A stable and self-sufficient population of a million people could appear on Mars within 100 years, as evidenced by new simulation research by Kevin Cannon and Daniel Britt of the University of Central Florida. In their research, they relied on a plan drawn up by Elon Musk of SpaceX. To begin with, he planned a landing on the Red Planet of 12 people, after which numerous spaceships should begin transporting passengers, from 100 to 200 people per flight, which will be carried out at every opportunity about once every 26 months. Population growth will be driven by both immigration and the birth of children on Mars.
Cannon and Britt, in their study, show that four of the five main "consumables" needed for Martian settlements (energy, water, oxygen and building materials) can be mined on the surface of Mars in sufficient quantities. On Mars, only food cannot be obtained from raw materials. So how do you fix your power problem? The authors propose to grow plants, breed insects and beef cattle of a cellular-genetic direction.
In the past, planting has been suggested quite frequently, but planting high-calorie crops is essential to feed so many people. Breeding insects is also very beneficial, as it will provide a large number of calories per unit area. Indoor crickets are best suited for this and are already used in some cereal bars.
Protein-rich food can also be obtained from cells grown in bioreactors. Interestingly, fish on Mars will be more popular than caged meat, because this culture can be stored at lower temperatures (around 20 degrees Celsius), while warm-blooded animal cells need 37 degrees Celsius.
I find these ideas and extrapolations quite intriguing. But life on Mars may not be as easy as it seems, even if people enjoy the fruits of technological progress. Growing plants in Martian soil will be very difficult, because there is a large amount of perchloric acid salt and other chemicals in sediment. The same authors conducted another study on this topic, using soil similar in composition to Martian. So: their plants quickly died, and earthworms were suffocating in this land.
You also need to take biological factors into account. It is far from clear whether humans will be able to easily bear children on Mars, because Martian gravity is only 38% of Earth's. The human body adapts to earthly conditions, and when a constant physical value is two-thirds less than the usual one, unexpected complications may arise. Martian farmers may face other challenges, including unfamiliar plant diseases that will destroy crops, causing famine among the settlers.
On the positive side, technologies for efficient and sustainable food production on Mars have the potential to benefit many more people who are adapting to climate change on Earth, and thus can prove invaluable to our entire civilization.
Musk's idea of a million people living on Mars is unlikely to come true in the near future. But it is becoming more real as NASA's independent planetary control committee recently released new guidelines that could lead to a relaxation of sterility requirements for landing in certain regions of Mars where local life is unlikely to exist. If people fly to the Red Planet in passenger spaceships to settle there, they will most likely settle in these places.
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Dirk Schulze-Makuch