular with the release of CO2 into the atmosphere from the result of the use of fossil fuels. This is the thesis of "anthropogenic global warming", which is insisted by the United Nations Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, believing that it will entail serious changes in the environment that can cause enormous damage in the near future, unless radical and costly mitigation measures. To this end, many countries of the world have joined programs to reduce carbon dioxide emissions and found themselves under pressure, including from relentless propaganda, forcing them to agree to increasingly demanding programs, the implementation of which, associated with a heavy burden on the economy of each of countries that have joined the program, supposedly control over the climate, and, consequently, the "salvation" of the planet.
The anthropogenic origin of global warming is, however, an unproven hypothesis that follows only from individual climate models, that is, complex computer programs called General Circulation Models. In contrast, the scientific literature has emphasized more the existence of natural climatic variability, which these models are unable to reproduce. This natural variability explains much of the global warming that has been observed since 1850. The anthropogenic nature of climatic changes in the last century, therefore, turns out to be unreasonably exaggerated, and catastrophic forecasts are not realistic.
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Climate is the most complex system on the planet and must be dealt with using appropriate methods appropriate to its level of complexity. Climate models do not reproduce natural variability that is characteristic of the climate, and in particular they do not reproduce the warming periods of the past ten thousand years. Such periods recurred approximately every thousand years and include the famous Medieval Climatic Optimum, the Roman Climate Optimum, and generally extended periods during the Climate Optimum. These periods were even hotter in the past than today, despite lower CO2 concentrations than today, and there is a relationship with millennial solar cycles. And these models do not reproduce this effect.
It should be remembered that the warming observed from 1900 to the present day actually began in 1700, that is, starting with the minimum phase of the Little Ice Age, the coldest in the last ten thousand years (corresponding to the millennial minimum of solar activity, which astrophysicists call the Minimum Maunder). Since then and until today, solar activity, following its thousand-year cycle, has increased, increasing the temperature of the Earth's surface. Moreover, these models fail to reproduce the known climatic fluctuations that occur approximately every 60 years. It is with them that, for example, a warming period from 1850 to 1880 was associated, followed by a cooling period from 1880 to 1910, then a warming period from 1910 to 1940, again a cooling period from 1940 to 1970,a new period of warming from 1970 to 2000, similar to that observed 60 years ago. In subsequent years (from 2000 to 2019), the temperature increase of about 0.2 degrees Celsius was not predicted by the models, but, in fact, the climate stability, sporadically interrupted by the transient natural fluctuations of the equatorial Pacific Ocean, known as the El Niño Southern Oscillation: caused a short-term warming between 2015 and 2016.known as the El Niño Southern Oscillation, which caused the short-term warming between 2015 and 2016.known as the El Niño Southern Oscillation, which caused the short-term warming between 2015 and 2016.
The media claims that natural disasters such as hurricanes and cyclones have increased in frequency to alarming proportions. On the contrary, these events, like many climate systems, vary within the designated 60-year cycle. If, for example, the official data from 1880 on tropical Atlantic cyclones that hit North America are considered, there is a strong fluctuation within 60 years, correlating with the temperature swings in the Atlantic Ocean known as the North Atlantic Oscillation. The observed ten-year peaks coincide in the following years: 1880-1890, 1940-1950 and 1995-2005. From 2005 to 2015, the number of cyclones dropped just after the cycle. Thus,between 1880 and 2015, there is no correlation between the number of cyclones (fluctuating) and carbon dioxide (monotonically increasing).
The climatic system has not yet been sufficiently studied. Despite the fact that CO2 is indeed a greenhouse gas, according to the same Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, there is still largely no significant confidence in the susceptibility of the climate to an increase in the concentration of CO2 in the atmosphere. It is estimated that a doubling of atmospheric CO2 concentration - from about 300 ppm in the pre-industrial period to 600 ppm - could raise the planet's average temperature from at least one degree Celsius to a maximum of five degrees. This uncertainty is very great. In any case, many recent studies based on experimental data estimate that the climate's susceptibility to CO2 is significantly lower than models estimate.proposed by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change.
