Our country, despite the measures taken to diversify the economy, is still dependent on natural resources. According to the Ministry of Finance, revenues from foreign economic activity, which is the largest item in the RF budget replenishment, are 90% raw materials. In addition, 1/5 of the all-Russian treasury is taxes and fees for the use of natural resources. Our budget is 86% dependent on subsoil use.
The most important resource wealth of Russia is oil and gas. The revenue side of the budget is directly related to hydrocarbons. According to the Ministry of Finance, in 2015 the budget of the Russian Federation amounted to 13.55 billion rubles, of which 5.86 billion, or 43%, were oil and gas revenues. From 2011 to 2014, these figures exceeded 50%.
Oil and gas revenues are the main source of fuel for various sectors of the Russian economy, and the decline in financial revenues from the sale of oil and gas can seriously affect their work. When the oil and gas sector falls out of the general economic field, the foreign exchange earnings of the state will sharply decrease - this will lead to the fact that we will actually be unable to purchase imported goods.
The early 2000s, when, after an unprecedented rise in prices for "black gold", our country experienced a real economic boom, testifies to how important the state of the oil and gas industry is for the Russian economy. It was then, according to the Financial Times, that the conditions were created for the emergence of a middle class in Russia.
Many experts argue that today there is no longer a direct dependence of the Russian economy on the extraction of raw materials. Thus, the share of minerals in the structure of GDP does not exceed 9%. The raw materials segment in the general structure of export revenues is gradually decreasing and this affects the budget not as sharply as before.
However, it is difficult to imagine that Russia will be able to completely abandon the use of its subsoil. If, for example, Western countries decide to impose an embargo on the supply of oil and gas from Russia, then the domestic economy will simply collapse. Almost all experts are sure of this.
The dependence on hydrocarbons not only allowed our country to earn money, but plunged it into serious crises. One of these happened in the mid-1980s, when oil prices collapsed fourfold. Albeit indirectly, but noticeably cheaper energy resources contributed to the collapse of the Soviet economy, with which came socio-political instability and, ultimately, the collapse of the country.
The fall in oil prices in 2008-2009 reacted painfully to the Russian economy. Job cuts and the closure of factories have become commonplace in our country. Even the restoration of oil prices, starting in 2011, could not return the country to the pre-crisis level.
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Analysts at the Financial Times are confident that in modern Russia, political life and the dynamics of oil prices are interconnected. They recall that the 1979 energy crisis not only provoked the Islamic Revolution in Iran, but also became one of the reasons for the introduction of Soviet troops into Afghanistan. The publication hints that another serious drop in prices for "black gold" may cause Russia's foreign policy activity.
Today, falling oil prices with strong government institutions and a solid stabilization fund can no longer lead to catastrophic consequences for the state, but this will certainly affect the rate of economic growth and inflation. Recently, the Russian government, when planning the budget, lays down minimum prices for energy carriers and is looking for ways to reduce the economy's dependence on the raw materials sector.
But what will happen if the oil and gas industry of the Russian economy ceases to exist? Economic observer Mikhail Melnikov paints a far from rosy picture. According to his forecasts, Russia will conclude contracts for the supply of energy resources with the countries of the Persian Gulf, and at the same time, to solve problems with electricity, it will be forced to build additional nuclear power plants. The National Welfare Fund will begin to rapidly dry up, the import of consumer goods will stop, and Russia will slowly slide towards the situation of the early 90s.
How to get off the "oil needle"? There is no single recipe. Some economists advise focusing on the development of the domestic market, others urge to start modernizing manufacturing technologies, others recommend increasing the export of non-primary products, others insist that it is time for Russia to make breakthroughs in mechanical engineering and the IT industry. One thing is clear that if the oil and gas sector collapses, all this will have to be implemented.
There are already certain successes in overcoming the dependence on raw materials. So, in 2015, revenues from the export of mechanical engineering increased by 10% and reached $ 26 billion, which is no longer so critical against the background of revenue from gas sales, which in the same year amounted to $ 41 billion.
Another industry that can partially replace raw materials is agriculture. We have a colossal potential for the development of agriculture and animal husbandry, and in terms of conditions and opportunities for growing grain, our country is ahead of many competitors.
At the end of the 2017-2018 season export of the main Russian agricultural crop - wheat - reached 41 million tons, which made our country the first among exporters of this type of grain. For comparison, the second country on the list, the United States, has an indicator of only 24 million tons. The export volumes of barley (6.2 million tons) and corn (5.7 million tons) were also record-breaking for Russia.
But the stable position in the oil and gas industry has not been canceled, since it also serves as an indicator of trust in the current government. According to experts, the prolonged fall in hydrocarbon prices will affect the social situation in the country.
Former First Deputy Minister of Economic Development and Trade of the Russian Federation Mikhail Dmitriev believes that in this case, "the government will face larger expressions of public protests." And economist Vladimir Milov already considers the current oil prices as low, noting that for sufficient maneuverability the government needs a price of at least $ 150 per barrel.
In Russia, for a long time, oil and gas prices will determine both the state of the economy and the level of income of the population. Charles Robertson, chief economist at Renaissance capital, says that at the moment Russia must do everything possible to ensure economic growth and reduce dependence on the oil and gas sector, otherwise large-scale social changes cannot be avoided. In his words, if it were not for gas and oil, then Russia would long ago have become a country with a "strong democracy."
Taras Repin
