Many say that the authorities are going too far with their measures against the coronavirus, but in fact this disease is no worse than the usual seasonal flu. A Danish popular science magazine asked experts to explain why this is not the case. In many ways, the coronavirus is much more dangerous.
You've probably heard the opinion that the authorities are going too far with their warnings about the coronavirus, and that the virus can be compared to the usual seasonal flu.
This is not true.
Coronavirus is more serious than influenza in a number of ways.
Here are five differences between the flu and the new viral disease COVID-19.
1. Coronavirus is more contagious
Coronavirus, like influenza, is transmitted by airborne droplets. But it's twice as contagious.
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An average person with the flu infects an additional 1.1 people. That is, its reproduction rate is 1.1.
The new coronavirus has a reproduction rate of 2.5. This is evidenced by studies conducted in the Chinese province of Hubei, from where the virus spread.
This means that a person infected with coronavirus infects an average of 2.5 people.
“The reason the coronavirus is twice as infectious as the flu is probably because none of us have immunity to it, because it’s a new virus and no one has had the disease before,” says Christian Weisse. Wejse, Lecturer at the Institute of Public Health at Aarhus University.
Coronavirus particles others
Also, the high infectivity of the coronavirus may be associated with the way it enters the body.
Usually, a person becomes ill with an airborne virus transmitted by inhalation of disease-causing particles.
Immunity copes with some particles before they can penetrate deep into the body. It seems that immunity is fighting off particles of coronavirus and influenza virus with varying effectiveness, says Jan Pravsgaard Chrisensen, professor of immunology at Copenhagen University.
“It is possible that fewer particles of the coronavirus are required to cause disease than particles of the influenza virus,” he says.
2. More people die from coronavirus
Scientists estimate that the death rate from the new coronavirus is about six times higher than from the usual seasonal flu.
“That is why we are so alarmed,” says Christian Weisse.
The numbers are still inaccurate, but the average estimated death rate from coronavirus is 0.6%.
The common seasonal flu kills about 0.1% of those infected.
Inaccurate data
The exact death rate from COVID-19 is still unknown, because different countries calculate the number of infected differently.
In countries where not many people are tested for coronavirus, there are very few reported cases. Therefore, it may seem that there are more deaths from the new disease than in countries where larger screenings are carried out and cases are recorded more carefully.
“In the United States, the mortality rate from it is now 3.5%, because very few people were tested there. And in South Korea, where many were examined, the mortality rate was 0.6%,”says Christian Weise.
In Italy, the death rate has now reached 6.2%. According to Christian Weisse, this may also be due to the fact that the outbreak has hit the country so hard that its health system can no longer keep up with the development of events and cannot examine everyone.
In addition, a very significant proportion of the Italian population is elderly, who are more at risk of dying from coronavirus than young people. More than two million Italians are over 85 years old, and life expectancy in Italy is one of the highest in Europe.
3. More people get severe illnesses
Thousands of Danes fall ill with the flu every year. The elderly and people with poor health are especially at risk of getting to the hospital.
During the 2017-2018 flu season, 971 people were hospitalized with him. Of these, 50 were seriously ill and were in intensive care, according to the Danish State Serum Institute.
The new coronavirus appears to be much more severe.
“In Hubei, 3-5% of the infected were in intensive care. If everything goes as badly in Denmark, we will have a health system collapse like in Italy,”says Christian Weisse.
The Health Department conducted a risk assessment and said that approximately 600,000 Danes could be infected with the coronavirus. If we apply the data from Hubei to this figure, it turns out that 4% of these 600 thousand people can go to intensive care. And this is 24 thousand people.
However, things are unlikely to be that bad. The Health Department believes that 2.8 thousand Danes with coronavirus will receive resuscitation in the next three months.
4. Coronavirus affects the lungs
The influenza virus consists of disease-causing particles that are deposited on receptors in the nose, mouth and throat.
Coronavirus most often affects the receptors of the lungs.
“This means that the virus is multiplying in the lower lungs, while the flu is in the upper respiratory tract. Thus, coronavirus is pneumonia that affects breathing and the ability of the lungs to oxygenate the blood. This is probably why people die from it more often than from the flu,”says Jan Pravsgor.
In particularly unlucky patients, the coronavirus manifests itself as a very severe form of pneumonia.
Influenza and coronavirus may look similar
However, most people do not get that badly, and although the coronavirus and influenza virus affect different organs, their symptoms often overlap, making it difficult to tell the difference.
“These two diseases often manifest themselves in the same way,” emphasizes Jan Pravsgor. - 80% of those infected with the coronavirus experience only mild symptoms of a cold. So people keep working and infecting others before they find out they have the coronavirus."
When the elderly and frail people get the flu, they too can have a complication of pneumonia. But, unlike the coronavirus, this pneumonia is not caused by the virus itself.
“When a person gets the flu, their lungs can be damaged and bacteria can be accessed. But with influenza, pneumonia is usually only a secondary effect,”says Jan Pravsgor.
5. No one has immunity against COVID-19
Viral diseases are characterized by the fact that, having been ill once, a person acquires immunity. This means that we rarely get the same virus twice.
After many get sick with some disease, herd immunity is formed.
“The more people get sick, the harder it is for the virus to spread,” explains Jan Pravsgaard Christensen.
Every year, different variants of the coronavirus, as well as influenza viruses, cause us colds. But the new coronavirus is unlike most coronaviruses previously known.
“The disease that affects people now is so different from the rest that no one has immunity against it. This virus is new for everyone,”explains Jan Pravsgor.
When no one is immune, the virus spreads with lightning speed.
Many people have flu immunity
Immunity is formed when the body's defense system recognizes molecules on the surface of the virus and develops antibodies against them, which destroy the particles of the virus, preventing a person from getting sick.
You must have heard that flu viruses mutate and a new variant appears every year.
But although viruses do mutate, the different versions of seasonal flu are not so different from each other that the immune system cannot recognize them.
Therefore, most of us are much better protected from the flu virus than from the new coronavirus.
“Most people have had the flu at least once in their lives, so the population always has some basic immunity,” says Jan Pravsgor Christensen.
Human immunity "forgets" colds
If you have childhood illnesses such as measles or chickenpox, you will develop immunity for the rest of your life. But immunity to colds viruses in humans is not formed in this way.
"The immunity 'remembers' cold viruses not so well, just like the variants of the coronavirus that we already know. Immunity will respond to them for a maximum of four to five years," says Yan Pravsgor. "Is the situation the same with the new coronavirus, I don't know. It will take several years to understand how stable immunity is formed."
Department of Health Risk Assessment
Here are some of the predictions from the Department of Health.
- It is highly likely that in Denmark people will also start infecting each other in a chain, like in Northern Italy.
- The epidemic will develop for about three months, and most of the infected will be in the middle of this period.
- Approximately 10% of the population of Denmark will become infected, that is, about 600 thousand people.
- It is estimated that about 10% of those infected will seek help from doctors, which means that they will have to deal with about 60 thousand people.
- 80% of those infected will get sick in a mild or moderate form.
- 15% will require inpatient treatment.
- 5% will be in intensive care.
- This means that, according to estimates, about 11.2 thousand patients will be admitted to hospitals in three months of the epidemic. 2.8 thousand will need resuscitation measures.
Anne Ringgaard