Abstract of the article of the scientific journal Nautilus.
According to Phil Torres, author of the article, the idea of colonizing space seems attractive for several reasons. For example, American astrophysicist Neil DeGrasse Tyson believes that colonization will improve the economy and provide inspiration for the next generation of scientists. Elon Musk is sure that humanity must populate other planets in order to survive if some kind of catastrophe happens.
Colonization of space is also an opportunity to build a utopia using the colossal resources of the Universe. For example, astrobiologist Milan Tsirkovic calculated that if humanity colonizes the Virgo Supercluster, then 10⁴⁶ people will be born every hundred years. Swedish philosopher Nick Bostrom believes that if the colonization of space fails, the potential of these "valuable lives" will be lost. But perhaps the lives of these trillions of people are not as valuable as Bostrom believes, and the era of space colonization will look more like a dystopia.
In an article published in Futures magazine, Phil Torres goes into more detail on this issue. He comes to the conclusion that the colonization of the universe may lead to the extinction of the human race.
To argue his opinion, Torres turns to evolutionary biology and the theory of international relations. According to a 2018 scientific study by the University of Oxford, humanity is the only technologically advanced life form capable of colonizing space.
The emergence of new species
Torres invites readers to imagine what will happen when humanity populates Mars and other relatively nearby exoplanets suitable for life. Each planet has its own natural conditions that will influence evolution and lead to the emergence of new species. The same is true for artificially created conditions on spaceships (for example, the O'Neill Cylinder).
Promotional video:
The process of "cyborgization" - the use of technology to change or improve the human body - is likely to influence evolution even more than the environment. The result will be life forms whose cognitive, emotional and physical abilities will be very different from those of humans.
In other words, natural selection and cyborgization will lead to species diversification, Torres said. But there will be differences in ideology as well. Colonies will create their own cultures, languages, governments, religions, norms, and the like.
Over time, different species will find it difficult to understand each other, which will lead to mutual distrust. Therefore, states will begin to take measures to ensure their own security, which will inevitably lead to conflicts: the militarization of one state will be seen as a threat to the security of another. In international relations theory, this situation is called the "security dilemma."
Security dilemma and containment policy
Thomas Hobbes found a solution to the dilemma. In Leviathan, Hobbes writes that anarchy should be replaced by a hierarchy, where people will live according to the law, which is monitored by an independent government body. However, Torres believes that the social contract theory will not work on a universe scale. The universe is too huge for the state to successfully enforce laws in all its corners.
Future civilizations can try to achieve peace through containment. The basic principle of this policy can be rephrased as follows: “I will not attack you if you do not attack me. I have enough strength to destroy you. " The relationship between the United States and the USSR during the Cold War was built precisely on the doctrine of "mutual assured destruction."
Torres believes that containment policy is ineffective in the era of space colonization. A huge number of different civilizations will live in the Universe, so it will be very difficult to determine who attacked first.
Future civilizations will also create incredibly powerful weapons. Some scientists believe that the universe is now in a metastable state, followed by a more stable one. This change will be possible thanks to the powerful particle accelerator. Once in the hands of a group advocating mass suicide, the accelerator could become a weapon that would destroy the universe.
Torres believes that all of the above examples should make organizations like SpaceX, NASA and Mars One seriously think about the social problems that are likely to arise from space colonization.
According to Torres, in the past, humanity could have avoided many mistakes if organizations and decision-makers more often discussed what problems this or that action would lead to. Now humanity still has time to consider all the consequences of the colonization of space and prevent mistakes.