The decline is most noticeable in European countries, while in Africa it is not observed.
The Global Burden of Disease (GBD) - the largest epidemiological study in the world - is published in the Lancet. It shows birth statistics for the period 1950 to 2017. According to these data, the birth rate in the world for the indicated period has decreased by almost half.
The total fertility rate is a coefficient showing the average number of children born to one woman in her entire life. In 1950, it was 4.7, and now it has dropped to 2.4. However, it falls unevenly around the world. For example, in the UK, the birth rate is approximately equal to that observed in other Western European countries, and is kept at around 1.7. At the same time, in Niger (West Africa), it reaches 7.1.
The general birth rate over the past 67 years.
When the rate falls below 2.1, the population begins to decline, according to Professor Christopher Murray of the University of Washington. He noted:
“We have reached the border when half of the countries have birth rates below replacement levels, so if nothing is done, the population there will begin to decline. One way or another, but these societies will have to grapple with the coming problem. Soon we will observe a situation when there will be more grandparents than grandchildren. Think about the social and economic consequences that will come from this."
Countries with the lowest fertility rates.
Countries with the highest birth rates.
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In his opinion, this state of affairs will immediately lead to several problems associated, on the one hand, with a shortage of labor, and, on the other, with increased immigration and the resulting difficulties.
Some countries have already begun to change their demographic policies. For example, China has already canceled the well-known principle of "one family - one child" due to the decline in statistics.
South Korea has one of the lowest fertility rates at 1.2, according to the study. Earlier, data from the Research Service of the National Assembly showed that the population of South Korea, due to low fertility, is threatened with complete extinction by 2750.
Alexey Evglevsky