What are the reasons for the unprecedented hurricane in Moscow, June snow and cold warming? Is global warming a reality or is it a myth? Let's figure out, together with experts, how and why the climate is changing in 2017.
THE FIVE MAIN WEATHER ANOMALIES
First, let's try to understand what is happening with the weather in Russia and around the world. And then we will figure out who is to blame and what will happen next.
Vadim Zavodchenkov, Leading Specialist of the Phobos Center, compiled for KP a rating of weather anomalies that Russia experienced in May and early June 2017:
1. Hurricane in Moscow
Wind gusts reached 30 meters per second, which has never happened in the entire history of meteorological observations. The hurricane was caused by a cold atmospheric front. “Such fronts always come with rain, thunderstorms and strong winds. And although the process is classical, but the degree of its development is extraordinary, due to the large temperature contrasts intensified by the metropolis: asphalt heats up one and a half times more than the ground, and the greater the temperature contrast, the higher the wind speed,”says Vadim Zavodchenkov. None of the weather anomalies caused so much damage in such a short time - just a few hours.
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2. Tornadoes in Tatarstan, Altai, Urals
Extremely atypical phenomena for our country, especially at this time of the year. For Tatarstan, this is the first case in history; in Altai, tornadoes occur once every 10 years.
3. Cold temperature anomalies
The leader in cold weather is the center and the entire European part of Russia. Last May was the coldest in several decades, the temperature did not reach the climatic norm of more than 3 degrees. Even in June we were swept away by snowfall and night frosts! For the era of global warming, in which we live, all this is very unusual.
Vadim Zavodchenkov, Leading Specialist of the Phobos Center. Photo: IVAN PROKHOROV / kp.ru
4. Arctic invasions
But not all of Russia is freezing. In southern Siberia - Barnaul, Krasnoyarsk, Abakan, Irkutsk, Novosibirsk - heat records were broken in May. But even there, waves of extreme heat were replaced by equally sharp cold snaps. “Usually in May in Siberia there are two incursions of the Arctic air, this year there were four in a month. Such abrupt and frequent weather changes are also non-standard phenomena. Incidentally, they were the causes of tornadoes: icy air from the Arctic collided with hot air, powerful cumulus clouds formed in contrast, and whirlwinds of tornadoes swirled beneath them,”explains the meteorologist.
5. Heavy rains and floods in the Stavropol Territory and other regions of the North Caucasus
World temperature rise graph. Photo: DMITRY POLUKHIN / kp.ru
THE ARCTIC IS GREATING - WE ARE FREEZING
- The reason for all these anomalies in 2017 - warm, cold, wet and windy - is, oddly enough, one. Global warming, - assures Vadim Zavodchenkov.
Where is the logic? He is ready to explain:
- Cold air is denser and heavier than warm air - we know this from school. On the scale of the Earth, cold air from the poles, due to its weight, "flows down" to southern latitudes under the influence of gravity. And since the planet rotates counterclockwise, when viewed from above at the North Pole, in the middle latitudes, air flows begin to move from west to east. This is how the west-east transfer of air masses arises, which creates a normal, familiar weather for us. Cyclones come to the center of Russia from the Atlantic, bring rains, go further to the Volga and the Urals, it is sunny and dry here in the intervals between cyclones. But this is normal. It's different now.
The Arctic is extremely warm: global warming at the poles is faster than the average on Earth. In the spring of 2017, the average temperature in the Arctic latitudes was 3 degrees higher than the norm, in winter the anomalies reached 6 degrees. The area of ice in the Arctic Ocean in April was record low for this time of year. And open water is always warmer than ice, because of this, the air temperature also rises.
What's the bottom line? The flow of cold air into southern latitudes is not as strong as usual. As a result, the west-eastern jet, carrying cyclones along the usual routes, also weakens. Instead, they rush along a sinusoid: now from north to south, now from south to north. This is called meridional air mass transfer, and it increasingly determines our weather. The frequent Arctic invasions I spoke of are of this nature. Air from the north "sinks" far to the south.
And the cold May in the European part of Russia is the result of the so-called blocking. This is when the meridional streams are trapped by anticyclones and cannot move anywhere - the air flows for weeks from north to south or from south to north. Remember the heat of 2010? It was a blocking process. Now, too, but with a different sign. For a whole month, Moscow and neighboring regions received only cold air from the north.
Temperature rise graph in Russia. Photo: DMITRY POLUKHIN / kp.ru
Our expert is also supported by the Secretary General of the World Meteorological Organization Petteri Taalas:
- The poles affect the weather at lower latitudes, where hundreds of millions of people live. Warming Arctic and shrinking sea ice are associated with extreme events such as prolonged cold spells, heatwaves and droughts in the northern hemisphere, he quoted from an official WMO statement.
NOT JUST WARMING
In fact, any hint of global warming now sounds like a mockery. Is snow in June your vaunted global warming? And the fact that on June 15 in Moscow +15 degrees - too? Well, thank you!
What is happening to the climate on a scale not only of Russia, but of the entire planet? Alexey Kokorin, Head of the Climate and Energy Program of the World Wildlife Fund (WWF) in Russia, says:
- Definitely, the planet Earth is warming, and this is not my opinion, but a scientific, proven fact. But it's not that simple.
Yeah, we guessed it. If it were just warming, it would be hot now! I just want to be sarcastic. But let's listen further:
- In all the oceans of the planet, the upper layer of water is gradually warming up to a depth of 700 - 1000 meters. And even at a depth of 2 kilometers, an increase in temperature is noticeable. And the ocean is the main element of the climate system. The atmosphere, in contrast to the ocean, is very mobile and changeable. And if the ocean is clearly warming, then in the atmosphere - climate change.
Indeed: almost all scientific (not online newspaper) publications use this very term - climate change, climate change, and not global warming. Not because there is no warming. But because warming is not the only and not the worst thing that happens to the climate.
YULIA SMIRNOVA