Recently, there have been several frightening forecasts of the death of humanity in the next century. One of the popular versions of the future apocalypse is the so-called Barrier version. It predicts the death of any intelligent life due to contradictions inherent in the mind itself. There is a hypothesis that explains the existence of the Barrier by elementary overpopulation, when civilization crosses the 10 billion Rubicon and plunges into the abyss of endless wars for resources. Demographers call this "Shanghai Syndrome", symbolizing the disorderly development of China's largest metropolis as a result of uncontrolled population growth. Everything can end with a pandemic of "Leningrad disease", or alimentary dystrophy, which massively affected the inhabitants of the city during the blockade. Thus, "technological humanity" will be destroyed,and the survivors will find themselves in the Stone Age.
Growth limits
The debate on resource depletion began in the 1970s, when a group of futurists, ecologists, demographers, and sociologists made a talk entitled “The Limits to Growth” at a meeting of an international public organization (think tank) known as the Club of Rome. The report includes forecasts that the 21st century will be marked by uncontrolled population growth, depletion of natural resources and environmental pollution.
The population explosion is traditionally considered to be the main among these challenges of the future. However, the birth rate peaked in the 1960s, and population growth rates have been steadily declining since the end of the last century. Nevertheless, by the end of our century, earthlings will be no less than 12 billion. In addition, the composition of the population will change in almost all countries: the proportion of older people will sharply increase and the percentage of young people will decline.
By the end of the next century, stabilization may occur at the level of 12-13 billion earthlings, but at the same time, most likely, the degradation of the natural systems that provide us with life will reach a catastrophic level, and, of course, an acute food problem will arise.
It turns out that in a fairly near future, the impact of mankind on nature will reach a critical limit, beyond which flora and fauna will no longer be able to recover.
There are also mysterious processes in modern demography. For example, in Africa, food production has not increased for a long time due to unfavorable natural factors, but the population almost doubles every couple of decades.
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At the beginning of this century, UN experts discovered two more alarming trends in the food sector: the growth of food production slowed down significantly and their cost began to increase.
The worst thing is massive famine
In the 1980s, the prominent Soviet scientist and popularizer of science Sergei Petrovich Kapitsa (1928-2012) drew attention to the fact that the geopolitical transformation of the world is shifting the center of economic and technological development to the Asian region. The economies of the largest countries in terms of demographic power - China and India - are growing here. The governments of these countries have set a course for the growth of the well-being of the people, therefore the birth rate is falling and the problem of overpopulation, at least in our century, does not cause any particular concern.
Professor Kapitsa's theory is now being developed by the director of the Institute for Demographic Research, Igor Ivanovich Beloborodoe. He believes that the traditional theory of overpopulation is in many ways contrary to modern statistics. In particular, this applies to the food crisis. According to the calculations of Russian demographers, the rate of population growth by the end of this century should decrease by at least five times. This will be especially pronounced in Europe and North America.
However, many experts consider the problem of overpopulation extremely controversial not only in itself, but also in its consequences. The worst of them, of course, is massive famine, which can cover many countries like a kind of pandemic. At the same time, the World Health Organization considers hunger and thirst as the main threats to health, because it is they that cause a third of childhood deaths and a tenth of all diseases.
In turn, Novosibirsk sociologists and demographers believe that, despite the optimistic conclusions of Professor Kapitsa's supporters, the world's population will not stabilize at a level below 12 billion people, and, exceeding the 14 billion mark, will only slow down the growth rate.
Will GMOs Save Humanity?
According to the calculations of a Moscow group of economists, futurologists and demographers, by the middle of this century, the needs of the 9 billion mankind will almost double from the current level. Therefore, Russian experts predict that only modern biotechnologies, including genetic modifications and innovative methods of watering and feeding plants, can save the situation. Today, only genetically modified plants can successfully resist insect pests that destroy a third of all crops, and only GM crops can sprout in saline soil with a sharp lack of moisture.
It turns out that already in the second half of this century, various types of genetically modified foods will become a key nutritional factor for the majority of the population of Africa and Southeast Asia. This should destroy the absurd arguments against GMOs used by multinational companies in pursuit of profit. They are trying to prove that only their "organic products" are suitable for nutrition, and GM crops are harmful to health and even life. Their political lobby in the US Congress and the European Parliament even achieved mandatory meaningless labeling of products "Does not contain GMOs." In fact, it is simply not realistic to feed the population of the Third World, which is growing by several million every month, without the widespread use of genetic engineering. In addition, urbanization processes that have gone very far will soon lead tothat the overwhelming majority of the population of developing countries, not to mention the industrialized countries, will live in cities, ceasing to engage in agriculture.
Several UN experts quite seriously believe that only … insects will be able to stop the impending famine. They argue that some species of large locusts and grasshoppers can be bred in special enclosed enclosures. However, today this most accessible type of protein food is included in the traditional diet of more than two billion Arabs, Thais, Negroes and Indians.
A recent report from the UN Food Committee emphasizes that insects are more concentrated in protein, fat, calcium, iron and zinc than elite "marbled beef," not to mention lamb and chicken.
However, exotic locust flour and dried grasshoppers have a more familiar alternative in the form of animal feed. Fish farming and the cultivation of nutritious algae should also not be discounted. In addition to valuable food additives, the development of mariculture can produce a bountiful harvest of oysters, mussels and kelp on man-made marine plantations.
Population survival
One of the founding fathers of Soviet science fiction, Alexander Belyaev, published in 1928 the amazing novel Eternal Bread. In it, he anticipated many of the remarkable achievements of biochemistry of the future and talked about the discovery of a culture of the simplest organisms, which multiplies and grows rapidly without any care. This mass is completely ready to use and resembles a tasty and satisfying dough. Soon the discovery gets out of the control of its author and spreads all over the world. Unfortunately, it soon becomes clear that over time, the growth rate of culture increases dramatically, and it fills everything around. The situation is saved only by the fact that at the last moment it is possible to remove a certain fungus, which instantly destroys the "eternal bread".
Critics at one time wrote that the main danger of such discoveries is not that edible biomass, like the modern "gray goo", will fill everything around, but that a well-fed person will lose incentives for further development. The reality turned out to be somewhat different, and genetic engineers are persistently looking for biotechnology that can feed billions of earthlings. So far, there are not so many achievements on this path, because artificial products are much more expensive than their natural counterparts.
Unfortunately, the modern Western consumer society is poorly aware of the danger of the development of the "Shanghai syndrome". This is especially true of the problems of providing the population with food and fresh water in many developing countries. For example, the prerequisites for the emergence of "water wars" in Africa and the Middle East are constantly emerging. For example, in the African Sahel zone, between the Sahara and Central Africa, the zone of total desertification is rapidly growing. Surprisingly, statistics show that the poverty-stricken population of these areas continues to increase despite everything, although there is massive death from lack of water and food in the absence of medical care.
Recently, the World Health Organization presented shocking data: tens of thousands of people die every day from hunger and related diseases. In fact, this means that while you were reading this text, several hundred people were killed by starvation, and half of them were children.
Magazine: Secrets of the 20th century №36. Author: Oleg Faig