The last super-eruption was more than 20,000 years ago, and according to new data, they happen 19 times more often than expected.
Scientists from the University of Bristol (UK) analyzed the average frequency of supervolcanic eruptions over the past several hundred thousand years and found that they occur about two dozen times more often than previously thought. Moreover, it seems that the next eruption should have happened ten thousand years ago, and we all "live on borrowed time." A related article was published in Earth and Planetary Science Letters.
Previous estimates of the frequency of volcanic super-eruptions indicated that they occur once every 45-714 thousand years, with an average value of more than 320 thousand years. However, a new database of such eruptions, collected by the authors of the work, indicates that everything is somewhat wrong - eruptions occur once every 5.2-48.0 thousand years, and for the last time the figure of 17 thousand years is statistically most suitable. Interestingly, the last such super-eruption is, apparently, the eruption of Oruanui. This New Zealand volcano 26,500 years ago erupted over a thousand cubic kilometers of various rocks. Tellingly, at this moment, the already harsh climate of the Ice Age further deteriorated - the glacial maximum came.
The eruptions of supervolcanoes, along with the falls of asteroids (however, according to a number of hypotheses, the latter can cause the former, that is, the phenomena are related to each other), are the largest natural disasters that have happened on Earth. A typical super-eruption releases enough ash and sulfur dioxide to create a prolonged volcanic winter. According to recent reports, after the last super-eruption of Yellowstone, such a volcanic winter lasted 80 years in a row. At this time, the biomass of plants is sharply reduced, they are hampered by both severe cold and a drop in illumination. This causes hunger among animals, dragging on for decades and the death of many land creatures.
The fact that super-eruptions occur once every 17.0 thousand years and the last was 26.5 thousand years ago does not mean that the next will happen tomorrow. But, definitely, this means that the chances of it are slightly higher than if the last super-eruption happened 17 thousand years ago or less. Today, no country in the world has any plans of action in the event of a volcanic winter. Therefore, such an event will be extremely difficult in terms of consequences also due to its inevitable surprise for the state authorities.
For more information about supervolcanoes, catastrophic eruptions that led to mass extinctions and the fatal role of meteorites, read our large material: "The wrath of the Earth: how supervolcanoes will destroy humanity."
IVAN ORTEGA