Today, even people far from the economy keep an eye on the price of oil. It is she who determines the value of a particular currency and the national strategy of states in international politics. According to some scientists, oil, as a cheap energy resource, not only gave birth to modern civilization, but very soon will become the cause of its collapse.
The version of the coming decline of mankind is associated with the depletion of hydrocarbon reserves and was called the Olduvai theory, which we have to test in the near future.
Cradle of humanity
Olduvai is a gorge in northern Tanzania, its length is about 40 kilometers, and the total area reaches 250 square kilometers.
What is it famous for? First of all - by their findings from the prehistoric period. During archaeological work from 1930 to 1960, the remains of the most ancient man, called Homo habilis (Homo habilis), who lived on our planet about two million years ago, were discovered. These people still resembled monkeys, but they had intelligence and used stone tools for hunting.
Their height reached one and a half meters, they moved on two limbs. The average life expectancy was 20-25 years. As a species, Homo habilis existed for at least 500,000 years, hunting and gathering.
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Thanks to such findings, scientists call the Olduvai Gorge the cradle of humanity. By the way, the studies carried out here significantly clarify the classical theory of Friedrich Engels: the first intelligent man at the beginning of his evolution made not tools of labor, but tools of hunting.
The top is already behind
In the early 2000s, the prominent American scientist Richard Duncan visited the Olduvai Gorge. His acquaintance with the history of a man of skill led to the creation of a scientific theory, which Duncan called Olduvai. What is its essence? It is the life of a skilled person that is normal for a biological species of people. It is for this existence that nature created humanity. And in the foreseeable future, people will definitely return to such a life.
According to the calculations of Richard Duncan, the history of modern industrial civilization can be represented as a hill: a path to the top, a certain plateau above and a path down. In his opinion, the summit has long been reached, and mankind will hold on to it for no more than 100 years.
That is, very soon there will be a decline of civilization, which will start a reverse movement - to the level of the 20s of the XX century, then in the direction of the enlightened 18th century, then to the Middle Ages and, ultimately, to the primitive life of ancient Olduvai.
Back to the caves
What is the reason for this forecast of the American analyst? According to Richard Duncan, humanity has risen in its development only thanks to the reserves of available energy in the form of oil and gas. But these reserves are constantly being depleted, and there is nowhere to wait for their replenishment.
Duncan's doctrine is based on mathematical and economic calculations and identifies three main phases of human development. Duncan calls the first of them pre-industrial, it is divided into periods A and B. Period A began three million years ago and ended in the 1760s - when the Scottish engineer James Watt invented and built the steam engine (a patent for it was received in 1769) …
During this period, people used the renewable energy of the sun, wind and water. Then, until the end of the 1920s, period B lasted, a transition to the second phase. This was the era of simple tools and machines, and the beginning of the consumption of non-renewable energy resources, especially oil.
The key indicator of the next phase of human development, according to Richard Duncan, is energy consumption in the amount of 30% of the maximum possible value. It was this figure that was achieved by 1930, when the second, industrial phase of human development began.
Its expected duration should be about 100 years, until the level of consumption of non-renewable energy (that is, oil and gas) reaches 37% - according to Duncan's theory, this is a critical indicator, after which an inevitable decline should follow.
Thus, by 2030, humanity will begin the third phase of development - post-industrial. Energy consumption will decrease and civilization will start counting down. High industrial development will be only temporary, people must gradually return to their natural primitive state.
Survival tutorial
Despite the seeming exoticism of this opinion, the Olduvai theory has many supporters. Their main arguments are that oil reserves are rapidly decreasing, and there are no alternative sources of energy yet.
Moreover, Duncan's theory is backed up by many authoritative studies - in particular, it is based on the ideas of the famous American geophysicist Marion King Hubbert, who in 1956 created the concept of “peak oil”.
Based on his point of view, by 1970 in the United States, and by 1995 all over the world will have reached a historical maximum of oil consumption, which with certain fluctuations will last for several decades. And then society will face two paths - either to develop alternative energy (for example, nuclear), or to degrade and go back in its development.
According to Alexander Bychkov, Deputy Director of the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA), nuclear power currently accounts for 13-15% of all energy consumption - and will remain the same in the coming decades due to the enormous cost of nuclear power plants and the danger of their operation.
Thus, Richard Duncan's Olduvai theory does not seem far-fetched. Its supporters are convinced that in 15 years the oil will run out, and there will not be enough alternative energy sources to ensure the level of development achieved by mankind.
One of the most famous Western bestsellers of recent years is Matthew Stein's book "The End of Technology: How to Survive and Save the Planet on Your Own Strength", published in 2000. The author warns of the impending danger and absolutely seriously gives advice for future life according to the laws of primitive society: how to find fresh water, what plants to eat, what to take instead of the usual pills, etc.
A special place in the book is occupied by the section on self-hypnosis, which should temper the character and resist possible depression against the background of memories of a previous life.
Opponents' opinions
Of course, like any scientific hypothesis, Richard Duncan's Olduvai theory has its opponents. And the author himself does not exclude other scenarios for the development of human society (although, among them, one of the first places is a general nuclear catastrophe).
1987 Nobel laureate in economics Robert Solow, arguing against Richard Duncan, writes that 80% of the US economy in recent decades has been driven by scientific and technological innovation, not cheap energy.
And Kenneth Rogoff, a former IMF chief economist and now a professor at Harvard University, believes that oil prices can stimulate the development of new technologies: as soon as the depletion of black gold is real, its cost will rise sharply - and the seemingly expensive and unprofitable alternative fuel will become a real substitute …
In addition, Duncan's scientific opponents ask the question: why, in fact, the depletion of oil and gas resources should lead humanity to cave conditions of existence? After all, people practically did not use hydrocarbons for a long time - and the “rollback” of civilization, say, to the level of the XVI-XVII centuries, would look much more logical.
Objection is also raised by the speed of regression assumed by Richard Duncan, which, in his opinion, can occur during the life of one or two generations. Is humanity really going to the peak of its development for so long - and is it able to roll off it so quickly?
For whom the Bell Tolls?
Richard Duncan replies to this: the slide to life of Olduvai, unfortunately, will not be long and gradual. As soon as there is a real threat of depletion of energy resources, violent wars for their possession will begin. Because of them, the earth's population will sharply decline - according to Duncan's calculations, by the middle of the 21st century it will drop to two billion people and will continue to decline rapidly.
That is, two-thirds of humanity should die in the near future - from wars, hunger and disease. And the rest will die out and degrade to the level of a caveman.
In Hubbert's graph, total oil production for past and future years is presented as a symmetrical bell-shaped curve. The graph of human development presented by Richard Duncan looks the same. While we are all at the level of the top of this bell. Will he ring for the death of our civilization?
Victor SVETLANIN