Climate change and its causes is one of the most discussed environmental topics in the world. The decision of American leader Donald Trump to unilaterally withdraw the country from the Paris Agreement, which implied a reduction in greenhouse gas emissions, launched a new round of discussion on this issue.
Most experts believe that the main cause of climate change is human activity. But both in the world and in Russia there are supporters of the opposite opinion: if a person influences the climate, then it is insignificant. Let's talk about what arguments they put forward.
If you don't believe, you're a Neanderthal
US Energy Secretary Rick Perry recently said that he does not consider large-scale carbon dioxide emissions to be the main cause of global warming. “The idea that all these scientific questions are completely resolved, and if you don't believe in it, then you are some kind of Neanderthal, that, from my point of view, is completely unacceptable,” Perry added.
In March of this year, a similar statement was made by the new head of the United States' chief environmental agency, the Federal Environmental Protection Agency, Scott Pruitt.
He pointed out that "it is problematic to accurately measure the impact of human activities on climate." He also noted that there is "significant disagreement about the extent of this impact."
Later, Perry nevertheless admitted that man affects climate change, however, made a reservation that science has not yet said its last word on this issue.
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Is the person to blame?
Experts who are skeptical about the fact that the main "culprit" of climate change is man, note that periods of warming have occurred more than once in the history of the Earth, so there is no reason to assume their anthropogenic origin. In addition, over the past 30 years, warming has occurred in some regions, and cooling in others.
Some scientists believe that the main environmental problem of the planet is a decrease in forest area and irreversible climate changes will likely be caused not by greenhouse gases, but by a disruption of the mechanism of global moisture and heat transfer, which is provided by the planet's vegetation. Geographic theories explain long-term climate fluctuations by movements of the earth's crust and changes in the position of continents and oceans.
Decreased albedo and other causes
There are also followers of the theory of natural causes of global warming in Russia. For example, Nikolai Zavalishin, head of the Department of Hydrometeorology and Ecology of the Siberian Regional Research Hydrometeorological Institute (SibNIGMI), associates an increase in temperature with a decrease in the Earth's albedo - the percentage of solar energy reflected into space.
In his opinion, global warming in the world will continue, but it will not lead to large-scale melting of glaciers - after 2022 it may be replaced by a period of gradual cooling, regardless of how much a person burns hydrocarbons.
The scientist drew attention to the fact that periods of temperature rise and fall have occurred before, they are of a recurring nature. According to him, each cycle consists of 10 years of rapid warming and 40-50 years of slow "cooling".
And the scientists of the Institute of Oceanology of the Russian Academy of Sciences, based on the results of studies of the World Ocean in 2009, came to the conclusion that human activity is not a significant, and even more so the main factor of planetary climatic changes.
Greenhouse gases, on which the proponents of the theory of global warming put the main "blame", do affect the temperature processes in the atmosphere, but insignificantly. As the oceanologists explained, "the physical theory of climate developed at the institute estimates this contribution at about 8.5%." In their opinion, the main role (65%) in the temperature distribution in the lower layers of the Earth's air envelope - the troposphere - is played by convection, that is, the movement of warmer air masses upward and cold air masses downward. Another 25% is provided by moisture condensation processes.
As for methane and carbon dioxide, their role in warming is not fully clear. For example, from the observations of American scientists under the leadership of the president of the Institute of Science and Medicine Arthur Robinson, a connection between temperature fluctuations and solar activity is noticeable. And there is practically no such connection with the accumulation of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere. At the same time, the researchers noted that the accumulation of carbon dioxide in the air should lead not to warming, but to a cooling of the climate, and even predicted its onset within the next 20-30 years, taking into account the 60-year cycles of solar activity.
Russian President Vladimir Putin has recently urged not to dramatize the problem of industrial emissions. According to the Russian leader, their volumes are comparable to volcanic emissions.
At the same time, the President stressed that global warming will continue anyway. “The question is not how to prevent it. This is impossible, it may be due to some kind of global cycles on earth, etc. I agree that the question is how to adapt to this,”the Russian leader noted.
At the same time, Putin reaffirmed Russia's commitment to the Paris Climate Accords.
Is there anything you can do?
In any case, few argue that the concentration of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere is increasing and the average global temperature is increasing.
In 2015, scientists for the first time in modern history recorded an increase in the average temperature of the planet by more than 1 ° C compared to the 19th century, when monitoring of changes in global temperature began. Experts predict that a 2 ° C excess over pre-industrial levels will have irreversible consequences for people and ecosystems.
- The climate on the planet as a whole will become more humid.
- Sea level in the XXI century will rise to 1 m.
“Up to 30–40% of plant and animal species may disappear as their habitats change faster than they can adapt to these changes.
- The species composition of the forest will change, and intensive melting of glaciers will begin.
- Desalination of the ocean due to melting ice will cause the Gulf Stream to change.
- The frequency and severity of anomalous phenomena such as extreme winds and heat waves, tsunamis and floods will increase.
The human factor in climate change may be negligible compared to the scale of natural processes, but still there. According to climatologists, in order to prevent a dramatic development of events and keep the temperature rise within the range of up to 2 ° C, the countries of the world need to halve global emissions by 2050 compared to 1990 levels, and by the end of the XXI century - to reduce them to zero.