In this case, from a scientific point of view, it is not realistic to ascribe responsibility to humans for the warming observed from the last century to the present day. The proposed alarmist forecasts, therefore, are unreliable, since they are based on models, the results of which contradict the data obtained in the framework of experimental studies. All the evidence suggests that these models overestimate the role of human life and underestimate the natural variability of the climate, mainly associated with the Sun, Moon and oceanic oscillations.
Finally, the media are spreading the message that due to the anthropogenic cause of current climate change, there is an allegedly unanimous understanding among scientists on this subject, and therefore, scientific discussions of this problem have already been closed. However, first of all, it is necessary to realize that the scientific method prescribes that the hypothesis turns into an established scientific theory due to facts, and not due to the number of its adherents.
Be that as it may, there is no supposed agreement on this score. In fact, there is a significant diversity of opinion among specialists - climatologists, meteorologists, geologists, geophysicists, astrophysicists - many of whom recognize the important role of the natural constituent in global warming, noted from the pre-industrial period, as well as from the post-war period to the present day. There are also petitions signed by thousands of scientists who disagree with the anthropogenic global warming hypothesis. These include the opinion expressed in 2007 by the physicist F. Seitz, the former chairman of the US National Academy of Sciences, and the opinion expressed by the Non-governmental International Panel on Climate Change,whose report from 2009 ends with the conclusion that "the climate is regulated by nature, and not by human activity."
In conclusion, given the key role that fossil fuels play in providing humanity with energy, we propose not to support the policy of uncritically reducing the production of carbon dioxide into the atmosphere under the deceptive pretext of climate regulation.
Rome, June 17, 2019.
- Uberto Crescenti, Professor Emeritus of Applied Geology, G. D'Annunzio University, Chieti Pescara, formerly Rector and President of the Italian Geological Society.
- Giuliano Panza, professor of seismology, University of Trieste, member of the National Academy dei Lincei and the National Academy of Sciences, winner of the 2018 International Prize of the American Geophysical Union.
- Alberto Prestininzi, Professor of Applied Geology, University of La Sapienza, Rome, formerly Chief Science Editor of the international journal IJEGE and Director of the Center for Geological Risk Prediction and Control Research.
- Franco Prodi, Professor of Atmospheric Physics, University of Ferrara.
- Franco Battaglia, professor of chemical physics, University of Modena, member of the 2001 Galileo Movement.
- Mario Giaccio, Professor of Technology and Energy Economics, G. D'Annunzio University, Chieti Pescara, formerly Dean of the Faculty of Economics.
- Enrico Miccadei, Professor of Physical Geography and Geomorphology, G. D'Annunzio University, Chieti Pescara
- Nicola Scafetta, Professor of Atmospheric Physics and Oceanography, Frederick II University, Naples
- Antonino Zichichi, professor emeritus of physics, University of Bologna, founder and president of the Ettore Majorana Center for Scientific Culture in Erice.
- Renato Angelo Ricci, Professor Emeritus of Physics, University of Padua, former President of the Italian Society of Physics and the European Society of Physics, member of the 2001 Galileo Movement.
- Aurelio Misiti, Professor of Environmental Engineering, University of La Sapienza, Rome, formerly Dean of the Faculty of Engineering and President of the Superior Council of Public Works.
- Antonio Brambati, Professor of Sedimentology, University of Trieste, responsible for the paleoclimatology project of the National Arctic Exploration Program, formerly President of the National Commission for Oceanography.
- Cesare Barbieri, Professor Emeritus of Astronomy, University of Padua.
- Sergio Bartalucci, physicist, president of the Italian Research Association of Scientists and Technologists.
- Antonio Bianchini, Professor of Astronomy, University of Padua.
- Paolo Bonifazi, formerly Director of the Institute for Space Physics, National Institute of Astrophysics.
- Francesca Bozzano, Professor of Applied Geology, University of La Sapienza, Rome, Director of the CERI Research Center.
- Marcello Buccolini, Professor of Geomorphology, G. D'Annunzio University, Chieti Pescara.
- Paolo Budetta, Professor of Applied Geology, University of Naples.